Australian Open Preview and Picks: Djokovic Favored

After much discussion, the Australian Open is going ahead, albeit three weeks later than previous years. Players have completed a 14-day quarantine and entered a week of warm-up tournaments before the slam starts on February 8. The tournament will see crowds of up to 30,000 as Melbourne Park accommodates the largest gathering of fans since the COVID-19 outbreak.

Covers Experts' Tennis Insiders has your complete breakdown of Australian Open betting, including the tournament conditions and odds to win. We'll look at the favorites, underdogs and live long shots in both draws in our Australian Open picks and predictions.

Australian Open Conditions

Like the majority of tournaments, it’s worth noting the outside courts generally play faster, while the main ‘show’ courts are generally slower due to the larger number of viewers.

At the time of writing, conditions were playing closer to medium-fast than the medium-slow of previous years, with the courts likely to get quicker as more matches are played on them.

Australian Open Men’s Picks

Favorite: Novak Djokovic (+140)

Djokovic is without a doubt the greatest hard court player of all-time and there’s little to suggest he’s in decline on this surface. His exit via default in the US Open fourth round will certainly go down as a missed opportunity to chase down both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer’s joint record of 20 slams.

Niggling injuries have become more common in recent seasons, and there’s now more noticeable aggression in his point construction, aiming to use his serve (a vastly underrated shot) to win cheap points. He turns 34 in May and reducing the physical stress per match, especially in the best of five set format, is key.

Underdog to Watch: Daniil Medvedev (+500)

Medvedev finished 2020 in style, winning both the Paris Masters and the World Tour Finals, beating  Alexander Zverev, Diego Schwartzman, Djokovic, Nadal and Dominic Thiem. As the No. 4 seed, a monster semi-final clash versus Djokovic/Nadal appears likely.

Like Djokovic, hard courts are where Medvedev is most comfortable, and his style of impenetrable baseline defense gives him the best chance of dethroning the Serbian. Their 2019 meeting in Melbourne gave a real snapshot of his potential ability and with fitness concerns now addressed, he looks primed for a deep run.

Live Long Shot: Milos Raonic (+4,000)

Raonic has struggled with injuries over the past four seasons and could arguably have reached the final in 2016 had it not been for cramps in his semi-final against Andy Murray.

His performances in the latter half of 2020 were promising, as a finalist at the Cincinnati Masters and a semi-finalist in St. Petersburg and Paris. He possesses the strongest serve on tour and if he can avoid further fitness issues, he’ll be a dangerous opponent for the top seeds in this draw.

Australian Open Women’s Picks

Favorite: Naomi Osaka (+500)

Osaka’s best surface by far, her three major successes have all come on hard court, including one at this venue in 2019. She’s a deserving favorite, her aggression and the power she creates on both her serve and groundstrokes along with her ability to maintain her composure in the crucial moments are true major winning attributes. 

Seeded at No. 3, a potentially mouthwatering semi-final match versus No. 1 seed and home hope Ashleigh Barty awaits. This is a stacked women’s draw and there might be greater value further down the field.

Underdog to Watch: Aryna Sabalenka (+900)

Amazingly, Sabalenka has yet to advance past the last 16 of a major, having reached that stage only once despite now having nine career singles titles to her name, with four of those coming inside the last 12 months. At 22, however, it remains a matter of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ she’ll win a major. Her height, wingspan, ball striking and ability to create effortless power are all outstanding attributes on the women’s tour.

She’s yet to show her potential in the majors, but her best chance will be on hard or grass courts. This price is worth taking advantage, of especially given her tremendous start to the season.

Live Long Shot: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+15,000)

Crazy price on a player who has reached the quarterfinals of every major, including three in the past four seasons in Melbourne with narrow defeats on all three occasions. In two of those years, her victor went on to reach the final (Williams 2017 and Muguruza 2020).

A big, consistent ball striker off both wings, when in rhythm she’s extremely difficult to beat and she thrives in these conditions. Pavlyuchenkova is arguably one of the most dangerous unseeded players in the draw.

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