The Atlanta Braves will look to move back towards the top of the NL East when they travel to face the New York Mets on Friday night.
The Braves are coming off a two-game sweep of the Red Sox and will turn to Charlie Morton, while the Mets hope Jose Quintana can rebound from a brutal start and run their win streak to three games.
Our Braves vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 10 explains why Quintana might end up with a sense of déjà vu before this one ends.
Braves vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Marcell Ozuna 1+ RBI (+170 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It’s been a rough season so far for Jose Quintana, and it might get even worse against the Atlanta Braves on Friday night. That’s because he’s going to face two Atlanta hitters with established success against him in his career.
One of those hitters is Ozzie Albies. If Albies weren’t mired in a 3-for-23 slump, I’d be all over him tonight. The markets have priced him based on what he’s done in the past, which is to go 7-for-13 with two homers and a pair of doubles.
If Albies can get out of his slump and get on base, then it should help the other hitter have a solid night — and help us profit at the same time. I’m backing Marcell Ozuna to drive in a run against the New York Mets.
At a price of +170, it’s too good a value to ignore. Ozuna leads the Braves in hits and RBI, and comes into this game having sent a runner across the plate in three straight contests.
But it’s what he’s done to Quintana that makes him more of a threat. In 24 career at-bats, he’s reached base 14 times with 11 hits. Those 11 hits include a pair of doubles and a home run, and they’ve resulted in seven runs driven in.
One of Quintana’s biggest problems this season has been control, and that’s one way to wake up an offense that has been stagnating. He’s already issued 16 walks in 36 1/3 IP, and his last start against Tampa Bay saw him surrender 10 hits in just 2 2/3 IP.
In Quintana’s earlier meeting with the Braves this season, the Mets won 16-4. But Ozuna drew a walk off Quintana in his first at-bat and then hit a hard single to left, which chased him from the game.
Ozuna ranks second on the Braves in EV, leads the team in hard-hit rate, and has notched a .716 xSLG and .339 xBA mark this season. Now he gets to face a pitcher he’s owned in the past, and who ranks in the Bottom 10% of the league in whiff rate, strikeout rate, and xERA.
That’s good enough for me to jump on this price. Look for Ozuna to either get ahold of one tonight, or to take advantage of what should be multiple baserunners when he gets to the plate.
Braves vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Marcell Ozuna 1+ RBI
Jose Quintana Under 15.5 outs
Braves moneyline
In his seven starts this season, Quintana has just one quality start and has failed to record an out after the fifth inning in four of them. Two others have seen him chased before the end of the sixth, including his first start against the Braves.
I expect Atlanta to get to Quintana early, and he won’t have the run support he enjoyed in the first matchup. Charlie Morton is having a solid season, and I’ll back him to have a strong start as the Braves win outright.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mets odds
Braves vs Mets live odds
Braves vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta -145 | New York +134
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Braves vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves are favored at -141 with a five-game lead on the Mets in the NL East.
- The Braves went 5-2 on the road vs. the Mets last season, but the Mets took two of three this season in Atlanta.
- The total of 7.5 sees the Over favored, with early money pushing the total to 8 in some places.
- All three of their meetings this season have featured at least 11 combined runs.
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Braves vs Mets trend
The Braves have hit the Over in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 5-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSE, SNY |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (2-0, 3.50 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (1-3, 5.20 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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