A villain has been born and that heel will make his first appearance in the city of Toronto tonight when Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers open up a three-game set with the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Jays are coming off a rain-shortened loss in KC yesterday but have a full bullpen tonight vs. an LA rotation that continues to lose arms but still enters as a -125 favorite. Is there value on the home side tonight that will be backed by possibly the loudest regular-season crowd in Toronto in a long time?
Join me as I give my Dodgers vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for Friday, April 26.
Dodgers vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays ML (+100 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt has likely had this game circled on the calendar for as long as he’s known the rotation cycle. The right-hander has to face arguably the best offense in baseball in the Los Angeles Dodgers, but thanks to the Shohei Ohtani heartbreak that Toronto fans endured back in December when they thought he was signing with the Jays, he is going to be supported by possibly the best home crowd of the season.
Bassitt has been dependable again this year and continues to be one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball since 2023. The walks are still an issue but over his last three starts, he’s allowed just four earned runs on 15 hits across 18+ innings.
Covers’ prop projections have him giving up just 2.8 earned runs on 4.9 hits with a decent 16.9 outs. He has the best defensive outfield in baseball and now that the bullpen is healthy and guys like Nate Pearson and Yimi Garcia are better than expected, Bassitt can confidently hand over a lead tonight and the Jays might have an early one.
With all the injuries to the LA rotation, it will be Gavin Stone getting the start for the visitors. Stone has 22 hits allowed and 10 walks over his 18+ innings this year. He isn’t projected to throw more than 75 pitches and has failed to get 12 or more outs in half of his starts. He also had a five-walk day vs. the Mets in his last start.
The LA bullpen is not as good as its offense and ranks in the lower third in baseball in ERA and WAR. It will likely need at least 12 outs and the later innings could be the home side’s.
The Jays could go wire to wire but a late push in a tight game is also an out for the ML victory. Following a mismanaged game that left a bad taste in manager John Schneider’s mouth last night combined with how electric Rogers Centre will be today, the Jays to take the opener is where my money is on Friday night.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Dalton Varsho Over 0.5 RBI (+165 at PROLINE+)
Let's stay with the hot stick and get the No.5 hitter to knock in a run vs. a pitcher in Gavin Stone who has control issues and can get traffic on the bases even if the Jays can't square him up.
The top of the order is due for positive regression in terms of average on ob-base percentage. Justin Turner has seen Stone and is 1-for-2 with a home run. There will be RBI opportunities tonight for Daulton Varsho and with Stone allowing a .411 BA to left-handed hitters, Varsho could do some damage.
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Dodgers vs Blue Jays odds
Dodgers vs Blue Jays live odds
Dodgers vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+125) | Toronto +1.5 (-155)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -125 | Toronto +105
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Dodgers vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn't been a lot of line move movement but the little there has been is on the Toronto ML moving it from +105 to +100. The total can be found at 8.5 and at 9.
- Dalton Varsho continues to swing the hottest stick of the Jays. He went 1-for-2 yesterday in the abbreviated match and pushed his hitting streak to five games where he is hitting .471. His six home runs are twice as many as the next-best on the team.
- Toronto just finished a seven-game road trip and dropped three of four to the Royals in the last series. At home, the Jays are 6-3 SU at home this year and their 13-13 SU record is good for last place in a tough AL East division.
- Toronto fans have not forgotten about how close they were to obtaining Ohtani before he chose the Dodgers. The fans tonight will be loud and a lot of energy will be targeted at Ohtani. This is going to be one of the best home crowds in Toronto history for a regular season game.
Dodgers vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.04 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Blue Jays
Dodgers vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, SN1 |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (1-1, 6.00 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (2-3, 3.90 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Dodgers vs Blue Jays weather
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