The MLB futures markets have been open for months, but just because bettors possibly missed the best number, doesn’t mean it’s too late to find some value in the plethora of markets.
Books are offering us all we can handle in terms of MLB future bets, including win totals, end-of-season stat leaders, award winners, playoff markets, home run, and strikeout totals, as well as the usual division, league, and outright winners.
It’s a lot to take in, but let’s just look at five MLB future bets that I love heading into Opening Day.
Aaron Nola to win NL Cy Young Award (+1,400)
With Jacob deGrom moving to the AL and Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander a year older, Aaron Nola should not be this long.
This is a pitcher who led all hurlers last year in WAR (6.3). THE BAT X projects him to lead pitchers again this year in WAR at 5.1, and ZIPS projects him second.
Nola is also one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, having finished in the Top 17 in innings pitched in four straight seasons. Only Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara have thrown more innings than Nola since 2019.
The Philadelphia pitcher is also coming off a season where he corrected his control issues, as his BB/9 went from a career average of 2.44 to 1.27 in 2022. His K% is in the upper-20%, and he sported a sub-1.00 WHIP in 2022. Batters hit just .218 off the right-hander a season ago, which was a Top-15 mark.
The cherry on top here is that Nola is in the final year of his contract and is looking for a payday. The Philadelphia Phillies and Nola have “broken off” contract extension talks, so the righty is pitching for a bag this season.
Pick: Aaron Nola to win NL Cy Young Award (+1,400 at BetRivers)
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Jazz Chisholm to lead the league in stolen bases (+2,200)
With the new pitch clock and disengagements rules, we’re going to see plenty of stolen bases this season, with some projections seeing between a 20-to-30 percent increase.
We all know the Miami Marlins have the green light in any situation, and for a team that will struggle to produce runs, their speed will be their biggest asset again this year. That could mean big things for Jazz Chisholm.
The fourth-year player might be an afterthought in this market heading into the season after playing just 60 games and being limited to 213 at-bats in 2022. In that limited role, the toolsy player attempted 17 steals, and was successful 12 times.
If we project that to a modest 600 at-bats, we could easily see a 30-to-35 steal campaign. THE BAT X projects him to finish third in stolen bases on 132 games and 552 at-bats. If Chisholm hits at the top of the order and can stay healthy, he has a chance to beat those projections on a team that was one of two clubs that attempted at least 150 swipes a season ago. If he improves his OBP, we could be holding big +EV.
Pick: Jazz Chisholm to lead the league in stolen bases (+2,200 at bet365)
Pittsburgh Pirates Over 66.5 wins (-110)
Shopping around is always key and with win total markets, it’s even more important.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a popular team to exceed their win total this season, as they are a young club that will see growth. They’ve added plenty of veterans in Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen, and Ji-Man Choi, as well as Rich Hill. This group should help develop the young talent into professionals who come every day to play, and with bet365 giving us a win total below the market average, it’s hard not to love the Over at 66.5.
This is as high as 68.5 (leaning to the Under) at some books, but THE BAT X is projecting 74 wins, which makes this a worthy play to put in the account.
Pittsburgh has elite young talent in Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Bryan Reynolds. The pipeline is loaded with young pitchers and hitters, and the rotation is much better than last year when they won 62 games. Even if they do sell off at the deadline, they have enough talent in the minors to make up for it.
Roasny Contreras has a high ceiling, Mitch Keller posted a sub-4.00 ERA a season ago, Hill can eat some innings, JT Brubaker is not an awful No. 4, and Vince Valasquez has plenty of experience for a No. 5.
Pittsburgh also has a solid closing option in David Bednar, who is worth nearly two wins as a closer. With the possibility of playing many close games (Pittsburgh played in 48 of them last year and lost 27), Bednar will be a key player in hitting this Over 66.5.
With a great blend of veteran players and a youth movement, getting this total a full win below market is a deal, and I’d still hit the Over 67.5 at -110 or better.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Over 66.5 wins (-110 at bet365)
Luis Castillo Over 185.5 strikeouts (-120)
After making the move from Cincinnati to Seattle, Mariners pitcher Luis Castillo saw his K/9 go from 9.5 to 10.6 and his K% from 26% to 29%. A lot of that has to do with the change of environment, as the right-hander went from the best home-run hitting park in Great American Ball Park to the neutral T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Starts could certainly go longer for Castillo at T-Mobile, where the setting ranks as the second-most pitcher-friendly park for runs. The lowest projection right now at Fan Graphs is 193 strikeouts, while some projections are as high as 205. A low-end projection for Castillo is 185 innings at a punchout per frame, which is where the books have his total strikeouts at.
Some books are as high as 190.5 (DraftKings), but bet365 has the best number for an Over at 185.5 (-120).
Castillo will also see plenty of the Athletics’ weak offense, and the Angels and Rangers were both Top-7 strikeout teams a season ago.
A full year with one of the best rotations in baseball should do wonders for Castillo, and the move away from the GABP is a big factor for this Over.
Pick: Luis Castillo Over 185.5 strikeouts (-120 at bet365)
Cleveland Guardians to win American League (+1,500)
The Cleveland Guardians won their division a season ago and got plenty of playoff experience before dropping Game 5 to the Yankees in the Divisional Series. They were one of the most consistent teams in baseball with 46 wins at home and 46 on the road. They also had their fair share of one-run games, where they went 28-17 SU and had a .500 winning percentage vs. winning teams.
They play in arguably the worst division in baseball, and a top spot in the AL Central will help them have a better path in the playoffs.
Andres Gimenez can take a step forward, Jose Ramirez can win a batting title, Josh Bell and Josh Naylor are thumpers, and the outfield is loaded with speed. The team is one of the best defensive units in baseball. Cleveland is also one of the lowest K% teams in the game, and makes opposing pitchers work, which might have even more of a benefit this season with the pitch clock.
Looking at the pitching, Shane Bieber is an ace that lots of bettors are on for a Cy Young this season at +1400. Cal Quantril is a decent No. 2, while Triston McKenzie will be back after an injury that will keep him out for two months. This is also one of the best bullpens in all of baseball.
This roster is built with postseason baseball in mind as they take a ton of pitches, play elite defense, and have a solid bullpen. They could easily finish with the third-best record in the AL, and will be a tough match for any opponent, making a +1500 price very appetizing and much better value than New York (+375) or Toronto (+600).
Pick: Cleveland Guardians to win American League (+1,500 at bet365)
