Wolves vs Liverpool Picks: Guided by the Lighthouse

After spending most of the year as a makeshift center-back, Fabinho has returned to Liverpool's midfield and has immediately made his presence felt.

Mar 12, 2021 • 21:15 ET
Fabinho Liverpool FC English Premier League
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two teams undergoing brutally frustrating campaigns will collide on Monday, with Liverpool heading to the Midlands to face Wolverhampton Wanderers at Molineux Stadium.

The Reds have been in hideous form lately but earned a morale-boosting 2-0 win over RB Leipzig in the second leg of their Champions League tie to advance to the quarterfinals. The task now, for Jurgen Klopp's men, is to find some semblance of form domestically.

Can the Reds do that on Monday? Find out in our best Premier League predictions and soccer betting picks for Wolves vs. Liverpool on Monday, March 15, with kickoff set for 4:00 p.m. ET.

Wolves vs Liverpool betting preview

Injuries

Wolves: Daniel Podence (Out), Marcal (Out), Raul Jimenez (Out).
Liverpool: Roberto Firmino (Questionable), Jordan Henderson M (Out), Joel Matip D (Out), Joe Gomez D (Out), Virgil van Dijk D (Out).

Betting trend to know

Liverpool has won all five matches against Wolves since the latter's promotion in 2018.

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Premier League sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

DraftKings first posted this match more than a week ago, on March 6, with Liverpool a solid -150 favorite, Wolverhampton a sizable +425 underdog and Draw +280. Liverpool bottomed out last Monday at -120, then steadily climbed up to -162 by this morning. As of 12:45 p.m. ET, the three-way moneyline is Liverpool -143/Wolves +425/Draw +275, with Liverpool taking 79 percent of bets and 84 percent money. Wolverhampton is getting 15 percent of bets/11 percenf of cash, and Draw is landing 6 percent of bets/5 percent of dollars. The total opened at 2.5 (Over -114) and is now 2.5 (Under -121), though betting splits aren't available.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Side pick

A funny thing happened to Liverpool recently. They removed their best (healthy) option at center-back from the back four and immediately improved. How? Fabinho, who has been dubbed Liverpool's "Lighthouse" in midfield, has been filling in as a CB due to the team's litany of injuries. However, the arrival of Ozan Kabak allowed them to bring Fabinho back into midfield and as a result, the team has looked considerably more stable in defense and threatening going forward.

Fabinho can protect the backline while also allowing the midfield to push forward. Thiago, a celebrated purchase who has struggled as a Red, played perhaps his best match for the Merseysiders midweek, with Fabinho behind him taking on defensive responsibilities. Liverpool's horrible Premier League form should make us more inclined to lean toward Wolves, who have lost just once since February, but Fabinho's return to midfield buys Liverpool a bit more trust.

On Monday, it should buy them three points, as well. 

PICK: Liverpool FC (-147)

Over/Under pick

Unsurprisingly, considering they lost their best attacking threat in Raul Jimenez to a horrifying head injury, Wolves have found it difficult to score this season. On 28 goals, only five sides have scored fewer times than the Midlands club this season. It hasn't improved recently, with just seven goals across seven matches since February 1.

Liverpool, too, have seen their attack dry up recently. However, the return of former Wolves man Diogo Jota will have a massive boost to their front three. That was evidenced midweek, when he started in between Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah, who both scored despite a poor run of games before that. Liverpool will likely trot out the same front three against Wolves and while we like them to again threaten going forward, not enough to lean Over in a match between these two sides. 

PICK: Under 2.5 (-122)

Team/Player prop pick

Though Jota is yet to score since returning from a lengthy injury at the start of March, his presence has already been felt with both Salah and Mane getting on the scoresheet. Despite not yet scoring in either Premier League appearance this month, he still boasts an excellent 0.72 goals per 90 minutes, a mark that would be atop the Premier League if he met the minutes played requirement (as it stands, Salah leads all players at 0.68). Jota's addition looked to be absolutely massive early in the year before an injury derailed his campaign.  

With Roberto Firmino not 100 percent, nor in good form this year, Jota will have an extended run to stake his claim to the center forward spot moving forward. He should make that claim even more irrefutable on Monday, netting against his former club Wolves.

PICK: Diogo Jota Anytime Goalscorer (+150)

Wolves vs Liverpool betting card

  • Liverpool FC (-147)
  • Under 2.5 (-122)
  • Diogo Jota Anytime Goalscorer (+150)
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