Mariners vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: Halos Hold Edge in Elite Pitching Matchup

If you like great starting pitching matchups, make sure you stay up to watch this West Coast dandy. 

Shohei Ohtani and Luis Castillo square off in a beautiful pitching duel to kickoff Game 1 of a series between two Al West foes jockeying for position in the divisional standings. 

While both teams bring elite pitching to the mound on Friday, perhaps only one is also packing a punch at the plate.

Looking at the MLB odds, the Los Angeles Angels (34-30) are slight favorites as the home representative. 

I break down whether that line is justified and more while providing my best bet in my full MLB picks and predictions for Mariners vs. Angels on Friday, June 9. 

Mariners vs Angels odds

Mariners vs Angels predictions

I really like Shohei Ohtani’s forecast on Friday night against a slumping Mariners team. Allow me to explain.

Seattle’s bats have failed them repeatedly this season. The pitching staff has performed very well while the lineup lags behind at 22nd in wRC+ (96) and 25th in wOBA (.301). They’ve been in an even worse slump than usual lately, putting forth a 64 wRC+ and .256 wOBA in the last 10 days.

Making contact has been a Sisyphean task, as they’ve posted a 25.7% K-rate against right-handers on the season — a number that jumps up to 31.1% across the last 10 days. Their measly 39 wRC+ in that time span is simply deplorable.

Ohtani made a start against the Mariners back on April 5 in Seattle. He was masterful, lasting six innings while allowing just a single earned run on three hits and notching eight strikeouts. One has to forecast another strong showing this time around at Angel Stadium, where he has a 2.31 ERA.  

Now, while I like Ohtani’s chances, so does everyone else. The books have juiced his props even more than normal, making it difficult for me to stomach playing -140 or higher on a 7.5 strikeout prop Over or -160 or higher on an Under 4.5 hits allowed. Laying that kind of juice repeatedly, in the long run, is not something I advise. 

So where am I focusing for this game’s best bet? I’m keeping it simple and playing the Halos on the moneyline at -120.

They do get a tough matchup against Luis Castillo, but the lineup appears capable of putting up a fight — unlike the Mariners against Ohtani. They have hit the ball well this season, checking in at sixth in wRC+ (110) and eighth in wOBA (.331). Better yet, they have been on fire at the plate, posting a 124 wRC+ and .351 wOBA across the last 10 days. 

As a cherry on top, the Angels have a better bullpen ERA (3.48) than the Mariners (3.78). That gives them an advantage in every facet of the game Friday and they’re playing at home, so I’m comfortable playing them as the favorite and would go up to -140.

My best bet: Angels moneyline (-120 at WynnBET)

Mariners vs Angels moneyline analysis

The home team is the slight favorite, ranging from as low as -120 to as high as -136 depending on the book. As always, be sure to shop around using our odds tool. The best comeback available on the Mariners is +116. 

Los Angeles has been in fine form across its last 10 games, posting a 6-4 record while riding a four-game winning streak. Seattle has struggled with a 4-6 record in its last 10 games. 

The Emerald City representatives have not fared well on the road, winning just one of their last six away games overall while losing four straight against a team with a winning record. 

That may be tough news against an Angels team that has played well at home this season, posting an 18-13 record while winning seven of its last 10. 

They have been great when Ohtani is on the bump this season, winning eight of his 12 starts. Although his counterpart, Castillo, is great, his ballclub has not taken advantage when he’s on the bump — they have a .500 record (6-6) in his 12 starts. 

While no one would call Los Angels a team that plays with much consistency, one thing it has done is handle business against lesser opponents. The Halos are 16-5 across their last 21 home games against a team with a losing record. 

Mariners vs Angels Over/Under analysis

The total opened at a flat 7 but has since been on the move. Some books have moved to 7.5, while others are still offering 7 albeit with the Over juiced in the -121 to -125 range. 

Weather could be a factor, as the current forecast calls a temperature of 67 degrees at the time of first pitch with winds of 10.3 mph blowing out to right field. The temperature is expected to drop to the low 60s by the end of the game while the wind will blow between 6.9 and 9.2 mph in the waning innings. 

Looking back at past precedent, these teams have tended to get into high-scoring affairs when playing one another, as they’ve combined to go 9-3 O/U in the last 12 meetings. 

Still, it’s rare to see two starting pitchers of this caliber square off against each other in the regular season. Ohtani has some of the best stuff in the majors (arguably the best, especially when Jacob deGrom is on the shelf) and faces a pitiful Mariners lineup. On the other side, the Angels have been mashing right-handers but face one of the game’s best in Castillo. 

Add in the fact that these are two highly effective bullpens and I believe that there are more heavily-weighted factors working in favor of the Under.

Mariners vs Angels game info

Starting pitchers

Luis Castillo (4-3, 2.55 ERA): Castillo has been as cool as a cucumber in his second go-around with Seattle after arriving at the trade deadline last season. He’s in terrific form having allowed just a single earned run across his last three starts (21 total innings). His 3.44 xERA does indicate some regression, although his 2.93 FIP is very strong. He’s only pitched once at Angel Stadium, allowing one earned across six strong innings while striking out nine batters. 

Shohei Ohtani (5-2, 3.30 ERA): The man, the myth, the legend — Ohtani. He’s posting a ridiculous 33.8% K-rate which is the highest mark of his career and his 3.12 xERA is a strong indicator of future success. One issue he does need to clean up is walks (10.2% BB-rate) as that’s leading to an elevated 3.97 FIP. He was hit hard for five earned in his last start but hopes for better results at home, where he has a 2.31 ERA.

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The Angels are 16-5 in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Angels

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