The Montreal Alouettes head to BMO Field today to face the Toronto Argonauts in the Eastern Final in the CFL playoffs.
It's a rematch of last season's division final where Toronto prevailed as a 4-point favourite and went on to win the Grey Cup.
After putting together one of the most impressive seasons in CFL history, the Argos are even bigger favourites this year with CFL odds installing them at -10.5.
Here are my best free CFL picks for the Alouettes vs. Argonauts on November 11.
Alouettes vs Argonauts best odds
Alouettes vs Argonauts picks and predictions
On the surface, this seems like an easy play on the Toronto Argonauts. After all, they're coming off one of the most dominant seasons in CFL history and went 15-0 straight up and 13-2 against the spread in games where star quarterback Chad Kelly played at least two quarters.
The Montreal Alouettes also consistently beat the worst teams in the CFL but struggled against the cream of the crop, going a combined 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS vs. the Argos, Blue Bombers, and Lions.
However, with the line moving past the key number of 10, the value is on the underdogs. Keep in mind that two of the three meetings between these sides this year were actually very close.
In Week 6, the Argos scored a game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes remaining to win 35-27 and in Week 15, the Alouettes led 20-13 until the final two minutes when Toronto scored 10 points to pull ahead.
The Als were blown out by the Argos in Week 14, however, they shot themselves in the foot with four sloppy turnovers (three fumbles and a pick) in that contest.
For the most part, the Alouettes have done a good job of taking care of the ball, and their turnover margin of +14 ranks second in the league behind Toronto. They're also equipped to take advantage of one of Toronto's few weaknesses; coverage on special teams.
The Argos rank last in the league in opponent kickoff return average and have given up a league-high 17 big play returns. The Alouettes have an explosive return game and despite an injury to star returner Chandler Worthy, rookie James Letcher Jr. has been just as good.
In addition, Montreal's pass defense has been exceptional lately and finished the regular season ranked first in opponent pass efficiency rating (81.2) and yards allowed per pass attempt (7.6). Marc-Antoine Dequoy has emerged as the best safety in the league while Kabion Ento is a lockdown corner and Reggie Stubblefield is one of the top coverage linebackers.
Will they be able to shut down Toronto's aerial attack? Not necessarily, but they should be able to slow it down enough to cover this big spread.
My best bet: Alouettes +10.5 (-110 at 888sport)
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Alouettes vs Argonauts same-game parlay
Alouettes +10.5 (-110)
Under 50.5 (-110)
A.J. Ouellette Over 70.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Als allowed the second-fewest points per game (21.8 ppg) in the CFL while the Argos were third (22.0 ppg) and both teams ramped up their defensive intensity down the stretch.
The Under went 4-1 in Toronto's last five games while cashing in seven of Montreal's previous eight contests.
With Montreal doing a solid job of defending against the pass, I'm expecting a heavy dose of Toronto running back A.J. Ouellette here. He rushed for 1,009 yards in 15 games this year despite the Argos limiting his snaps after they locked up the East's top spot.
Ouellette had just 10 carries for 53 yards against the Als in Week 15 but he racked up 105 yards against them the previous week and rumbled for 95 yards in the first meeting.
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Alouettes vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Argonauts at -9.5 but early money came in on them and they soon moved to -10.5 with some books at -11 as of Wednesday afternoon.
The total has stayed steady at the opening number of 50.5. When these teams previously played against each other in Toronto in Week 14, the Argos were 9.5-point home faves with the total at 52.
The Argos have been nothing short of dominant this season, tying a CFL single-season record with 16 wins and going 14-4 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +10.8 ppg.
Their only two losses came in a game where Kelly exited early with an ankle injury and a road contest against the Blue Bombers which they almost won despite resting Kelly.
The Alouettes have lost to the best teams in the CFL this year but have consistently beaten opponents below .500. That said, this is the first time all year they are double-digit underdogs.
Alouettes vs Argonauts trend to know
The Alouettes are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Argonauts.
Alouettes vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Argonauts key injuries
Alouettes: Kaion Julien-Grant WR (Out), Pier-Olivier Lestage G (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Chandler Worthy WR/KR (Out).
Argonauts: DaShaun Amos DB (Out), Kurleigh Gittens Jr. WR (Out), Henoc Muamba LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
