The Houston Astros won their sixth straight game on Friday night when they edged out the Milwaukee Brewers in front of their home fans, and they head back out on Saturday looking for a seventh.
With Justin Verlander getting the ball for Houston, might the surging offense on the other side of the field have its say and level the series?
Let's dive right into it with our in-depth Brewers vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 18.
Brewers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The numbers on the surface don’t look all that bad for either Justin Verlander or Bryse Wilson, but both of Saturday’s starting pitchers have struggled in some key areas.
Neither of these guys has been successful at rolling up ground balls, striking guys out, or limiting walks. In Verlander’s case, he’s at least pitched to a fantastic 28.9% hard-hit rate and low .226 xBA in 29 1/3 frames, but the absence of strikeouts is very much felt after his rate plummeted from 27.8% to 21.5% a season ago, and has dipped again to 19.3% this year. He hasn’t been a fantastic pitcher to contact since this decline in punchouts, and he does carry a poor .415 xSLG into this one.
Wilson, on the other hand, hasn’t limited the hard-hit balls and carries an even-worse xSLG into this one as a fellow fly ball pitcher. He’s been incredibly fortunate to post a 2.65 ERA when you factor in the walks and well-struck fly balls, and while his defense has helped him a bit, Minute Maid Park isn’t a place where you want to allow too many fly balls given it grades out as an above-average home-run park.
Both the Milwaukee Brewers and Houston Astros offenses have been surging of late, which should make for a tough matchup in theory for both pitchers, but one thing I’m noticing here is that the Brewers have posted a poor .734 OPS against fly-ball pitchers while Houston owns a .685 OPS in this split. It’s very clear to me that both teams would rather a pitcher play into their hands as ground ball-happy teams, which steers this one towards the Under for me. It’s a sneaky play given the poor expected numbers for both pitchers, but the matchup does call for it.
Brewers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Justin Verlander Over 5.5 strikeouts
Joey Loperfido Over 0.5 hits
I’m going to get cute here and bet on Verlander’s strikeout prop despite his overall struggles in this area in 2024. He did record eight in his last start, and while we did see his K-rate decline in 2023, the sampling in 2024 is still small enough where there’s some room for improvement.
The Brewers have struck out nearly 25% of the time over the last two weeks, which is one of the 10 worst marks in the league. Given the bad matchup against a fly-ball pitcher, I do think Verlander, who is out there to eat innings at his age, should hang around long enough to get to this number even on a down night for strikeouts.
I also like Joey Loperfido to register a hit here. He’s been down near the bottom of the order, which has brought his price down, but his biggest issue has come in the strikeout department, which is how 41% of his plate appearances have ended. Wilson isn’t striking guys out, and with Loperfido’s strong .445 xwOBA on contact, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Astros odds
Brewers vs Astros live odds
Brewers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 | Houston -1.5
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +132 | Houston -144
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Brewers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Astros opened up close to -150 to win this game and have steadily been bet down by just about everyone with a bankroll, moving them all the way out past -170 to near -175 as of Saturday afternoon.
- With that being said, it’s worth watching the splits from DraftKings, which have indicated that just 34% of the handle is on Houston while 66% of the bets are heading that way.
- The Under seems to be the sharp play here, commanding 80% of the handle to just 56% of the tickets.
- We haven’t seen this number budge off of 8.5, but after some slight movement in the price towards the Over, it’s come back down and is showing signs of moving to eight runs later in the day.
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Brewers vs Astros trend
The Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Astros
Brewers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, SCHN |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Bryse Wilson (2-1, 2.65 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Justin Verlander (2-1, 3.38 ERA) |
Brewers vs Astros latest injuries
Brewers vs Astros weather
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