Manchester United vs Aston Villa Picks and Predictions: Both Sides Get in on Action

Just days after facing each other in the Premier League, Manchester United and Aston Villa will once again do battle as the two sides vie to advance to the fourth round of the EFL Cup on Thursday.

Erik ten Hag will likely rotate his squad for the midweek fixture with an eye to the final Premier League match before the World Cup. On the other side, Villa now have a manager who is one of the best when it comes down to winning in knockout tournaments.

It should be quite a tactical battle, and we break it down in our Manchester United vs. Aston Villa picks and predictions for Thursday, November 10. 

Manchester United vs Aston Villa best odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of November 8, 2022.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa picks and predictions

Things did not go to plan for Manchester United this past Sunday. Their 3-1 loss at Villa Park ended an unbeaten run of nine matches in all competitions, stretching back to their 6-3 defeat to Manchester City. The Red Devils were put to the sword early, with Unai Emery’s side scoring twice inside 11 minutes and holding on for a comfortable victory.

The suspension of Bruno Fernandes was evident, and while beleaguered midfielder Donny van de Beek tried his hardest, he was unable to provide any sort of spark in midfield. Cristiano Ronaldo cut a lonesome figure up top, and their chances were few and far between as they posted their lowest expected goal tally of the season. Even United’s lone goal from left back Luke Shaw was the product of dumb luck, taking a massive deflection that wrong-footed Villa keeper Emiliano Martinez. 

As for Emery, the new Villa manager couldn’t have written a better script for his first match in charge of his new side. The former Arsenal manager and four-time Europa League winner returned to the Premier League following a long run in Spain and changed up a side that had struggled mightily under former manager Steven Gerrard, despite their talented roster.

Emery’s tactical changes worked to perfection. Leon Bailey terrorized United from a more central role, and enabled Villa to spring wave after wave of counterattack when they were able to force the visitors into turnovers. It was a counterattack seven minutes in that saw Bailey open the scoring, ending a seven-match run for United without conceding from open play. Another break minutes later led to a dangerous free kick, which left back Lucas Digne converted with a sublime kick past David de Gea for the winner. 

With Premier League action this weekend and the World Cup less than two weeks away, I expect to see plenty of rotation in this match. That said, I learned long ago to never bet against Emery in a knockout match, and I’m not going to make that mistake here. Instead, I’ll point you towards the Both Teams to Score market, which I believe will be the best way to cash in on this match.

Manchester United will have Bruno back, and his inclusion in the side, combined with the absence of Dendoncker, should result in at least one United goal. The return of Anthony Martial at the weekend could also see him start in attack. Meanwhile, the oafish Maguire will probably not have both Martinez and Casemiro there to protect him, and I expect Villa to target him early and often as United’s weakness in defense. 

Villa have scored just once in their last four away matches, but Maguire’s inclusion in the starting XI rarely coincides with a United clean sheet. As such, getting both teams to score at this price is simply too good to pass up. 

My best bet: Both teams to score - Yes (-125 at bet365)

Manchester United vs Aston Villa side analysis

Manchester United have lost just once in all competitions at Old Trafford in their past eight matches, a 1-0 defeat to Real Sociedad in the Europa League. They’ve won six in that span, including victories over Liverpool, Arsenal, and Tottenham. However, United did lose last year in the EFL Cup third round to an underdog and will be wary of history repeating itself. 

Aston Villa have been the polar opposite away from home. They’ve gone five straight in all competitions without a win, and have lost five of their last eight away from Villa Park. However, it’s important to remember those matches all came under Gerrard — with the 4-0 defeat at Newcastle last time on the road being the exception, as it came under a caretaker manager.

Villa did beat United 3-1 at the weekend, but that hasn’t kept the oddsmakers from installing United as a strong favorite. The last five competitive meetings between the two at Old Trafford have seen United win three times, with Villa winning one and drawing the other. 

Manchester United vs Aston Villa Over/Under analysis

Manchester United have been stingy, to say the least, at home this season. They’ve allowed multiple goals just once in their nine home matches in all competitions — and that came in the opening weekend. They’ve also kept five consecutive clean sheets, with four of those five matches seeing two or fewer goals scored.

Aston Villa has scored just once in their last four matches away from home, but their defensive record has been poor. They’ve conceded seven goals in their last two road fixtures, and have conceded multiple goals in five of their eight away matches this season.

When these two teams get together, it tends to be high-scoring. Three of the last five competitive matches between the two sides have seen four goals scored in total. However, three of the last five matches played at Old Trafford have seen just one goal scored.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa game info

Manchester United vs Aston Villa key injuries

Manchester United: Raphael Varane D (Out), Jadon Sancho F (Questionable), Antony F (Doubtful).
Aston Villa: Diego Carlos D (Out), Philippe Coutinho M (Out), Leander Dendoncker M (Out).

Manchester United vs Aston Villa recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Manchester United	L-W-D-W-D
Aston Villa	W-L-W-L-L

Manchester United vs Aston Villa weather

Thursday’s weather conditions look cool and possibly rainy, with temperatures at kickoff in the low 50s. There is a 20% chance of rain during the match, with that likelihood growing to 50% towards the end of proceedings. Precipitation could become a factor should the match go past regulation.

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