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I just got boned on race 7 at Santa Anita 6/7/18...

Forum: Horse Racing
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: I just got boned on race 7 at Santa Anita 6/7/18...
dcp1985 PM dcp1985
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Posted: 6/7/2018 9:04:46 PM
So I've always followed horse racing casually, the big races, Triple Crown, Breeders, etc...a few months ago I went to Woodbine live and caught the bug to start handicapping more in depth.  I've always loved looking over numbers, stats, results, trends, and now even breeding trying to find good plays.  I'm still relatively new at taking this seriously so would love to get some insight from the more experienced among us here.

Earlier tonight I was playing a few races at Santa Anita...had a couple plays that I'd done my homework on and was playing.  Race 7 I had a big bet on a horse named Amada Rafaela, trained by Baffert, that had an extremely dominant debut winning by 8 lengths.  He was priced at 3/5 which I know you're probably thinking what a square I am, but like I said I'd done my homework and bet him earlier in the day, a little over $800 to win $500.  

By post time he was down to 1/5 odds online, and even heard 1/9 live odds at the track.  I had the option to cashout before the race for close to $200 profit and obviously hindsight 20/20 this is what I should have done.  As I'm sure you can assume by now, the horse didn't win...but it wasn't that he ran the race and didn't win, he was pulled up at about the halfway point and retired from the race.

So I guess my question to the experienced horse bettors is does this happen fairly often, or was this just an extremely unlucky coincidence?  You know it just seems a little too convenient.  There were 5 other horses in the race with the 2nd fave paying 15/2 and the others obviously at longer odds.  With the overwhelming favourite out of the equation, equal bets on the other 5 horses would have been extremely profitable.  They announced just before post there was about $230k worth of money just at the track riding on the favourite.  Just seems too easy that they pull the horse mid-race and poof goes all the money.

Thoughts?
LRM704 PM LRM704
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Posted: 6/7/2018 9:26:14 PM

You want a bad beat ?  You're leading in the stretch and your jockey falls off. 

vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 6/7/2018 9:47:05 PM
One would think you would not have the misfortune of that happening again for some time, but you do see it from time to time regardless of odds.
I myself draw the line at even money/4-5 plays  but cant fault you for doing so since your doing the research. 
Hope your luck changes and welcome

dcp1985 PM dcp1985
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Posted: 6/7/2018 9:47:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LRM704:

You want a bad beat ?  You're leading in the stretch and your jockey falls off. 


Lol I think I've seen that one on youtube...

I'm not necessarily calling it a bad beat, because he kinda didn't even really get beat...I'm just saying it seems a little too easy, convenient, whatever you want to call it.

Just curious if others have experienced this happening more often in these situations than the averages would dictate?
AtlantaDavid PM AtlantaDavid
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Posted: 6/8/2018 8:29:56 AM

They are animals with all kinds of issues physically and mentally-- this isn't unusual at all    If you watch 10 races there will be at least 1 horse pull up mid race.  You just had bad luck as it was a huge fav you put real money on

dcp1985 PM dcp1985
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Posted: 6/8/2018 6:26:29 PM
Jesus christ I just had the jockey fall off in r11 at Belmont lol...wtf is going on!  Not my weekend.
the z bar PM the z bar
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Posted: 6/9/2018 7:42:37 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by AtlantaDavid:

They are animals with all kinds of issues physically and mentally-- this isn't unusual at all    If you watch 10 races there will be at least 1 horse pull up mid race.  You just had bad luck as it was a huge fav you put real money on

Filly was put down due to an injury that on the backstretch. RIP

dcp1985 PM dcp1985
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Posted: 6/9/2018 11:24:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by the z bar:

Filly was put down due to an injury that on the backstretch. RIP


Damn that's sad...kinda makes losing my bet not really a big deal.

Thanks for the update z bar.
StanGhazi PM StanGhazi
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Posted: 6/9/2018 10:10:27 PM

an_speak

Forum: Horse Racing
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