The Houston Astros have a chance to sweep the Oakland Athletics heading into the final game of a four-game set at Minute Maid Park.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Athletics vs. Astros predictions on Thursday, May 16.
A's vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It was fun while it lasted for Joey Estes, a top prospect for the Oakland A’s. In his first start on May 11, he managed to go five innings and gave up just two hits against the Mariners.
It was an impressive debut for the 22-year-old, but he’s going to have a heck of a time against this Houston Astros lineup that’s caught fire following a slow start. Chief among those blazing bats has been All-Star Kyle Tucker.
Tucker’s been mashing to the point that it’s bringing back memories of “Crush City” in Houston. The 27-year-old leads the team in home runs (13), SLG (.597), OPS (1.001), doubles (10), and total bases (92).
He’s already flashed his consistency against Oakland with four hits in 10 at-bats while chipping in three doubles in the last three games. Now, Tucker can take advantage of a young pitcher due for his "Welcome to the majors" moment.
Estes’ top pitches against the Mariners were his four-seamer (54.1% of the time), slider (27.9%), and changeup (14.8%). Beyond that, he threw just two cutters and leaned heavily on his fastball.
That’s music to Tucker’s ears with the way he’s been demolishing all three of those pitches this season. He’s already put up a ridiculous run value of 12 against four-seamers with his .304 average and .768 SLG.
The crazy thing is, he’s putting the ball into play even more frequently against sliders and changeups. Tucker’s hitting .360 with a .560 SLG against sliders so far this season and has a jaw-dropping .556 average and 1.000 SLG against changeups.
Tucker’s racked up 27 total bases in his last 12 games and that should continue against Estes and this struggling A’s squad.
A's vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 total bases
Abraham Toro Over 0.5 hits
For as explosive as Tucker’s bat has been this season, it’s Jeremy Pena who leads Houston in hits (55) and batting average (.333), and sits third in total bases (75). The 26-year-old shortstop should have a chance to get his against Estes. He’s batting better than .340 against both of Estes’ top pitches.
If Oakland wants to keep up with the Stros hot bats, they’ll need run support for Estes. The A’s don’t have a lot of consistency, but Abraham Toro leads the team in hits (43) and is batting over .260 against two of Christian Javier’s top pitches (four-seamer, changeup).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
A's vs Astros odds
A's vs Astros live odds
A's vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Oakland +1.5 (-115) | Houston -1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Oakland +185 | Houston -225
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
A's vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off three straight wins over Oakland, Houston opened between a -213 to -250 moneyline favorite. Most books have settled in between -210 and -225 as opening pitch approaches.
- Both teams have struggled this season and sit near the bottom of the AL West with the A’s at 19-26 and the Astros at 18-25.
- The Over/Under opened at 8.5 and hasn’t moved with some books offering the Under at even money.
- Oakland has been middle of the pack betting the Over this season at 22-21-2, but Houston has been among the worst teams at 16-25-2.
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A's vs Astros trend
The Astros have cashed the moneyline in six of their last seven games (+5.25 units / 49% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Astros
A's vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports California, SCHN |
| A's starting pitcher: | Joey Estes (1-0, 1.80 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Cristian Javier (2-1, 4.01 ERA) |
A's vs Astros latest injuries
A's vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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