The Atlanta Braves will look for the series sweep with a win over the Chicago Cubs at Truist Park tonight. Atlanta has won six of its past seven games, and Chicago hasn’t scored a run in either of the first two games in this series.
My Cubs vs. Braves predictions look at whether or not Charlie Morton can keep the good times rolling or if Chicago can escape Atlanta with a win.
Here are our free MLB picks for this series finale on Wednesday, May 15.
Cubs vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Charlie Morton Under 6.5 strikeouts (-128 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Atlanta Braves righty Charlie Morton is off to another solid start with a tidy 3.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.64 xFIP. Still, Father Time is undefeated, and the 40-year-old isn’t packing the same punch on the bump. His strikeouts per nine innings (8.37) and strikeout percentage (23.8%) are down from last year’s respective 10.08 and 25.6% marks.
This continues a two-year trend, and the other supporting statistics showcase a hurler on the decline. His velocity is down a touch across the board, and his Stuff+ is down to a 73rd-ranked 91 among pitchers with 30-plus innings compared to last year's ninth-ranked 106 mark among hurlers with at least 150 innings.
Additionally, Morton is generating fewer called and swinging strikes than last season with his CSW% down to 27.6% from 30.7%. Opposing hitters are making more frequent contact, with his contact percentage up to 77.5% from 70.4%.
Of course, while this is all nitpicking an excellent pitcher off to a solid start, I also value the patience and plate discipline stepping up to the dish for the Chicago Cubs. The North Siders have the fourth-highest walk rate against right-handed hurlers (9.9%).
Finally, the veteran righty has only fanned seven or more batters in two of seven starts, and I expect to land closing line value on these Charlie Morton odds.
Cubs vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Charlie Morton Under 6.5 strikeouts
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
Braves first baseman Matt Olson is in the midst of a well-deserved heater with a .927 OPS and three extra-base hits across his past eight games. I like the surge to continue Wednesday because he still has statistical correction ahead against right-handed pitchers.
Olson sports an underwhelming .307 wOBA, .165 ISO, 96 wRC+, and .262 BABIP against righties despite a rock-solid 41.2 hard-hit rate, and the reigning Silver Slugger posted respective .397, .306, 153 wRC+, and .289 marks with a 42.4 hard-hit rate against righties across his first two seasons with the Braves.
There’s also a dose of statistical correction ahead for Cubs starter Javier Assad. He’s sporting an unsustainably low 1.70 ERA and 4.0% HR/FB rate given his 4.21 xFIP, and Assad recorded a 3.05 ERA and 12.3% HR/FB rate across 109 1/3 innings last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Braves odds
Cubs vs Braves live odds
Cubs vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-135) | Atlanta -1.5 (+115)
- Moneyline: Chicago +150 | Atlanta -180
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-125) | Under 8.5 (+105)
Cubs vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- There haven’t been notable adjustments to this moneyline, and the Braves are a healthy home favorite to close out the three-game series in winning fashion.
- The total has seen multiple adjustments, and there isn’t a consensus number as of Wednesday morning.
- Pinnacle opened with the Over 8.5 runs priced at -113 and carrying the higher vig, but has since moved the odds to -106 on both sides of the total.
- bet365 has a 9.0 total with the higher vig (-120) attached to the Under as of Wednesday morning. The shop opened with an 8.5 total, and the Over was priced at -125.
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Cubs vs Braves trend
Morton has six or fewer strikeouts in five of seven starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves.
Cubs vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLBN |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (3-0, 1.70 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (3-0, 3.14 ERA) |
Cubs vs Braves latest injuries
Cubs vs Braves weather
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