The Cincinnati Reds are looking for their third straight win over the Philadelphia Phillies as they wrap up a 4-game set today at the Great American Ballpark.
My MLB picks consider that recent history to see if I agree with the books that expect a bounce back from the visitors, with the Phillies listed as -162 moneyline road favorites.
Can they salvage this series with a split in Cincy? Check out my free Phillies vs Reds predictions below, complete with a best bet.
Phillies vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Phillies moneyline (-162 at DraftKings)
My analysis
After dropping the series opener 7-0, the Cincinnati Reds rebounded with back-to-back wins over the Philadelphia Phillies ahead of today's finale.
The offense has been the constant to Cincinnati’s sturdy 14-10 start to the year. Currently ranked eighth in the majors in runs scored, the Reds have scored at least six runs in 11 of their wins. However, their starting pitching could improve. The Reds rank 20th in MLB with a 4.06 ERA and 1.28 WHIP (17th).
Starting pitching hasn’t been a problem for the Phillies, who enter play with the most wins among its starting staff with 11 while boasting a 2.20 ERA, which has helped Philadelphia to a 15-10 start, second only to the Braves in the NL East.
They’ll hand the ball to righty Zach Wheeler, who has pitched well despite his 1-3 start to the campaign, evidenced by his 2.30 ERA, 38 strikeouts (third), and a 0.89 WHIP (10th). Wheeler did pick up his first win of the year last start in a 9-5 win over the White Sox, allowing no earned runs on one hit while fanning eight over 7 1/3 innings.
That broke a three-game losing streak for him, which is a bit misleading because Philadelphia’s bats have offered little support, putting up just three total runs in those losses.
The Reds will counter with Nick Martinez, who last pitched in a relief role on April 20, giving Philly a substantial advantage on the mound. Martinez has a 4.76 ERA with 14 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP in 17 innings across four appearances (two starts).
Philly’s bats should get back to piling-up runs. Before these last two L’s, the Phils scored at least seven runs in five straight games. They won’t need much to support Wheeler, who should have them back on the winning side of things on getaway day.
Phillies vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Trea Turner Over 1.5 hits
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 RBI
Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in 12 of the Phillies’ last 13 games. He leads the team in hits and runs scored, and has been a standout in April, batting .345.
Before his standout effort against the White Sox, Wheeler had given up eight earned runs in his three previous starts. If the Reds do damage, look for shortstop Elly De La Cruz to be one of the candidates to make noise. He picked up an RBI last game and has driven in three runs against the Phillies in the series.
That gives him RBIs in five of the last seven games with at least one in five of the Reds' last six games against NL opponents. Cincinnati has a much better offense than the White Sox lineup that Wheeler rolled over. De La Cruz typically bats second vs. right-handers, so he should see extra plate appearances compared to teammates batting lower in the batting order.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Reds odds
Phillies vs Reds live odds
Phillies vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+115)| Cincinnati +1.5 (-135)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -155 | Cincinnati +130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Phillies vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cincinnati is 9-6 at home this season.
- Philadelphia is 5-4 on the road this year.
- The Over is 6-3-1 in this head-to-head series.
- Eight of the Phillies' last 10 road games have gone Under the total.
Phillies vs Reds trend
Philadelphia is 13-7 as a betting favorite this year. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Reds
Phillies vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-PHI, Bally Ohio |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (1-3, 2.30 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Nick Martinez (0-0, 4.77 ERA) |
Phillies vs Reds latest injuries
Phillies vs Reds weather
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