The New York Mets will try to build off of a dramatic Sunday win when they host the Chicago Cubs for the start of a four-game series at Citi Field on Monday.
My Cubs vs Mets predictions for April 29 are honing in on the Under rather than a side, and you can read all about it in my MLB picks below.
Cubs vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are two franchises that have historically produced plenty of strong pitching, and tonight’s matchup is no exception to that rule. While both Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino have enjoyed solid careers, they've pitched especially well to start this season.
Taillon has made just two starts for the Cubs, but both were excellent outings. The 32-year-old has thrown 10 2/3 innings, allowing just two earned runs on 10 hits while striking out eight batters.
Taillon’s career numbers aren’t nearly as impressive, and he’s coming off a pretty mediocre 2023. But he's historically pitched well at Citi Field, holding opponents to a .401 OPS in three starts at the pitcher-friendly park with a 1.71 ERA.
New York will counter with Severino, who is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA over his first five starts in 2024. The 30-year-old is coming off a relatively poor season with the Yankees, but that seems to have been a blip in an otherwise strong career.
While Severino has struggled with his control, he’s still striking out nearly a batter an inning and doing an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just two homers in 27 innings.
The Mets and Cubbies have both been scoring a fair number of runs this year, which suggests a nice battle between capable lineups and two good starters. However, there are a couple of reasons to expect Taillon and Severino to have the edge over the hitters tonight.
First, there’s Citi Field itself, which isn’t conducive to offense. Over the last three years, the Mets' home park has been one of the five worst stadiums for run-scoring, owing to a relative lack of extra-base hits.
Then we have the recent output of both offenses. N.Y. has scored more than four runs just once in its last seven games, scoring an average of three runs per game in that span. Chicago has a couple of seven-run games in that same period but is still down to just four runs per game over itd last seven.
All these factors point to a lower-scoring affair tonight. I’m taking the Under, especially as oddsmakers are offering generous odds on that side of the market.
Cubs vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Mets moneyline
Luis Severino 5+ strikeouts
Along with the Under, I'm also taking a bet on the Mets to win at home against a Cubs team that struggled over the weekend. If New York can win a low-scoring game for us, it'll be on the back of a strong performance from Severino, who has delivered for the Mets so far this year.
I’m also taking Severino to get at least 5 strikeouts, something he's done in each of his last two starts and three of his five overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Mets odds
Cubs vs Mets live odds
Cubs vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +105 | New York -125
- Moneyline: Chicago +1.5 (-190) | New York -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Cubs vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets opened tonight’s game as a -123 favorite. The consensus moneyline is now New York -155, while the Cubs can be found at +140 at some sites.
- The Cubs have won 7.5 units on the moneyline this year, while the Mets are up a little more than 1.5 units on the season for backers.
- The total for this game opened at eight runs. The consensus Over/Under is now 7.5 runs, with -118 offered on the Over and +100 on the Under.
- The Over has a 14-13 edge in Mets games this season, while the Under has the same 14-13 record when the Cubs play.
Cubs vs Mets trend
The Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 matchups between the Cubs and the Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets
Cubs vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 4-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, SNY |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (2-0, 1.69 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (2-2, 2.67 ERA) |
Cubs vs Mets latest injuries
Cubs vs Mets weather
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