French Open odds are on the board, just two weeks after the completion of the US Open. Tennis betting quickly shifts to the third and final major of the disrupted 2020 season, starting on Sunday, September 27.
Rescheduled from its usual slot in May, the French Open is contested on clay courts and being a natural surface it’s most affected by the atmospheric conditions.
Rafael Nadal seeks to win his 13th major title on the clay, and he’s a warm favorite to do so. Serena Williams will once again look to equal Margaret Court's record of 24 majors, but given the change of surface and a short period of time to adjust this tournament will surely come too soon.
Covers Experts' Tennis Insiders has your complete break down of the tournament setup, conditions and the odds to win the 2020 French Open. We also look at the favorites, best value underdogs and live long shots in our French Open tennis picks.
French Open conditions
This is especially important, as conditions in Paris are expected to be at least 4-5 degrees Celsius cooler than normal, wind speed is usually higher and night matches are going to be played at Roland Garros for the first time. There is also now a retractable roof on Court Phillipe Chatrier and indoor clay court tennis plays significantly differently than outdoors.
If conditions are overcast/cloudy at night, the ball simply won’t kick up off the surface as much as it usually does in the summer heat. That means we could see some players who prefer hard court appear much more comfortable than usual on this version of clay courts.
Men’s Draw
| Player | Odds to win (as of Sept. 20) |
|---|---|
| Rafael Nadal | +100 |
| Dominic Thiem | +250 |
| Novak Djokovic | +275 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +3,000 |
| Diego Sebastian Schwartzman | +3,300 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | +3,300 |
| Alexander Zverev | +4,000 |
| Stan Wawrinka | +6,000 |
| Marin Cilic | +10,000 |
| David Goffin | +10,000 |
| Milos Raonic | +10,000 |
| Andrey Rublev | +10,000 |
| Denis Shapovalov | +10,000 |
| Borna Coric | +14,000 |
| Roberto Bautista-Agut | +15,000 |
| Matteo Berrettini | +15,000 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | +15,000 |
| Karen Khachanov | +15,000 |
| Gael Monfils | +15,000 |
| Casper Rudd | +15,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Favorite: Rafael Nadal (+100)
Nadal didn’t contest the U.S. Hard Court swing, focusing his preparations on his favorite Grand Slam, hoping to add a 13th French Open title to his collection. He made his return in Rome this week and while he looked rust-free in the opening two rounds, a difficult matchup in the shape of Diego Schwartzman highlighted some potential problems in these cooler autumn conditions, where his forehand doesn’t bounce as high.
Nadal will certainly gain from the best-of-five-set format throughout this tournament, finding his rhythm and range as he gets more match practice. Djokovic remains his biggest threat, especially considering U.S. Open champion Dominic Thiem’s injury concerns, and the atmospheric conditions will play a huge part in a potential Nadal vs. Djokovic final.
Underdog to watch: Novak Djokovic: (+275)
Djokovic was in prime position to win the U.S. Open before his 4th Round default against Pablo Carreno Busta: — a huge chance missed to catch up to Roger Federer’s record of 20 majors.
These autumnal conditions certainly suit Novak in potential matchups against Nadal and Thiem: neither can create quite the same spin and angle to unsettle Djokovic in cooler conditions. Djokovic is a great all-court player, but his most uncomfortable surface has always been high-bouncing clay courts.
Given the seedings, a Nadal vs. Djokovic final appears likely, so expect another titanic battle between two of the game's greats.
Live Longshot: Denis Shapovalov (+10,000)
Denis Shapovalov was a semi-finalist in Rome and despite the perceptions, clay is a good surface for the young Canadian. Shapovalov has made huge strides in the past 12 months, his mindset has changed from playing ultra-aggressive, low margin tennis to willingly participating in longer rallies and using his fantastic lefty forehand to wrangle court position.
Clay suits his game as he has more opportunities to run around his backhand and he has better timing on his forehand — his groundstrokes thrive when not rushed as they can be on quicker, lower bouncing surfaces.
This is a longshot given the quality of Nadal and Djokovic, but Shapovalov will be seeded and should reach the second week, giving huge value at this price.
Women’s Draw
| Player | Odds to win (as of Sept. 20) |
|---|---|
| Simona Halep | +325 |
| Karolina Pliskova | +600 |
| Garbine Muguruza | +900 |
| Victoria Azarenka | +1,000 |
| Serena Williams | +1,100 |
| Kiki Bertens | +1,400 |
| Petra Kvitova | +1,700 |
| Elina Svitolina | +1,700 |
| Elise Mertens | +2,500 |
| Marketa Vondrousova | +2,500 |
| Jennifer Brady | +2,500 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | +3,000 |
| Iga Swiatek | +3,000 |
| Elena Rybakina | +3,000 |
| Coco Gauff | +3,300 |
| Anett Kontaveit | +3,300 |
| Maria Sakkari | +3,300 |
| Sofia Kenin | +4,000 |
| Angelique Kerber | +4,000 |
| Johanna Konta | +4,000 |
| Karolina Muchova | +4,000 |
| Amanda Anisimova | +5,000 |
| Petra Martic | +5,000 |
| Sloane Stephens | +5,000 |
| Dayana Yastremska | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Favorite: Simona Halep (+325)
Halep was another player who opted out of traveling to the U.S., instead focusing on another deep run on her favorite surface. She picked up a title in Prague and at the time of writing has reached the final in Rome.
The damper, cooler conditions will likely protect her game against big ball-strikers, while her serve remains vulnerable an even slower court and lower bounce will make it even easier for her to retrieve balls and defend from the baseline.
A worthy favorite but the price is a little bit short, I would recommend waiting until the draw is made to have a closer look at her path to the final.
Underdog to watch: Garbine Muguruza (+900)
Muguruza rediscovered her pre-lockdown form in Rome, beating Coco Gauff, Johanna Konta and Victoria Azarenka. When in rhythm, she’s one of the most dangerous players on tour and her record in Paris is extremely consistent, reaching the Top 8 in four of the last six attempts, including a title-winning run in 2016.
Her aggressive ball striking is a match for anyone on the tour and there are very few players in this draw that can beat her when she’s in top form. This is a big price on a player that’s shown consistent success at this event.
Live Longshot: Dayana Yastremska (+5,000)
Yastremska’s potential is sky high: she’s an excellent all-court player and her shot making ability off both wings is superb. She won a title on the clay in Strasbourg last year and was impressive against Halep last week in Rome, losing narrowly but very unlucky not to win a set.
She’ll be seeded in this draw and while she’s only reached the second week of a major once, it’s only a matter of time before this 20-year-old becomes a regular at the latter stages of big tournaments.
