Last night’s NL West matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Arizona Diamondbacks was all the buzz.
Yesterday’s game was delayed nearly two hours thanks to a swarm of bees behind home plate, and tonight's contest promises to be an exciting pitching duel between these divisional foes.
The MLB odds have L.A. as favorites, but is the honeypot with Arizona as home dogs? I break it all down in my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 1.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 1.5 walks (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Once the field was bee-free, the Arizona Diamondbacks responded to a Game 1 loss against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a thrilling walk-off homer in the bottom of the 10th inning courtesy of Christian Walker.
The delay also meant Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery was pushed to today, setting up an excellent pitching showdown against the Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto in tonight's rubber match.
Take away Yamamoto’s out-of-the-ordinary season debut in the Seoul Series, and the right-hander has been dynamite. Yamamoto has allowed just six earned runs while limiting opponents to a .198 batting average and striking out 35 over 27 innings pitched over his last five starts. He has a 3.58 expected ERA for the season and his K-rate ranks in the 91st percentile.
Almost equally impressive is Yamamoto’s control considering how much movement is on his pitches. He’s walked just six batters all season, which works out to a walk rate in the 81st percentile, and he should be able to command the zone again tonight.
The Diamondbacks have a solid lineup on paper, but things haven’t come together yet in 2024. Arizona currently ranks just 29th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 25th in wRC+ when digging in against right-handed pitchers.
Yamamoto’s walk total is sitting at 1.5 for tonight’s game, and he's gone Over that number just once in six starts this season. At plus money, this is a great bet to ride.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 1.5 walks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 2.5 earned runs
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 RBI
Let’s double down with the Yoshinobu Yamamoto success tonight and add Under 2.5 earned runs allowed to this same-game parlay.
As noted, the Japanese phenom has been pretty outstanding since his Dodgers debut in South Korea, and the Diamondbacks are struggling to plate runs against righties. Yamamoto's earned runs allowed prop is on the board at 2.5, and he’s allowed three earned runs in just two of his last five starts.
I also like Yamamoto to get some support from his countryman tonight. While he isn’t pitching this year, Shohei Ohtani is just doing his thing at the plate. The two-time MVP is hitting .336 with a 1.017 OPS, seven home runs, and 19 RBI.
Montgomery is still shaking off the rust due to signing late. He’s giving up a .266 expected batting average to opponents and is striking out just 14% of batters faced. Ohtani is also 2-6 with a double in his career vs. the D-backs southpaw, good for a .694 expected slugging percentage.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks live odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+125) | Arizona +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -130 | Arizona +110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened this matchup as -130 road favorites, and early bettors were happy to snap up that price with L.A., now in the -150 range.
- Although the D-backs swept away the Dodgers in the postseason, L.A. has won six of the last seven regular season meetings.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and the early action has come in on the Over, moving the number up to an even 9.0.
- With a pitching matchup of Yamamoto vs. Montgomery, I would consider the Under at this new number.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend
The Dodgers have hit the game total Over in 39 of their last 63 road games (+16.00 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Diamondbacks.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
SNLA, ARID
|
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2-1, 3.54 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | TBD (- ERA) |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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