The 2023 CFL season is underway and an overwhelming favorite has emerged atop the Most Outstanding Player Award odds board with just two weeks in the books.
Blue Bombers quarterback Zach Collaros is aiming for his third-straight MOP Award and is a +175 favorite after a pair of outstanding performances.
However, don't count out surging Lions quarterback Vernon Adams Jr who has surged up the CFL odds board for this award while Chad Kelly is also a candidate after rushing for three touchdowns in his season debut.
With 19 weeks left in the season, there is still a lot that can change so here are the odds to win the CFL Most Outstanding Player award for every player on the board.
Odds to win 2023 CFL Most Outstanding Player
| Player | Position | Odds to win |
|---|---|---|
 Zach Collaros |
Quarterback | +175 |
 Vernon Adams Jr. |
Quarterback | +600 |
 Chad Kelly |
Quarterback | +650 |
 Cody Fajardo |
Quarterback | +1,000 |
 Trevor Harris |
Quarterback | +1,000 |
 Jake Maier |
Quarterback | +1,400 |
 Bo Levi Mitchell |
Quarterback | +1,600 |
 Jeremiah Masoli |
Quarterback | +1,800 |
 Taylor Cornelius |
Quarterback | +2,500 |
| Dalton Schoen |
Wide Receiver | +2,800 |
| Dominique Rhymes |
Wide Receiver | +3,500 |
| James Butler |
Running Back | +3,500 |
| William Stanback |
Running Back | +4,000 |
| Antonio Williams |
Running Back | +4,000 |
| Tim White |
Wide Receiver | +4,000 |
| Jaelon Acklin |
Wide Receiver | +5,000 |
| Mason Fine |
Quarterback | +5,000 |
| Dane Evans |
Quarterback | +5,000 |
| Lucky Whitehead |
Wide Receiver | +5,000 |
| Brady Oliveira |
Running Back | +6,000 |
| Kenny Lawler |
Wide Receiver | +6,000 |
| Dedrick Mills |
Running Back | +6,000 |
| Eugene Lewis |
Wide Receiver | +6,600 |
| Ka'Deem Carey |
Running Back | +8,000 |
| Andrew Harris |
Running Back | +8,000 |
| Kurleigh Gittens Jr. |
Wide Receiver | +8,000 |
| AJ Oullette |
Running Back | +10,000 |
| Jalen Philpot |
Wide Receiver | +10,000 |
| Keon Hatcher |
Wide Receiver | +10,000 |
| Malik Henry |
Wide Receiver | +10,000 |
| Reggie Begelton |
Wide Receiver | +10,000 |
| Derel Walker |
Wide Receiver | +10,000 |
| Jamal Morrow |
Running Back | +10,000 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of June 21, 2023.
Favorites to win CFL Most Outstanding Player
Zach Collaros (+175)
Collaros entered this season as the clear MOP favorite at +275, and those odds have slimmed to +175 after he dominated in Weeks 1 and 2.
Collaros has completed 44 of 61 passes for 647 yards and five touchdowns while leading the Bombers offense to more than 40 points in back-to-back contests. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Winnipeg played conservatively in the second half against Hamilton in Week 1 after Collaros threw for three scores in the opening quarter.
Collaros has won back-to-back MOPs and has completed 70% of his passes for 4,183 yards and 37 touchdowns against just 13 interceptions last year. The Bombers were derailed in their quest for a third-straight title in 2022 but they are the Grey Cup favorites once again, and Collaros looks poised for another big year behind an elite offensive line.
What's terrifying for the rest of the league is that Collaros could be even better once 2021 CFL leading receiver Kenny Lawler is available to rejoin the team after settling his immigration issues.
Vernon Adams Jr. (+600)
Adams was at +2,200 to win this award before Week 1, but after a couple of strong outings, he now sits second on the board at +600. The B.C. Lions signal-caller has completed 74.7% of his passes for 624 yards while leading his team to a pair of comfortable victories.
Adams was named an East Division All-Star with Montreal in 2019 but had a few injury-plagued years following that breakout campaign. The Leos traded for Adams last August to replace injured QB Nathan Rourke and he ended up starting four games with mixed results.
With Rourke now in the NFL, Adams was given the keys to the offense and should be better now after having an offseason to prepare with the team. If he can lead the Lions to an upset win against the Bombers in Week 3, Adams could close the gap with Collaros in a hurry.
Chad Kelly (+650)
Despite very little experience at this level, Chad "Swag" Kelly opened with the third-best MOP odds at +550 and has since shifted to +650. That drop has more to do with the play of Collaros and Adams than anything the Argonauts QB has done.
The Argos were idle in Week 1 and Kelly impressed in his season debut on Sunday. He completed 14 of 23 passes for 238 yards while adding 28 yards and three scores on the ground.
Kelly played sparingly as Toronto's backup QB last year but took over in the Grey Cup when McLeod Bethel-Thompson went down with an injury and sparked a comeback victory.
The former SEC star and the nephew of Hall of Fame QB Jim Kelly, Chad is as talented as any passer in the CFL and could be a superstar in the league.
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Most Outstanding Player trends
• It's no surprise that this award is usually handed out to quarterbacks and the first nine players on the board are the starting quarterbacks for every team. Even backup QBs Mason Fine and Dane Evans are in the Top-20.
• That said, four of the last 10 MOP winners were non-QBs, with a pair of wide receivers, a running back, and even a linebacker taking home the award.
• The first non-QBs on the board are Bombers receiver Dalton Schoen and Lions wideout Dominique Rhymes who are not coincidentally the favorite targets of Collaros and Adams. Schoen claimed the Most Outstanding Rookie Award last year and leads the league with 205 receiving yards this season despite battling through a hip injury. Rhymes racked up 1,401 receiving yards a year ago and is third in the league with 172 yards after Week 2.
Recent Most Outstanding Player winners
Here are the recent Most Outstanding Player winners dating back to 2010:
| Season | MOP winner |
|---|---|
| 2022 | Zach Collaros (QB) |
| 2021 | Zach Collaros (QB) |
| 2020 | No season: COVID-19 related. |
| 2019 | Brandon Banks (WR) |
| 2018 | Bo Levi Mitchell (QB) |
| 2017 | Mike Reilly (QB) |
| 2016 | Bo Levi Mitchell (QB) |
| 2015 | Henry Burris (QB) |
| 2014 | Solomon Elimimian (LB) |
| 2013 | Jon Cornish (RB) |
| 2012 | Chad Owens (WR) |
| 2011 | Travis Lulay (QB) |
| 2010 | Henry Burris (QB) |
How to bet futures odds
Change your strategy at different points in the season
While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.
If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom).
In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.
Look for value with underdogs
While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system.
Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off underperforming seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.
Follow the narrative
When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.
For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami, he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.
Research historical trends
Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean.
The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. The NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 13 of the last 14 seasons.
Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.
