The San Diego Padres took game one of their weekend series against the Los Angeles Dodgers by a final score of 2-1. Will the offenses come back to life on Saturday after combining for just three runs, seven hits, and a whopping 24 strikeouts on Friday?
My Dodgers vs. Padres predictions expect big-time regression from L.A. starter James Paxton, whose underlying metrics are not encouraging, and I’m more than happy to scour the board and find the preferred method for fading Big Maple today.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks on Saturday, May 11.
Dodgers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
James Paxton Over 2.5 earned runs (-115 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
James Paxton has provided the Los Angeles Dodgers with starting pitching depth at a time when his ballclub is battling a ton of injuries at the position. His first year in L.A. has been a success thus far if you just look at the surface-level numbers as he’s amassed a 4-0 record with an impressive 3.06 ERA.
That being said, you don’t have to dig too far to discover several underlying issues. His 5.98 xERA and 5.47 FIP are ugly and he’s walked more batters (24) than he’s struck out (18).
The veteran lefty has been unable to get batters to miss at his offerings, ranking in the 11th percentile in both whiff rate (18.6%) and chase rate (23%). After posting a swinging strike rate above 12% for each of the last six seasons, that number’s down to an astonishingly low 7.9% in 2024.
What’s to blame? The most obvious answer is that he’s lost some serious zip on his fastball, which is averaging 93.8 mph this year — nearly two full ticks below his career average of 95.6 mph. That’s a substantial decrease, especially for someone who relies on pumping gas with routine as a part of his game plan, throwing four-seamers 64.7% of the time.
Simply put, his profile is alarming in several areas and he just doesn’t have it anymore. Paxton’s Stuff+ (74) ranks 139th out of 143 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this year.
One hole you could poke in the San Diego Padres lineup for this matchup is they haven’t hit lefties well (91 wRC+, .291 wOBA). Those concerns are put to rest when you consider Paxton has been running reverse splits for years. Since 2022, left-handed batters have posted a .290 BA against the vet, while right-handed batters lag with a .233 BA.
Big Maple faced the Padres earlier this season and the results weren’t pretty. He walked eight — count ‘em, eight! — batters and allowed three hits across five innings, somehow surrendering only three earned runs in a 6-3 loss.
He’s fortunate that more runs haven’t crossed the plate against him this year, and I’ll bet on immediate regression.
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Padres team total Over 4.5
Xander Bogaerts 2+ total bases
By fading Paxton, I’m also fine taking the Padres to win the game straight up. Xander Bogaerts has found a lot of success against him in the past, notching three home runs and six RBI in 28 plate appearances while posting an OPS of .943. This is the worst version of Paxton we’ve seen and I like Bogaerts to continue laying on damage.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres live odds
Dodgers vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+113) | San Diego +1.5 (-124)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -148 | San Diego +136
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Dodgers vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- Padres starter Matt Waldron is running cold, surrendering 11 earned runs across his last two starts. In just nine innings of work, he’s surrendered 14 hits and three walks while striking out six.
- The Padres are just 1-6 in Waldron’s seven starts.
- Both teams have trended toward the Over this season. The Padres are 21-19 O/U while the Dodgers are 21-18 O/U.
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Dodgers vs Padres trend
Paxton has allowed 3+ earned runs in five of his last nine starts dating back to last year. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Padres.
Dodgers vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, SDPA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (4-0, 3.06 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Matt Waldron (1-4, 5.82 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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