The New York Mets will try to salvage a series split as they host the Chicago Cubs in the finale of a four-game series on Thursday afternoon.
The Cubs (19-12) are coming off a dramatic 1-0 win over the Mets (15-15), but New York is favored in today’s MLB odds.
Cubs vs. Mets predictions are expecting a bit more scoring as both sides dig deeper into their rotations on Thursday, despite little so far. We’ll take a closer look at this matchup in our free MLB picks for May 2.
Cubs vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Mets and the Cubs have combined for a total of just 11 runs over the first three games of this series. It should go without saying that they’ve hit the Under easily in all three games, regardless of who these teams have sent to the mound this week.
That’s not to take anything away from the starting pitching, which has been solid on both sides. But these teams both came into the series struggling to score runs, with the Mets, in particular, finding it hard to generate offense over the last week or so.
Both offenses will feel as though they have a chance to break out on Thursday, as neither pitcher is particularly imposing. The Cubs are turning to 24-year-old rookie Ben Brown, who has put up a 4.30 ERA in 23 innings split between the rotation and the bullpen. Brown was solid in his six years of minor league work, and has some promising numbers at the MLB level, pitching to a 1.174 WHIP so far this season. As a starter, Brown has put up a 2.51 ERA in 14 1/3 innings of work over three starts.
The Mets are turning to veteran starter Adrian Houser, who spent most of his career as a back-of-the-rotation arm for the Milwaukee Brewers. The 31-year-old is just 0-3 with an 8.37 ERA in his first five starts for New York. But Houser has seven previous seasons of work in which he pitched to a 4.00 ERA, suggesting he’s a far better pitcher than he’s shown over his last couple of starts.
In other words, there are reasons for optimism on both sides when it comes to their starting pitchers. Coming off a game where these teams combined to score just a single run on 10 hits, it’s much harder to have confidence that both lineups will break out at the same time.
Yet, that’s probably what will need to happen in order to hit the Over tonight. While it’s understandable that bookmakers have added a run to the total to compensate for the weaker pitching matchup, it’s hard to imagine these teams combining for at least nine runs after what we’ve seen throughout the week. That’s especially true for the Mets lineup, which is averaging just 2.6 runs over the last 10 games. I’m taking the Under, though I want to do so at a book that is offering the hook on the total.
Cubs vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Cubs moneyline
Nico Hoerner to record a hit
Along with picking the Under, I’m taking the Cubs to win outright in my same-game parlay. While neither starter inspires that much confidence, the Chicago lineup has continued to produce runs at a reasonable rate, while the Mets are struggling mightily at the plate.
I’ll also take Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner to pick up a hit, something he has done in nine of his last 13 games overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Mets odds
Cubs vs Mets live odds
Cubs vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-210) | New York -1.5 (+175)
- Moneyline: Chicago -105 | New York -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Cubs vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets opened as -115 favorites. That remains the most common moneyline as of early Thursday, while +104 is the best line out there for the Cubs.
- The Cubs have won nearly nine units for bettors this year, while the Mets are about even on the moneyline for the season.
- The Over/Under for this game was set at 8.5 runs initially. Most books are still on that number, though some have moved the total to a flat eight runs.
- The Under is 17-13 when Chicago plays this year, and also has the 16-14 edge when the Mets take the field.
Cubs vs Mets trend
The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Cubs and the Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets
Cubs vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, New York |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, SNY |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Ben Brown (0-1, 4.30 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Adrian Houser (0-3, 8.37 ERA) |
Cubs vs Mets latest injuries
Cubs vs Mets weather
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