The first matches in CONCACAF's World Cup qualifying octagonal are in the books but it rolls on this weekend, with rivals Canada and the USA clashing on Sunday in Nashville.
Canada, in their first game in the final round of World Cup qualifying since 1997, drew Honduras 1-1 in Toronto on Thursday, while the USMNT were held to a 0-0 draw against El Salvador as they look to return to the World Cup after disastrously missing out in 2018.
Can Canada earn a result on the road? Read on for our free soccer picks and predictions for the USA vs. Canada on September 5.
USA vs Canada game info
• Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
• Date: Sunday, September 5, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1, OneSoccer
USA vs Canada betting tips
- USA (-175)
- Over 2.5 (-106)
Read on for complete analysis
USA vs Canada match odds
USA: -175
Canada: +450
Draw: +260
Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: -106
Under 2.5: -118
USA vs Canada betting preview
Weather
A humid afternoon in Nashville will see rain clouds and thunder roll in around kickoff, with a 60 percent chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms forecast. Temperatures are expected around 80 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff, with 75 percent humidity.
Key injuries
USA: No injuries to report.
Canada: No injuries to report.
USA vs Canada predictions
Moneyline pick
Canada and their fantastic depth of attacking talent were properly introduced to the ruggedness of CONCACAF play against Honduras, as Jonathan David and Tajon Buchanan were rendered ineffective, while even Alphonso Davies found it difficult to find a cutting edge in attack. They will find themselves in a more expansive, flowing match on Sunday against the U.S., but the quality of their opposition will also increase considerably.
That's because, after an average performance against El Salvador, the Americans will be able to depend on their answer to Davies in Christian Pulisic. The Chelsea attacker wasn't allowed to travel with the team to El Salvador because of the country's place on the U.K.'s red list (which would have impacted his availability for Chelsea upon return to England), but he'll be available for selection on Sunday and is expected to start. Pulisic will slot into a mouthwatering attack that also features budding Borussia Dortmund star Gio Reyna, new Premier League striker Josh Sargent, and tireless midfielder Weston McKennie.
In midfield and attack, Canada and the U.S. have a lot in common. They both have fantastically exciting youth in attack, with Canada perhaps even having the edge if not for a lack of experience. In midfield, Canada's duo of Atiba Hutchinson and Stephen Eustaquio complement each other well, with Hutchinson the steady presence and Eustaquio charging forward, while Sebastian Lletget sits in midfield for the Americans, enabling McKennie to do what he does best and drive forward with the ball.
There are a couple of major edges for the States, however. The first is at the base of the U.S. midfield, where Tyler Adams will sit and destroy Canada's attacks. Adams is already one of the best destroyers in Europe and a move to a bigger club is inevitable.
Another edge is the backline, where the U.S. has plenty of experience in John Brooks in the middle, as well as DeAndre Yedlin out wide, while Sergino Dest and Antonee Robinson are both ascending talents in Europe. Canada has received a string of outstanding performances from right back Alistair Johnston and center-back Steven Vitoria, but as a unit, their backline is yet to convince of their quality at the heights of CONCACAF.
The States are more stable in defense and able to create chances just as well as Canada moving forward. Add in their edge in experience navigating World Cup qualifying, and the home-field advantage, and it's tough to see anything but a USMNT win on Sunday.
PICK: USA (-175)
Over/Under pick
Despite a tremendously disciplined and difficult to break down low-block from Honduras on Thursday, and ineffective games from two of their best attackers in Buchanan and David, Canada still managed to get on the scoreboard, fire off 15 shots, have 65 percent of possession, and finish with an expected goals total of 2.4. On a different night, one of the several wayward shots takes a better deflection and finds the back of the net or another Canadian attacker for a rebound. As is, they still broke through once and were unlucky not to find the winner.
It was not dissimilar in El Salvador, where the USMNT took 13 shots and finished with an xG of 1.68 in their 0-0 draw that took place in a hostile environment and without their most dangerous attacker.
The circumstances will be more kind to both sides on Sunday, with neither team likely to embrace the grind-it-out tactics that are so commonplace in CONCACAF. In an open, expansive match that features high-level attackers on both sides, we should expect plenty more goalscoring opportunities. With that, we can expect the Over, too.
PICK: Over 2.5 (-106)
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