The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will conclude a three-game weekend series tonight in primetime.
New York will be looking to avoid the sweep, as Atlanta has taken both of the series' opening games. Atlanta has extended their overall win streak to four games.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks and Braves vs. Mets predictions on Sunday, May 12. Make sure to also check out our Braves vs. Mets prop picks!
Braves vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Mets F5 moneyline (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
I like the New York Mets here, especially early, and I'm making it my best bet.
My first five moneyline projections for this game made New York a slight -122 favorite. bet365 was hanging an attractive coin-flip price on the Mets as of late Sunday morning, and I'm grabbing it. I'd even play it up to -120. New York has the better starting pitcher in this game with the better matchup and will be eager to avoid being swept on national television.
Bryce Elder will grab the mound for the Atlanta Braves tonight and has struggled for much of the season. That shouldn't be much of a surprise either, as it is difficult to imagine a pitcher more due for regression than Elder in 2024.
He spent most of last season posting a low ERA but his groundball rate was exorbitant, nearing just over 70% at its height, and he carried an expected ERA that was almost three runs higher than his actual one. It was never sustainable, and we're seeing that now. I think the Mets will do an excellent job of attacking him here.
There's the historical element to this as well. From a basic level, the Mets will have five players in the lineup today that are hitting over .250 against Elder in their career. From a metric standpoint, this New York team profiles well, too.
As mentioned, Elder has been a ground ball-reliant pitcher throughout his career. The best way to combat that is to be a team that doesn't hit ground balls often. The Mets are that. On the season, they've been about average in ground ball rate, but lately, they've been in the Bottom 8 of the MLB.
I've yet to mention Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino, and that's because I think New York just needs him to be solid. This handicap concerns New York hitters having a decisive advantage over Elder. I'm looking for them to be motivated early to put runs on the board and will back them to do that with such a favorable matchup.
Braves vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets F5 moneyline
Starling Marte Over 1.5 total bases
We're pairing our best bet with a prop that matches the above analysis.
The best way to attack Elder is to avoid the ground ball, and Starling Marte does that. He has the best combo of solid contact and the lowest ground-ball rate among Mets players. He'll enter this game second overall in solid contact and with the third-lowest ground ball rate. We'll take him to go over his total base prop tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mets odds
Braves vs Mets live odds
Braves vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -123 | New York +114
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Braves vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This has been a competitive series over the last 10 games, as you might expect from two heated divisional rivals. Atlanta holds a 6-4 advantage in the previous 10 games. However, it was an even 5-5 before this series began.
- Atlanta has had a decent start to the season, but bettors are down on the Braves for the year. Betting Atlanta every game this season would have yielded you -2.07 units – a reflection of how often they are heavy favorites.
- As for New York, bettors are down as well, backing the Mets to the tune of -1.9 units.
- Bettors have cashed in big with Unders on Atlanta all season, with nine of the previous 10 games going Under.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Braves vs Mets trend
The Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Bryce Elder (1-1, 5.28 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (2-2, 2.93 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
