The Arizona Diamondbacks evened up the series with a 7-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night, setting the stage for a rubber match on May 22.
L.A. has been relatively repressed at the plate lately but gets a juicy matchup against Ryne Nelson, and my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction is all over Los Angeles' team total. Find out the details in my MLB picks below.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers team total Over 5.5 (+130 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s been a tough year for Ryne Nelson. The 26-year-old has been shelled to the tune of a 7.06 ERA, 5.17 xERA, and 4.17 FIP. He’s allowing far too many base runners (1.88 WHIP), hasn’t shown an ability to strike batters out (10th percentile whiff rate, 14th percentile K-rate), and allows too much hard contact (23rd percentile hard-hit rate, career 10.4% barrel rate).
Since returning from the IL with an elbow injury, Nelson has been tagged for 15 earned runs on 29 hits across 14 2/3 IP — the very definition of hittable. If you’re wondering if that’s simply due to a small sample size, I’ll point out he finished with a 5.31 ERA and 1.42 WHIP a year ago in his first extended taste of Big League action and, therefore, hasn’t proven capable of getting batters out at this level.
He’s in for a tough test on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who lead the league in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, walk rate, and ISO. This is a patient and powerful group with star power at the top of the lineup and emerging options at the bottom. Not the kind of group you want to face when you’re riding a cold streak!
The wind is blowing out right-center at 5.8 mph throughout the contest, which only helps the forecast for L.A.’s boppers. The damage shouldn’t stop once Nelson is removed from the game, as the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen (4.64 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) is frequently rocked.
The Dodgers have been relatively quiet at the dish lately but set up well for an offensive surge. Their team total is priced at 4.5 at most books, but the vig is -140 or higher, which is more than I’m typically willing to pay. Instead, I’ll hit the alternative team total Over of 5.5 at +130 odds.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers team total Over 5.5
Dodgers -1.5
Enrique Hernandez 2+ total bases
L.A. sends Tyler Glasnow to the mound, and his superb line (2.90 ERA, 2.56 xERA, 2.56 FIP) indicates he gives his team a substantial advantage in this spot. The Dodgers are 7-3 in his 10 starts, covering the run line in all but one of those wins.
Kike Hernandez has been heating up lately after a slow start, recording a hit in four of his last seven games while homering twice. I’m buying low on a veteran player who has been terrible this year (.589 OPS) but has a career .716 OPS and plenty of positive signs on his Statcast profile.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers live odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (+124) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-137)
- Moneyline: Arizona +245 | Los Angeles -275
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-111)| Under 8.0 (-101)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona is 2-5 in Nelson’s seven starts this year, failing to cover the run line in all but one of those losses.
- The Dodgers have been on a heater at home, winning 11 of their last 13 games at Dodger Stadium.
- L.A. is 19-9-1 O/U at home this season and is 5-2 O/U in its last seven home games against Arizona.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers trend
Arizona has gone Over the total in each of the last three games that Nelson has started. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, SportsNet LA |
| Seattle starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (2-3 7.06 ERA) |
| New York starting pitcher: | Tyler Glasnow (6-2, 2.90 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
