Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Can Minny Play Spoiler at Home?

The Minnesota Lynx have been on a heater for three weeks now, and it just may be time to start believing in them, though WNBA odds refuse to yet... even when Minnesota is at home against the Connecticut Sun.

Of course, the Sun sit second in the league standings for a reason, so any faith in the Lynx will carry a clear risk.

Here are our WNBA picks and predictions for the Sun vs. Lynx on June 22.

Sun vs Lynx best odds

Sun vs Lynx picks and predictions

It's time to stop doubting Minnesota simply because it is on the court. After doing so early in the year paid this handicapper plus money on multiple occasions, continuing to do so has cost most of those winnings in just the last two weeks.

The Lynx have won four of their last six games outright, all four coming as underdogs. They've beaten the spread in six of their last eight games, those first two also coming as underdogs.

In other words, Minnesota is 6-1 ATS as an underdog since May 30 and 4-1 outright as a dog since June 3. That exception came against defending champion and current frontrunner Las Vegas, hardly something that translates to other games, even to the No. 2 team in the league.

What changed? It would seem continuity. After Sylvia Fowles’s retirement, the Lynx had no remaining ties to their dynastic days. Then guard Kayla McBride missed two early-season games, while forward Napheesa Collier may have needed some games to get her rhythm back after missing all but four games last year.

Once those two got back into the flow of things, the rest of the roster followed. Collier, in particular, has been on a roll, averaging 24 points in her last seven games, a number diminished by getting benched after just 26 minutes in that blowout loss to the Aces.

It took a while, but bookmakers finally caught on to Collier’s scoring, bumping her points prop to 22.5 points with the juice to the Over after it was just 20.5 over the weekend against Las Vegas.

Collier may still be a good bet tonight, but with that juice reducing the value, looking elsewhere for value is prudent. That value can be found in the obvious and simple.

Minnesota has been outperforming expectations for three weeks now and it's time to stop fading it. Collier and McBride are veterans capable of extending this strong streak.

Only one of those outright wins came at home, mostly because the Lynx have been on the road out west for a week. This is one of the more loyal fanbases in the league, and on a Thursday night, plenty will show up.

The moneyline has fallen a bit throughout the day, but the home-court advantage and recent trends should knock it further. For now, there remains value in betting on Minnesota.

My best bet: Lynx moneyline (+170 at BetMGM)

Sun vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis

This line was widely available favoring the Sun by 5.5 points this morning before falling to -4.5 by the time most in Minnesota had gotten to the office. Logic suggests the move came from bookmakers finally giving the Lynx some due.

It could also be because they've been giving the Sun a bit too much credit. Connecticut keeps winning; by all means, recognize that, but the Sun are just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games, including winning by five as a 6-point favorite at Minnesota on June 1.

The Aces have changed league-wide expectations, and they've also skewed some math. When they blow out teams like the Lynx, the losers are improperly knocked in bookmakers’ algebra.

Beating Las Vegas does not happen often, and when it does, that may also boost the victor by a bit much. When the Sun beat the Aces two weeks ago, Las Vegas was playing its fourth road game in a week. That was a schedule loss as much as anything else, though it may not have been factored as one in the math.

Having said all that, even tonight’s +4.5 looks too lofty.

This total opened at 159 or 159.5 before settling at 158.5, hardly an informative move. That said, it may hint at sharps expecting Minnesota to dictate this game. The Lynx have hit the Under in eight of their 12 games this season, including five of their last six.

Sun vs Lynx betting trend to know

The Under is 3-0 in Minnesota’s last three games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Lynx.

Sun vs Lynx game info

Sun vs Lynx key injuries

Sun: Brionna Jones F (Out).
Lynx: Aerial Powers F (Out), Diamond Miller G (Out), Jessica Shepard F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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