NBA Picks

Max Strus has posted two seven-point efforts against Orlando, shooting a collective 5 for 15 for the series, including just 2 for 10 from 3-point range. Strus finished the season averaging just over 12 points and his scoring totals hovered between 10.5 and 11.5 for most of the season. But after two quiet games to start the playoffs, his Over/Under for points in Game 3 is down to 8.5 O/U with the Over present plus-money at some sportsbooks. Player projections for Thursday are down from his season scoring rate but all models consulted call for double figures from the 6-foot-5 guard. Those forecast range from 10 points to a ceiling of 11.5, which is more than enough to push past his current Over/Under. My number comes out to 11 points from Strus tonight.

In the first two games of the series, the Orlando Magic are 17 for 72 from three, shooting 23.6% as a team from deep. The Magic are not a good three-point shooting team, but they also aren't this bad. Water will eventually find its level, and shots will begin to fall for the Magic; it's just hard to envision them continuing to shoot this poorly from deep. They always talk about in the NBA playoffs how role players always play better at home. With Game 3 shifting to the Kia Center in front of a sold-out Magic crowd that will have that building shaking, we could see the role players step up and knock down shots for the Magic. I think the Magic should be closer to a 3.5-point favorite, and that's why I'm laying the two points with the Magic on Thursday.

With Donovan Mitchell struggling to score a bit, that is to Darius Garland’s benefit. He has taken 11 shots in each of the first two games of this series, going 6-of-13 from deep in doing so. It took a bit after Garland’s midseason return for him to find his offense, but since the All-Star Break, Garland hit three 3s per game on 7.5 attempts, shooting 39.8%.

When Donovan Mitchell was on the court this season, the Cavaliers’ net rating fit more in line with the No. 2 seed in the East than the No. 4 seed they ended up with. Mitchell raised Cleveland’s net rating by 8.5 points this season, an impact that has not been properly appreciated by the public or by the sportsbooks. The Cavs should not be 2.5-point underdogs against the Magic; taking the 30-cent boost by betting them on the moneyline is worth risking that bucket.

Hart has scored 21 and 22 points in the opening two games against Philadelphia, but has dished out only five collective assists. Hart, who averages just over four assists, will draw added attention from the Sixers defense in Game 3. Hart’s passing has still produced a total of 14 potential assists in the first two tilts and his assist prop for Thursday is trending much lower than normal. Hart’s assist props were sitting at 5.5 O/U heading into the postseason. Player models all call for more than 4.5 dimes from Hart, with many forecasts at 5-plus. Given those prognostications, the Over 4.5 assists should be in the -115 to -130 range. But most mainstream books are dealing the Over at plus-money with a high of +124.

There is no precedent for successfully betting against OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson as underdogs. They have gone 6-0 outright as underdogs when playing together, part of going 21-2 outright and 16-6-1 ATS in their 23 games together. If New York was a 4.5-point favorite in each of the first two games of this series, it would make sense to be a 1- or 2-point underdog tonight thanks to the change in home court. Boosting that by more than a bucket because of the intangibles of the 2-0 deficit in the series is an overreaction to things we cannot measure.

Brunson has struggled getting the ball into the hoop in this series, shooting an ugly 29.1% from the field while scoring 22 and 24 points. Tyrese Maxey has made his life miserable, but Brunson has still found ways to positively impact games, notching 14 in rebounds + assists in each of those two games. Continuing that all-around impact will come at the expense of his scoring and shooting, taking fewer than the 27.5 shots averaged in the first two games.

While Jalen Brunson struggles to shoot well, Josh Hart is not showing any reticence. He scored 22 and 21 points to open this series on 28 total field goal attempts, looking for his shot more often than he did in the regular season. In the six final weeks of the regular season, Hart took 10.1 shots per game. That kind of increase is enough to believe in Hart cruising past his points prop for a third game in a row.

Hachimura scoring contributions have been limited but he did pull down five rebounds in Game 2. The 6-foot-8 Gonzaga product became a force on the glass for L.A. at the end of the season, hauling in an average of seven boards over his final 13 games. Hachimura’s rebound prop for Game 3 is at 4.5 Over/Under, which has been a consistent number over the past month and a total Rui has topped in seven of his last 10 games overall. Player forecasts for Thursday call between four and 5.8 rebounds from Hachimura, with my projection at 5.3 boards. Based on that number, the Over 4.5 rebounds from Hachimura should be in the -150 range but you can find it at plus-money at many books on Thursday morning.

Reaves told the media he has to be much more aggressive on offense after scoring only nine points in Game 2. Reaves averaged almost 16 points in the regular season and his shooting percentages spike to 49.2% from the floor and 39.1% from distance in L.A. His player projections for Game 3 all come in north of 13 points and the majority call for 15-plus with a ceiling of 17.1 points. My number bubbles out to 15.2 points from Reaves on Thursday. The NBA player prop odds have his Over/Under on points pegged at 13.5, which is lowest scoring total Reaves has faced in a long time. Looking at his last 10 outings, his points prop has bounced between 14.5 and 16.5 O/U. Some sharper books are dealing the Over 13.5 as pricy as -134 as of Thursday morning. However, if you shop you can find a cheap ask on the same total, as low as -120.

One player who has not struggled to score this postseason has been Michael Porter Jr., going 9-of-17 from beyond the arc through two games of this series against the Lakers. But that is the usual from role players at home in the postseason. On the road, they will struggle more. Porter hit 36.2% of his 3-pointers at home in 11 games in last year’s playoffs and 33.9% on the road. That slight downward tick should show again tonight in the building formerly known as the Staples Center.

Moving the spread eight points against the Nuggets tonight is illogical. They should be outright favored, though by only a point or two. The books are overreacting out of faith in LeBron James with an 0-2 worry. But “The King” is now only a nickname. The actual King is the soon-to-be three-time MVP. As long as Denver is healthy, it should not be doubted.