San Diego Padres righty Yu Darvish hasn’t surrendered an earned run across his past 17 innings but is a slight MLB odds underdog when the Friars meet the Atlanta Braves as tonight's feature matchup.
Darvish has been hot, but my Padres vs. Braves prediction looks for an early exit for the veteran righty on Sunday, May 19. Read on for my full MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball.
Padres vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Yu Darvish Under 17.5 outs (-105 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
San Diego Padres starter Yu Darvish has been impressive recently but is in tough against the Atlanta Braves tonight.
Darvish had a shaky start to his season, but he and his eight-pitch repertoire haven’t surrendered an earned run across his last 17 frames. The streak improved his record to 3-1 and saw his ERA dip to its lowest number (2.43) across his past three seasons.
The road has traditionally been friendly to the 37-year-old righty, but not so much this season. The sample size is only 10 innings, but he's walking more hitters while striking out fewer away from Petco Park, which could mean an early night for the Padres starter.
The Braves have some serious heat in their lineup, but they do strike out a lot (23%). One reason for their eighth-best OBP is their above-average walk rate against righties (8.9%). Darvish's walks typically lead to runs and will likely force the Padres hurler to throw too many pitches, which usually leads to an early hook.
The thing about Darvish that makes his innings prop so inviting is his seeming inability to pitch deep into ballgames. He left after the fifth frame with shutouts in two of his previous three starts and has failed to pitch past the fifth stanza in six of his last eight. He may get some strikeouts, but his 4.32 away xFIP suggests it will be a short night.
Darvish may overwhelm some Braves, but he’ll throw far too many pitches to exceed 17.5 outs.
Padres vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Yu Darvish Under 17.5 outs
Ozzie Albies to get a hit
Marcell Ozuna to get a hit
I like the Under 17.5 outs prop tonight, and two reasons are Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna.
Albies is riding a four-game hitting streak, with 20 of his 38 hits at Truist Park. He has four hits and a couple of doubles across 18 at-bats against the Padres righty.
Ozuna is looking to improve upon a 10-game hitting streak. The Braves DH has blasted nine of his 12 home runs against right-handed pitching and is 6-for-19 with a homer and a pair of extra-base hits lifetime against Darvish.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Braves odds
Padres vs Braves live odds
Padres vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-190) | Atlanta -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: San Diego +118 | Atlanta -130
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Padres vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres moneyline is on the move, spiking as high as +100 from a +118 opening price, while Braves markets are trading from -115 to -122 from a -130 opener.
- There is a lot of trading in the total markets. Over 8.5 (-130) is the best number but the most expensive, but 9.0 is the primary market, with odds at +100 from an 8.5 (-110) opening price.
- Under 8.5 (+100) has the lowest total trading, while most Under 9.0 markets trade -120 across the US betting markets.
Padres vs Braves trend
Yu Darvish has failed to clear 17.5 outs in six of his previous eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves
Padres vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Randy Vasquez (0-2, 6.32 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (2-1, 1.34 ERA) |
Padres vs Braves latest injuries
Padres vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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