Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Guerrero Starts to Find His Groove

Prop bet #1: Nado does it

Third baseman Nolan Arenado leads the St. Louis Cardinals in base hits and is second in runs batted in. Arenado is coming off an 0-fer performance in the Cardinals’ 4-2 loss against the Mets, but he’s been solid at the plate of late.

Detroit Tigers right-hander Kenta Maeda is coming off his best start of the year, going five scoreless innings in a 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. He allowed just three hits and struck out five. Still, his overall numbers this season have been ugly. He's allowed seven home runs (most in the AL among qualified starters) and is striking out fewer than seven batters per nine innings.

Arenado bats in the heart of the St. Louis batting order, typically clean-up against right-handed starters. With on-base experts Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar batting ahead of him, he will have plenty of opportunities to cash in a run.

Maeda hasn't been working deep into his starts, even being limited to five innings in his best outing. Should he depart early, he will give way to a Tigers bullpen with a sparkling 2.71 ERA but the peripherals haven't been as kind. Specifically, Tigers relievers have surrendered the lowest BABIP in baseball at .221, resulting in a 4.01 FIP. That dam is going to break sooner rather than later and Arenado could be the one to do it if he doesn't break through in the early innings.

Nolan Arenado prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Forget it, Jake

It’s been an ugly start to the year for the Miami Marlins, who have the worst record in baseball at 6-23 as they close their 4-game set with the Washington Nationals.

That gives Washington’s second-year man Jake Irvin a chance to get right after he was bombed in an 11-2 drubbing against the Dodgers last time out. He gave up a season-high 12 hits in just 4 2/3 innings of work while allowing six earned runs.

Even if he does find success against Miami, it likely won’t be with a high strikeout total, as Irvin owns a 20.3% strikeout rate, ranking in the bottom third among qualified starters.

The 4.5 strikeout line for this outing is fair since the righty doesn't miss a lot of bats.

For all the things Miami has done poorly to start the year — and it's a long list — its 21.3% strikeout rate as a team is a Top-10 mark in MLB. They make contact, it just isn't always good contact.

Bank on that trend to continue for Irvin Monday.

Jake Irvin prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Big bad Vlad

It certainly hasn’t been the start Vlad Guerrero Jr. envisioned for himself or the Toronto Blue Jays, who open a set with the Kansas City Royals at a game under .500, good for fourth in the AL East. 

Guerrero is hitting just .218 on the campaign, with three homers and 10 RBI. However, while the Jays just lost two of three against the Dodgers, the first baseman did show signs of life with the bat.

He had two hits in Sunday's finale after recording a double on Saturday to give him back-to-back games with at least two total bases for the first time since April 19 & 20.

It should be advantage Vlad when he faces Royals starter Jonathan Bowlan for the first time.

Bowlan will be making his 2024 debut after a start and relief appearance in 2023. He’s 3-1 in four minor league starts this year, giving up 18 hits, six earned runs, and five walks in 21 innings. He's not overpowering but he throws strikes, which Vlad should take advantage of early.

Guerrero's to build on his efforts is in front of him and also presents a chance for him to bounce back from a rough set against these same Royals from a week ago.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)