UFC Fight Night Barcelos vs Jones Picks and Predictions: Jones Suffers Yet Another Setback

While these two fighters have lost a combined fight straight fights, Raoni Barcelos is entering a rightful -235 favorite and should have the advantages needed to put his losing streak to an end. We break it all down in our UFC betting picks below.

Sep 29, 2022 • 12:52 ET • 4 min read
Raoni Barcelos UFC Fight Night
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones is scheduled for three rounds in the bantamweight division as a featured undercard attraction on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card from Las Vegas.

It’s been two years and counting since Barcelos and Jones came home from work with a win, so something’s got to give between these skidding battlers.

UFC betting odds have Barcelos favored to end his streak as a -235 favorite, with Jones looking to avoid his third straight loss as a +195 underdog. 

Barcelos vs Jones fight odds

Barcelos vs Jones method of victory odds

Method of Victory Raoni Barcelos Trevin Jones
To win by KO/TKO +340 +550
To win by Points +125 +500
To win by Submission +850 +1,100
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Sept. 29, 2022.

Barcelos vs Jones picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Barcelos vs Jones betting preview

One of these two has to snap out of their recent funks to get their careers back on track. Both Barcelos and Jones have dropped their last two fights, and while Barcelos still remains right outside of the Top 15, Jones taking another loss here could hurt his chances with the promotion. Of the two, Barcelos has the higher talent ceiling, though one wonders if he’s peaked in spite of his recent setbacks.

Barcelos is a well-rounded striker that works behind sharp, ranged shots and leg kicks. An active striker with a sturdy chin, Barcelos lands 5.98 significant strikes per minute at 51% but receives a troubling 5.64 shots in return. He has 10 stoppages in 16 wins but is looking for his first win since 2020 after losing back-to-back fights against Timur Valiev and Victor Henry.

Covers UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

Jones is tough when he gets going, but getting going seems to be the tough part. “5 Star” lands 2.90 significant strikes per minute at 42% and takes 5.00 strikes in return. He’s explosive when he can connect, but he’s let a few fights go because of his inability to move his hands, as evident in his two-fight skid with a submission loss to Saidyokub Kakhramonov and a recent decision defeat to Javid Basharat.

Though both fighters are fishing for a win, Barcelos’ underperformance is troubling, but he has all the tools to give Jones the business as long as he comes in focused and mindful of Jones’ athleticism. Jones delivers big shots in low doses, but against an opponent who will aim to outwork him and bully him, he’ll have to abandon his selective offense and go for broke.

Barcelos vs Jones tale of the tape

Raoni Barcelos   Trevin Jones
35 Age 32
5-foot-7 Height 5-foot-7
135 lbs Weight 135 lbs
67 inches Reach 70 inches
16-3 (8 KO) Record 13-8 (3 KO)

Barcelos vs Jones UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

While Jones is capable of scoring an upset, he simply doesn’t match up well against Barcelos. The Brazilian’s superior striking technique combined with Jones’ bad habits like loading up and swinging wide is enough to see why he’s a significant favorite.

As Jones waits, Barcelos will work and pile up the points. There could be that moment of drama where Jones lets it rip, but the longer he’s willing to wait, the more scoring opportunities he'll allow for Barcelos.

Because Barcelos can keep this fight standing up, he’ll need to stay active to feed into Jones’ offensive timidness. Once he lets up or gets too deliberate with his attack, Jones will make it a point to close the distance and try to control some time with his wrestling. We’ve seen Barcelos climb higher than Jones so far, and we like to believe that he’s still a class above.

Jones is dangerous, but Barcelos is the better fighter on paper. We like what the paper says, too. We’re going with Barcelos and his many resources to come out on top.

Prediction: Raoni Barcelos moneyline (-235 at DraftKings)

Even if Barcelos has lost a step, he’ll need another off night for the passive Jones to steal a win off him. Jones leaves himself open for strikes while he bides his time, giving Barcelos plenty of chances to score and create the distance on the cards. He could start busting Jones up, but Jones is hard to finish and has never been stopped via strikes.

Holding Barcelos on the moneyline would be a safe bet, but we like him winning on the cards. There is an outside chance he can take Jones down and submit him, but Jones is capable enough on the ground to stay out of danger and make it to the final bell. Take Barcelos on the cards and cash out with a +120 win.

Pick: Raoni Barcelso to win by decision or technical decision (+120 at DraftKings)

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