There’s a fascinating pitching matchup this Saturday when the Seattle Mariners (17-15) send out Logan Gilbert and the Houston Astros (12-20) counter with Framber Valdez.
According to MLB odds, the Astros are favored to come out on top, while the total has been priced down at 7.5.
Will this one turn out to be as much of a pitcher’s duel as it looks like on paper? Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and Mariners vs. Astros predictions on Saturday, May 4.
Mariners vs Astros prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 3.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
One reason the Houston Astros have struggled out of the gates with a 12-20 record through 32 games is the performance of the starting rotation. Injuries have been partially to blame, and things are starting to look up with two top-of-the-rotation arms, Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, back in the fold and encouraging news about Christian Javier’s recovery from a neck injury.
Valdez gets the ball on Saturday, making his second appearance since returning from a stint on the IL with elbow soreness. He’s pitched well when healthy this season, sporting a 2.60 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and 2.67 FIP through three starts (17 1-3 IP).
The veteran southpaw’s offerings appear as deadly as ever — he ranks 14th in stuff+ (116) among starters who have thrown at least 17 innings. Batters have been swinging and missing against him plenty as his 12% swinging strike rate is slightly above his 10.8% career average.
He forecasts for a successful day at the office against a Seattle Mariners lineup that has struggled mightily against lefties, posting an 86 wRC+ and .282 wOBA along with the second-highest K-rate (26.8%). If we isolate for the last 15 days, those already-poor numbers become even more putrid (74 wRC+, .263 wOBA, league-worst 31.2% K-rate).
On the flip side, the Mariners counter with Logan Gilbert and his stellar 2.03 ERA. The big right-hander has the second-lowest WHIP (0.80) in the American League and has dominated batters however he pleases, ranking in the 97th percentile in fastball run value (7) and the 90th percentile in breaking run value (3).
His squad has been an Under team through and through this season at 7-23 O/U. Seattle hasn’t hit a single Over in its last 10 games, going 0-9-1 O/U. Funny enough, Houston hasn’t been much different at 10-20 O/U overall and 2-8 O/U in its last 10 games.
The first five innings (F5) total is a low one at 3.5, but it’s that way for a reason. We have two highly effective starting pitchers on the mound and one lineup that has been painfully inept recently against lefties. I’m snagging up the Under for slight plus money.
Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Framber Valdez 6+ Strikeouts
Framber Valdez Under 1.5 Walks
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Seattle simply can’t get enough of striking out against southpaws, evidenced by a 31.2% K-rate across the last 20 days. That’s nearly three full percentage points worse than the next-closest team.
The Mariners also haven’t worked the count or forced many free passes, posting a meager 5.7% walk rate against lefties during that period. Valdez hasn’t walked a batter in either of his last two starts.
As for Gilbert, he’s averaging 7.3 strikeouts per start and has punched out at least six batters in every appearance.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Astros odds
Mariners vs Astros live odds
Mariners vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-175) | Houston -1.5 (+156)
- Moneyline: Seattle +125 | Houston -135
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+101) | Under 8 (-113)
Mariners vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has come to life lately with five wins in its last six games.
- Seattle has struggled a bit on the road, going 6-7.
- Across the last 15 days, the Astros rank 10th in wRC+ (103) and wOBA (.313). Houston has hit right-handers well this season with a 112 wRC+ but has been slightly colder lately with a 101 wRC+ if we isolate for the last 15 days.
- Gilbert has a 1.60 ERA across his last five starts, while Valdez has a 2.40 ERA across his last five starts.
Mariners vs Astros trend
These two teams have combined to go 2-17-1 O/U across their last 20 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros
Mariners vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (2-0, 2.03 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (1-0, 2.60 ERA) |
Mariners vs Astros latest injuries
Mariners vs Astros weather
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