Australian Open Women's Final Picks: Aces High

Naomi Osaka and Jennifer Brady face off in a rematch of the 2020 US Open semi-final, which proved to be one of the best matches of the year.

Feb 18, 2021 • 08:38 ET
Naomi Osaka Jennifer Brady Australian Open women's final
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Australian Open women’s final is an all-American affair. Naomi Osaka contests her fourth major final, seeking to maintain her 100 percent winning record, while Jennifer Brady plays her first slam final.  

Covers Experts resident tennis expert Tennis Insiders breakdown the players and how they match up with our Australian Open Women’s Final picks. 

Australian Open women's final betting preview

Naomi Osaka betting breakdown

Should Naomi Osaka win the title, she will almost certainly look at her 3rd round match versus Garbine Muguruza as a turning point. She rallied from 6-4/2-0 down to force a 3rd set, and she then had to save two match points at 3-5 before reeling off four straight games to prevail 7-5 in the decider. Her ability to play clutch tennis in the tightest moments on the biggest stage is a rare attribute and one that has played a crucial role in her success. Her path to the final has been extremely tough, facing the big hitters Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Muguruza & Serena Williams while Ons Jabeur & Su-Wei Hsieh posed a different challenge with their variety, a style of play Osaka has historically struggled against.

Jennifer Brady betting breakdown

Brady, like Osaka, thrives on hard courts, and she has only dropped one set on her route to the final. Brady’s path to the final has certainly been easier but she was a semi-finalist at the US Open last year, beating Garcia, Kerber & Putintseva (all in straight sets). Her one WTA title to date was on hard court and, again like Osaka, her game revolves around her devastating serve/forehand combination. 

Australian Open women's final matchup preview

The last meeting between these two was the 2020 US Open semi-final, which proved to be one of the best matches of the year. The quality of ball striking from both players was phenomenal and, as expected, the match was serve-dominated, with each player only managing a single break of serve. Brady hit 10 aces and won 77 percent of 1st serve points while Osaka hit 9 aces and won 84 percent of 1st serve points. 

Both players want to use their serve to win cheap points & set up their enormous forehands, however, the backhand battle will also be crucial, and Osaka holds edges in movement and defense from that wing. Osaka’s return of serve should be in strong rhythm considering the players she’s faced, and Brady’s kick serve would be more effective on a higher-bouncing court.

Osaka’s experience in major finals will also play a huge part, Brady was visibly nervous when trying to close out her semi-final. 

Conditions in Melbourne are even faster and lower bouncing than New York but the final will be a night match, and Brady will enter at a disadvantage considering she is yet to play a match in the cooler nighttime conditions. This, along with the obvious nerves of playing her first major final could see her needing some time to find her rhythm. 

Australian Open women's final picks

With this match likely to be another serve-dominated contest, the following props have huge value:

  • Over 0.5 Tiebreaks in the match (+275)
  • Naomi Osaka Over 7.5 Aces (+100)
  • Jennifer Brady Over 5.5 Aces (+100)

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