The Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs are set to begin a three-game series Monday evening and it figures to be a very exciting series.
The Cubs are coming off a series win against the Pittsburgh Pirates while the Braves took two of three from the New York Mets.
How does each team's positive form play into our Cubs vs. Braves predictions? Find out in my MLB picks for Monday, May 13.
Cubs vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Seiya Suzuki over 1.5 bases (+100 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
We are looking to attack the Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez. The right-hander will take the mound for the Braves tonight and while he’s had a decent season, there are some troubling underlying metrics. We believe Seiya Suzuki is the best fit to exploit these issues and are grabbing his base prop as our best bet.
From a historical perspective, Suzuki has zero career plate appearances against Lopez, but there’s reason to suggest he’ll have success against them. As mentioned, the underlying metrics aren’t kind to Lopez. He owns an ERA right around one, but an expected ERA well over three indicated that, eventually, some negative regression should come. One of the reasons why? Lopez’ hard-hit rate. It sits in the bottom 20% of the league, and this is an era that Suzuki is well-suited to exploit.
Suzuki leads the Chicago Cubs in hard-hit rate and has had a solid run lately with back-to-back multi-hit games before going hitless yesterday. A fact that makes him even more attractive in the prop market, given that he’s not in a slump but also seemingly due for a bounce-back game. In addition, Suzuki hits the secondary pitch of Lopez quite well, leading the Cubs in batting average against the slider along with the aforementioned hard-hit rate. That feels especially significant, given that Lopez is mostly a two-pitch thrower.
This is the perfect matchup for Suzuki, and getting it at a plus-money price feels like a steal. I priced this at -125 and would play it to -120.
Cubs vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Seiya Suzuki 2+ total bases
Cubs moneyline
Our same-game parlay pairs our best bet with the Cubs to win the game. Our reasoning? An extension of the analysis above. Lopez is currently on a sustainable path, and at some point, regression is going to hit. It’s more likely than not to happen here against a team ranking in the Top Five of baseball in most power metrics – an area that has given Lopez the most issues.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Braves odds
Cubs vs Braves live odds
Cubs vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-176) | Atlanta -1.5 (+146)
- Moneyline: Chicago +130 | Atlanta -154
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Cubs vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta has had a decent start to the season, but bettors are down on the Braves for the year. Betting Atlanta every game this season would have yielded you -2.07 units – a reflection of how often they are heavy favorites.
- Atlanta has dominated this series recently, winning three straight games. Over the last ten, however, things have been relatively balanced, with the Braves holding a slight 6-4 edge.
- Our Odds History page indicates that we have seen one-way betting action on the Cubs since the market opened. As of publication, the Cubs are all the way down to +122 on the moneyline after opening as high as +135 favorites in some spots.
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Cubs vs Braves trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last six games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves
Cubs vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, 5-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports South |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (5-0, 1.08 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (2.1, 1.53 ERA) |
Cubs vs Braves latest injuries
Cubs vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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