The Texas Rangers will look to wrap up a 10-game homestand this afternoon and take two of three vs. the visiting Washington Nationals, who split the series after yesterday's 1-0 victory.
My Nationals vs. Rangers predictions for May 2 are taking advantage of Washington's short-leashed pitcher Mitchell Parker by picking Davis Wendzel to go hitless as his plate appearances are expected to decrease.
Find out more in my MLB picks below.
Nationals vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Davis Wendzel Under 0.5 hits (+105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Mitchell Parker is a short-leashed lefty starter for the Washington Nationals who is projected to throw 79 pitches and go 13 1/3 outs, per THE BAT. His Under 15.5 outs market has plummeted and could be a great Under if the books move to 14.5 at plus money, but as of now, it’s as short as -220 Under 15.5, which might indicate a stubbornness to move off that number.
All of this is indicating another short outing for the lefty vs. a good Texas lineup, and with the Nats only having right handers in the bullpen at the moment — which is wild — this Texas lineup could be making some substitutions early. That’s bad news for right-handed hitter Davis Wendzel who doesn’t hit righties, but great news for bettors.
Wendzel is projected to hit out of the No. 8 hole today, which is his spot vs. lefties. He's started six games this season and has completed just five. Over his last two starts, he’s been pulled in the sixth and seventh innings and had two PAs in both games.
The rookie isn’t even a good hitter to begin with, owning a .118 average on the season, but THE BAT is projecting him as one of the biggest pinch-hit risks of the day at 65% and under 3.00 PAs.
His Under 0.5 hits at +105 is a number I’d bet to -125. Parker isn’t a bad lefty and enters with a sub-1.00 WHIP over 16 innings and three starts, so he can shut the door until the right-handed bullpen arrives.
There is a chance he doesn’t start, but at most books, that will be a void bet. It’s too good of an opportunity to pass up today, and it's the best situation to bet on low PAs on a small Thursday slate.
Nationals vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Davis Wendzel Under 0.5 hits
Mitchell Parker Under 15.5 outs
Nathan Eovaldi Over 1.5 walks
Parker's Under 15.5 outs is as short as -225 at some places, and by adding the Wendzel Under hits, there is a little multiplier as the true odds are +216 while the SGP odds for the pair at +250.
Adding Nathan Eovaldi Over 1.5 walks is a great booster as Washington is not the worst walk-rate team in baseball, and the Texas starter has hit the over in four straight starts, including 11(!) walks over his last two games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nationals vs Rangers odds
Nationals vs Rangers live odds
Nationals vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Washington +1.5 (-120) | Texas -1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Washington +165 | Texas -200
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Nationals vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The total has fallen from 8.5 to 8.0, while the Nats have gone from +165 to +175 on the moneyline.
- At 15-15 SU on the season, the Washinton Nationals have been one of the best-underpriced teams to back on the moneyline. Betting $100 (or one unit) on them each game would have bettors up $927 or 9.27 units. Texas, on the other hand, has been slightly over-priced at -$127 on the year.
- Washington's Mitchell Parker has made three starts this year as a rookie and has given up 13 hits with a 14:2 K:BB ratio while posting a 1.69 ERA.
- Washington enters as the more injured team and will be missing outfielders Lane Thomas, Victor Robles, and Joey Gallo.
Nationals vs Rangers trend
The Washington Nationals have hit the game total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Rangers
Nationals vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Southwest, MASN2 |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | Mitchell Parker (2-0, 1.69 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 3.00 ERA) |
Nationals vs Rangers latest injuries
Nationals vs Rangers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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