The Texas Rangers host the Cleveland Guardians in MLB action on May 14 after the Rangers were blanked 7-0 last night in the first contest of this three-game series.
My Guardians vs. Rangers prediction is anticipating more action from Texas bats tonight as my MLB picks discuss why Marcus Semien Over 1.5 total bases is the way to go.
Guardians vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It's hard to pick a side in this matchup because neither starter can be trusted, and both lineups are near the cellar in batting analytics. However, while the Texas Rangers are 23rd in the majors in barrel rate and 24th in hard-hit rate, Marcus Semien has been producing with an expected slugging percentage of .501.
The two-time Silver Slugger winner leads the club and is ninth in the majors with 85 total bases in 43 games. He's also been on fire over the last two weeks, slashing .344/.358/.531.
The Cleveland Guardians are sending right-hander Ben Lively to the mound tonight, and while he has a 2.63 ERA in five starts this year, I'm not sold.
There's a reason the 32-year-old hurler has spent most of his career in the minors and the KBO, and he had a 5.38 ERA in 88 2/3 innings last season with Cincinnati. He's also in the Bottom 30th percentile in barrel rate and Bottom 10th percentile in average exit velocity, which has led to an xERA of 4.41 and strongly suggests regression.
Lively relies predominantly on a four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper in his arsenal. Semien rakes against four-seamers and sinkers and has shown improvement against sweepers since they've become more common over the last few years. Semien has also boasted a reverse-platoon split, slugging .493 against righties last year and slugging .564 against them in his terrific 2021 campaign.
Guardians vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 total bases
Jack Leiter Under 4.5 strikeouts
Josh Naylor Over 0.5 hits
Texas is starting rookie right-hander Jack Leiter. Leiter was the second pick overall in the 2021 draft and pitched well at Triple-A Round Rock but has struggled in The Show. He surrendered seven runs in his MLB debut in April and was rocked for seven hits and six runs in his second MLB start last week.
The Guardians haven't been hitting well, but they don't strike out a ton (eighth in the majors in strikeout rate), and Leiter's Ks prop is too high considering he posted three punchouts in each of his first two career starts.
Josh Naylor is batting .267 this year but had a .308 BA in 121 games last season. He's picked up at least one hit in eight of his last 10 games and will have the platoon advantage against Leiter.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Rangers odds
Guardians vs Rangers live odds
Guardians vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-200) | Texas -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -105 | Texas -115
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Guardians vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians are coming off back-to-back wins by identical 7-0 scores.
- The Rangers are 1-5 in their last six games and have also lost the last four meetings against Cleveland.
- The Guardians are just 26th in the majors in barrel rate and 30th in hard-hit rate.
- Cleveland is hitting .236 with that number plummeting to .205 since losing the AL batting average leader Steven Kwan to an injury on May 4.
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Guardians vs Rangers trend
The Under is 11-6 in Cleveland's last 17 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs Rangers.
Guardians vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSGL, BSSW |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (1-2, 2.63 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Jack Leiter (0-0, 12.91 ERA) |
Guardians vs Rangers latest injuries
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Not intended for use in MA.
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