The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres wrap up a three-game weekend series with a rubber match on Sunday afternoon at Petco Park.
The oddsmakers view it as a close one — according to MLB odds, the Dodgers are -125 on the moneyline while the total resides at 8.
I’m taking a closer look at Padres starter Yu Darvish, whose underlying metrics point toward slight regression. Read on for my MLB picks and Dodgers vs. Padres predictions on Sunday, May 12.
Dodgers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Yu Darvish Under 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Veteran Yu Darvish has been a solid contributor yet again for the San Diego Padres in his fourth year with the club. He’s posted a sterling 2.94 ERA across seven starts, defying the wishes of time in his 37-year-old season.
Ever a pessimist, I’ll point out that he’s due for at least a bit of regression. He posted a 4.56 ERA a season ago, making it the second time in the last three years that his ERA was above the 4.00 threshold. That’s a sign that age has started to play a role for Yu, whose ERA was below 4.00 in seven of his first eight years in the majors.
The underlying metrics are pessimistic as well, if perhaps not quite to the level of the author of this article. Yu’s 3.70 xERA and 3.22 FIP both indicate a slight step back is due soon, but there are some other concerning numbers lying below the surface.
His K-rate (21.7%) is the lowest it’s ever been and by a wide margin. That’s 2.9% lower than it’s been in any other season across his long career and it pairs with an 8% walk rate which is his highest mark since 2018.
It's been nothing major yet, but his velocity is also slowly waning. After averaging 95 mph on his fastball in 2022 and 94.8 mph in 2023, he’s down to 94.3 mph in 2024. After ranking 52nd among starting pitchers in Stuff+ (112) a year ago, he’s slipped to 100th this year and his Stuff+ (98) has dropped 14 points. That’s a significant drop in a short amount of time.
Bookmakers have set Darvish’s outs recorded prop at 16.5. That’s a number he’s hit in just one of his seven starts this season while averaging 14.4 outs. He faces the Los Angeles Dodgers, a potent lineup that also has a patient approach — they lead the league with a 12.4% walk rate against right-handed pitchers across the last 15 days.
Give me the Under here. He’s been flying Under this mark all season and now has a difficult matchup against one of the league’s best lineups.
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Yu Darvish Under 16.5 outs recorded
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8
Freddie Freeman has found success against Darvish in his career, going 9-for-32 with two home runs, four walks, and a .924 OPS. He’s averaging 2.4 total bases across his last 10 games and is 3-for-6 in this series with a home run.
I’m adding the Over as both starting pitchers are a little shaky despite the weight their names carry.
The right-hander was far from lights out in six Minor League appearances before the call-up, sporting a 4.15 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. It’s going to take him some time to ramp up to full speed and the Padres are mighty capable against righties, posting a 118 wRC+ and .330 wOBA across the last 15 days.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres live odds
Dodgers vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+120) | San Diego +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -130 | San Diego +110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last six meetings with L.A. All four wins cashed tickets of +145 or longer.
- San Diego has cashed the first-five moneyline in 12 of its last 16 home games.
- San Diego is 4-0 O/U in Darvish’s last four starts while L.A. is 4-0-1 O/U in Buehler’s last five starts.
- L.A. has cashed the Over in 68 of its last 122 games.
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Dodgers vs Padres trend
Yu Darvish has recorded fewer than 15.5 outs in six of his seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
Dodgers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet LA, SDPA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (0-0, 6.75 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Yu Darvish (2-1, 2.94 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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