The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves have both struggled to hit the ball over the last two weeks, and both teams will be looking for a long-awaited offensive outburst in the final game of the week on Sunday.
While the Padres would seem the likelier of the two on paper given the season Bryce Elder has had, might this matchup be a treacherous one for Yu Darvish, who’s shined to this point in 2024?
Let’s talk about it below and get into our best MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball on May 19.
Braves vs Mets Sunday Night Baseball props
- Darvish Under 17.5 outs recorded (+105 at DraftKings)
- Darvish Over 2.5 earned runs (-129 at Caesars)
- Ozuna to hit a home run (+340 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 5-19 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Padres vs Braves SNB props
Prop bet #1: Yu Darvish Under 17.5 outs recorded
I’m fading Yu Darvish in a couple of ways here, so let’s try and focus first and foremost on the number of runners I expect him to allow which should drive up his pitch count and get him out of this game quickly.
The 37-year-old has once again given up plenty of contact this year but his walk rate is once again near the league average of 8%. Atlanta hasn’t exactly been elite in that department this year, but it's been much more patient over the last two weeks with a walk rate up at nearly 10% as it attempts to get some extra runners on base.
With their patient approach, the Atlanta Braves should work plenty of deep counts and get some runners on base via the walk when they’re not slugging the ball off Darvish.
He profiles terribly for this matchup, and while I do think a collection of runs will ultimately get him out of this game early, his inability to strike guys out this season coupled with the walks should prevent him from going six frames.
Player prop: Yu Darvish Under 17.5 outs recorded (+105 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Yu Darvish Over 2.5 earned runs
For a fourth straight season, Darvish’s strikeout rate has taken a dive.
Atlanta has struggled for contact the last couple of weeks, which theoretically should aid Darvish, but his extremely high flyball rate (over 30%) is going to be a nightmare in chorus with his 42% hard-hit rate, his worst ever tracked by Statcast.
The Braves have hit more fly balls lately and have posted solid power numbers, so they should find a way to put up plenty of extra-base hits and race out to the lead. While I do think the outs are the best way to fade him, this is another generous line given the nightmarish matchup.
Atlanta grades out as the seventh-best park for home runs this season, and with all those well-struck fly balls, Darvish is going to be in deep trouble. He hasn’t allowed many homers yet given six of his eight starts have come at home, the friendliest park in the league to pitchers. That will all change tonight.
Player prop: Yu Darvish Over 2.5 earned runs (-129 at Caesars)
Prop bet #3: Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run
Looking at Atlanta's lineup, there's no better choice than Marcell Ozuna. The slugger homered in Atlanta's first SNB game of the season and turned around to go 2-for-3 with a walk against the Mets the next time they played on national television on Sunday night.
Ozuna is third in the league with 12 homers this year but somehow hasn’t gone yard in seven games. He should snap that streak against the troubled Darvish, and helping matters is the fact he’s hit .316 in 19 at-bats against him with a homer.
His expected slugging percentage also stands at .500 in this matchup and he’s averaging 94.8 mph off the bat on all his batted balls against Darvish with a high 21.7-degree launch angle.
I think we can say with certainty that Ozuna should give at least one ball a long ride in the air, and with the way Darvish has allowed hard-hit fly balls, he’s got a great chance to round the bases here.
Player prop: Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run (+340 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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