The New York Liberty are threatening to take the No. 1 seed from the Las Vegas Aces, plenty of reason to watch tonight’s game against Dallas as the Wings try to hold off the Minnesota Lynx for a Top 4 seed.
The last days of the WNBA regular season are certainly filled with intrigue and standings shuffling, but it goes beyond the four teams competing for the last three playoff spots. It covers the entirety of the playoff field.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Wings on September 5.
Liberty vs Wings best odds
Liberty vs Wings picks and predictions
Have you seen how good New York has looked lately? The Liberty have beaten the spread in nine of their last 11 games, and done so by an average of 11.4 points in those nine ATS wins. Even when you add in the two ATS losses, New York has exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by 8.8 points per game since Aug. 3.
That is a month of success when it begins to matter most. And with less than a week left in the regular season, the Liberty are not about to mess with what is working. Rest is not a priority, especially with the No. 1 seed just 1.5 games ahead of them.
New York last faced Dallas in mid-July, losing outright as a 7.5-point favorite. That was the first game back from the All-Star break and kickstarted a mini-lull for the Liberty, losing against the spread in six of eight games (though winning six of those outright).
Let’s pull stats from that July 19 matchup forward. That will include both the lull and the latest month-long surge, hopefully presenting a balanced statistical profile.
Even in that look, one that includes an eight-game stretch of relative struggles before the recent 11-game impressive run, it elicits laughter just how good New York is. The Liberty net rating is +14.2 since July 19, No. 1 in the league and 4.4 points better than the Aces. The Wings are No. 4 at +1.7.
Realizing that disparity, and recognizing New York has reason to still care tonight, the spread defies comprehension. Six weeks ago, the Liberty were favored by 7.5 at home against the Wings. Sure, home-court advantage would naturally knock that down to -3.5 or -4. But tonight’s line of a juiced -6.5 suggests New York has not lapped the field in recent weeks.
The Liberty deserve more than a bucket of credit for running roughshod of late.
My best bet: Liberty -6.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Liberty vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened Monday night at just -4.5 before climbing to -5.5 in the dark and hitting -6.5 while the East Coast had its first coffee on Tuesday morning. The steam offers some appropriate respect for New York, but it did not go far enough.
The total jumped to 171.5 from opening at 169.5, a nod to these two offenses. They rank No. 1 (Liberty) and No. 2 (Wings) in points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break, and No. 1 and No. 3, respectively, in field-goal percentage.
The difference between them, that aforementioned net rating gap, comes defensively. New York ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive rating since July 19, one point behind Las Vegas, while Dallas is last in the league. To put a finer point on it: The Wings have given up 10.7 points more per 100 possessions than the Liberty have in that stretch.
The instinct may be to hear all that and crash the Over, despite the two-point overnight bump, but realize New York has held opponents to 41.7% shooting in the noted stretch, and Dallas is often an inefficient shooting team.
Grabbing the Dallas team total Under 83.5 points is tempting.
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Liberty vs Wings betting trend to know
The Wings are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on one day of rest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Wings.
Liberty vs Wings game info
| Location: | College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, September 5, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS Sports Network |
Liberty vs Wings key injuries
Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu G (Probable).
Wings: Kalani Brown C (Out), Diamond DeShields G (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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