With Ronald Acuna Jr. set to return from a rest day, the Atlanta Braves can crank up the heat on the wobbling San Diego Padres tonight in a star-studded weekend series. Atlanta
Padres vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Braves team total Over 4.5 (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
It speaks volumes for the quality of this Atlanta Braves offense that the team is sitting at 26-14 yet there’s some noise around a shortage of runs.
I’m not buying into any of that half-hearted concern. The Braves are still averaging almost five runs per game and they’ll have a refreshed Ronald Acuna Jr. tonight to turbo-charge the offense.
I love this matchup for the hosts against the San Diego Padres' Matt Waldron and his 5.49 ERA. Waldron is only in his second year in the majors, and the righty knuckleballer is off to an erratic start to 2024.
That includes a forgettable outing against the Diamondbacks earlier this month where he lasted just three innings and was charged with seven runs.
Even with Austin Riley still listed as day-to-day with an abdominal injury, there’s more than enough pop in this Atlanta lineup to post 5+ runs tonight. Marcell Ozuna leads the league with 41 RBI and the Braves are in the Top 5 in both batting average and hits per game.
Against Chicago this week, Atlanta even got a big series from Zack Short in the 9-hole, with four hits and two RBIs.
Padres vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves team total Over 4.5
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
Max Fried Over 4.5 strikeouts
Matt Olson is one of a few Atlanta hitters trending up after a slow start by his high standards. He enters this series on a four-game hit streak, including a four-RBI effort against the Cubs on Tuesday.
I’m picking Olson to have a busy day on the basepaths again today, and seven of his nine doubles have come off right-handed pitchers.
Fried is another good option on the props market and he’s found an impressive rhythm on the mound (3.57 ERA), getting through three of his last four starts without allowing a run.
A line of 4.5 strikeouts feels low given that he’s had 5+ Ks in each of his past four outings. Though the odds are shorter than I’d like, Fried has had San Diego's number in prior matchups, winning three of his last four starts.
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Padres vs Braves odds
Padres vs Braves live odds
Padres vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-120) | Atlanta -1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: San Diego +180 | Atlanta -220
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Padres vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- With a 15-5 home record and an edge in the pitching matchup, it’s no surprise to see the Braves enter as -215 favorites. Atlanta has also won its last three series.
- Though the Padres have won four of the past six meetings between these teams, the visitors’ three straight losses at home to the Rockies this week were alarming and they’ve allowed 5+ runs in four of their last five contests.
- Atlanta has peppered the Under this season — it’s 9-1 in the hosts’ last 10 games and 25-13 overall this season, but I’ve already made the case for the Braves' bats to fire tonight.
- With Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth swinging the bat well, the San Diego offense ranks in the Top 5 this year in hits, and the visitors have tallied three straight Overs. That’s enough for me to lean towards another Over here.
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Padres vs Braves trend
Keeping the pressure on the Phillies at the top of the NL East, the Braves have covered the run line in 16 of their last 27 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves.
Padres vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, Bally Sports Southeast |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Matt Waldron (1-5, 5.49 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (3-1, 3.57 ERA) |
Padres vs Braves latest injuries
Padres vs Braves weather
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