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DEGENERATE DERBY= BOMBS AWAY$$ ACTION GALORE !!! Johnny WEIR

Forum: Horse Racing
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: DEGENERATE DERBY= BOMBS AWAY$$ ACTION GALORE !!! Johnny WEIR
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/4/2018 11:32:58 PM
Whats Up Brothers 

One of my Favorite weekends of the YEAR ...

Best of LUCK TO ALL COVERS BROTHERS / GOD BLESS 

MAY WE ALL LIVE IN FANTASTIC HEALTH 




I am a DEGEN HORSE PLAYER for 45 weeks of the year , which means nothing when it comes to picking winners 

LOVE THE ACTION THE PONIES PROVIDE 


5 LONG SHOT HORSES APPEAR TO HAVE FANTASTIC VALUE

 
BETTING ALL 5 of them for $40  to WIN and UNDERNEATH in the EXOTICS  




DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 12:11:11 AM


$ 40 TO WIN ON 

# 17.    SOLOMINI   

Morning line  30-1  
Current odds as of friday night 67-1
Guessed final odds 40-1 

MY ODDS 15-1  = FANTASTIC VALUE 

The 17 hole has NEVER WON A DERBY = BLAH , BLAH , BLAH .... Streaks are meant to be broken .....The early money is avoiding SOLOMINI like the Plague ..GOOD FOR ME/US

NO WORSE THAN 2ND IN ALL 6 RACES...   5 OF THOSE 6 were STAKES RACES.... lncluding 4 Grade 1's ...Been the chalk or 2nd choice in 5 of 6 ...

Predict he will love the added distance and could be FLYING LATE .. IF Thats the Case the tote board will. Low up ...


PRATT / BAFFERT COMBO in the MONEY 22 OF 35 STARTS 


FLAVIEN PRATT is one of my FAVORITE JOCKEYS ...  Often Wins or comes in the money when the horse has no business doing so .... HOWEVER this HORSE has loads of CLASS ....






EXOTICS TO FOLLOW
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 12:31:11 AM
$40 to win on 

#9   HOFBURG 

ML  20-1 
Current odds 23-1 
Guessing final odds  22-1 

My ODDS 18-1 

LIGHTLY RACED , But has looked better in each of 3 starts ...
Finished 2nd last race behind audible ...

ANOTHER HORSE WHO SHOULD BE FLYING LATE !!!!
Extra distance could be a bonus ... 


IRAD ORTIZ JR  is  another one of my FAVORITE ...He and his Brother often OWN NY ...

Jockey/ trainer combo ( MOTT ) in the money 14 of 29 starts ..

Only TAPIT horse in the race( often back TAPIT horses ..) 


 

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 1:05:04 AM
TIER 1 HORSES 

These 6 should be 12-1 or less according to my numbers



HOWEVER I AM NOT BETTING THESE HORSES FLAT TO WIN ...

I DONT SEE THE VALUE !!!!!

THEY WILL BE USED ON TOP OF MY 5 WIN BET HORSES IN THE EXOTICS ..





#`7   JUSTIFY    My Odds  6-1   current odds 7-2 
I get it , he is 3 for 3 ... Heavy chalk in all 3 ...But only 1 of them was a stakes race and believe this horse will be way kver bet .....I would want 7-1 or better before a win bet would be Justified ..lol.....


16  MAGNUM MOON  MY ODDS 8-1    Current odds 13-1 
Could make a strong case to bet him at 13-1 ...4 wins in 4 starts ...beat my top Bomber Solomini twice ....SAEZ / PLETCHER have been in the money 61 of 110 starts ( 28 wins) ....guessing he will go off around 10-1 ....

6.  GOOD MAGIC        MY ODDS 9-1   ` Current odds 8-1 
4 of 5 starts are stakes races ....i NEVER IGNORE JOSE ORTIZ / CHAD BROWN COMBO that has been in the money 77 of 117 starts ....The MRS loaded up on this one ...


5.   AUDIBLE.       MY ODDS 10-1.    Current odds 6-1 
Has won last 4 , but i think he is being over bet ....
I am NOT a big JAVIER CASTELLANO FAN ....Although this combo has been in the money 74 of 126.....

11.   BOLT D'ORO     MY ODDS 11-1     current odds  9-1 
Castellano jumps ship ...New rider is Victor Espinoz.....Loser in last 3 starts ....beaten by Solomini in November ...


14    MENDELSSOHN.    MY ODDS 12-1.     CURRENT ODDS 5-1 
Way over bet according to my numbers ...Last 3 wins have been impressive ....










DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 1:06:14 AM
* ERROR ABOVE 


MEANT TO SAY SOLOMINI HAS FINISHED IN THE MONEY IN ALL 6 STARTS ...1 SHOW)
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 9:36:02 AM
$40 to WIN on 

#2  FREE DROP BILLY 

Morning line 30-1 
Current odds 42-1 
Guessing final odds 30-1 

My odds 26-1 


Could have finished 2nd in the blue grass but was impeded in the stretch ...

Has been in the money for 7 of 8 starts ...7 of 8 have been stakes races ....

Dale Romans is known for blowing up the tote board ...

Another horse who should like the added distance ...

Wondering if they held this horse back , doing just enough to qualify ???

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 9:47:47 AM
$40 to WIN on 

#4   FLAMEAWAY  

Morning line 30-1 
Current odds.  55-1 
Guessing final odds. 35-1 

My Odds 28-1 


Decent chance it rains around 4 or 5 o clock today .. FLAMEAWAY IS HAS 2 WINS ON OFF TRACKS .. 1 SLOPPY , 1 MUDDY .....

Finished either first or 2nd in all 4 starts this year ...

Has won on Turf , wet , synth, tracks ..


SHOULD BE IN THE FRONT OF THE PACK AT THE HALF ...

Does he have enough stamina to finish in the money ????

howzuck PM howzuck
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Posted: 5/5/2018 10:52:47 AM
Doubleup, I love your comments, you think a lot like I do, although I don't agree with everything you are saying, a lot makes a ot of sense to me  This derby is more wide open than recent ones, hopefullyrain won't be an issue, if it is, you must play my boy jack (yes I know his current odds are WAY too low here), I do think Magnun Moon has big chance, can he really go off at double digits?  I thought Hoffberg would be a "wise guy" horse, wow at 20-1 or better, I also agree will be absolutely flying at the ende, hopefully track condition won't impede him.  Justify is very talented, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he wins, but he has never run against more than 6 horses in any race, this is a bigger factor than you think, first time on the big stage, could be the real deal, but will be 3-1 or less in this big and very good field.  Yes he must be in exotics, but shlould be played to be beat.  Mendelssen will be overbet, very often, all this travel doesnt bode well, only in saver exotics for me at 5-1or so.  Watch out for Good Magic and Vino Rosso, both in very sneaky good form.  Best of luck!
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 11:29:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by howzuck:

Doubleup, I love your comments, you think a lot like I do, although I don't agree with everything you are saying, a lot makes a ot of sense to me  This derby is more wide open than recent ones, hopefullyrain won't be an issue, if it is, you must play my boy jack (yes I know his current odds are WAY too low here), I do think Magnun Moon has big chance, can he really go off at double digits?  I thought Hoffberg would be a "wise guy" horse, wow at 20-1 or better, I also agree will be absolutely flying at the ende, hopefully track condition won't impede him.  Justify is very talented, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he wins, but he has never run against more than 6 horses in any race, this is a bigger factor than you think, first time on the big stage, could be the real deal, but will be 3-1 or less in this big and very good field.  Yes he must be in exotics, but shlould be played to be beat.  Mendelssen will be overbet, very often, all this travel doesnt bode well, only in saver exotics for me at 5-1or so.  Watch out for Good Magic and Vino Rosso, both in very sneaky good form.  Best of luck!


Great to hear from u Brother ...appreciate ur time ...

I see my Boy Jack is breed for the wet track ....Cant believe he is down to 5-1 .... the Biggest Mush at my OTB is all over this horse ...Have only seen this dude win 3 times in the last 5 years ...lol ...which means nothing ...but he has $300 to win and loaded up on him in the exotics .....

Justify racing in those smaller fields is a major concern for me as well .....

HOFBURG at 20-1 or better looks great , just like you I thought the so called sharps would be all over ..... Solid capper friend of mine has been on fire over the last 2 months , and HOFBURG is his choice ...  

MAGNUM Moon at double digits would be worth some late money.....



Best of luck Brother ...May you hit BIG 
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 11:39:38 AM
$40 to WIN on 

#12 ENTICED 

ML 30-1.  
Current odds.  54-1.  
Guessing final odds 50-1   


My ODDS.  30-1 

Stalker who was bumped mid stretch in the WOOD MEMORIAL before finishing 2nd ....

Dont think this horse has the speed to win , but could hit the board ....

Likely a $40+ donation ... But I do like what i see in his past performances .....


Running late for opening day of the kids soccer season , so I must cut this write up short 

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 11:48:25 AM
Exotics 

$2 exacta Wheels with the 
5,6,7,11,14,16  OVER the 2,4,9,12,17 
Cost  $60`

$1 exacta wheels with the 
2,4,8,9,10,12,17,18  OVER the 2,4,9,12,17 
Cost $35 



50 cent TRI WHEEL 

1ST   5,6,7,11,14,16 

2ND   5,6,7,9,10,11,14,16,17,18

3RD.    2,4,9,12,17 
Cost $129 ...only in for 25 cents fpr $64.50 
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 12:54:13 PM



As posted in the NHL FORUM YESTERDAY 



SPECIAL PICK 3  STARTING ON FRIDAY 

 

OAKS / FORRESTER / DERBY  PICK 3.   

 

50 CENTS 

 

TICKET 1 

OAKS 

2,7,10,14

FORRESTER 

1,4,10 

DERBY 

4,5,6,7,9,11,12,14,16,17. 



COST $60

 

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 12:58:17 PM
419.50 wagered so Far .....

BE A LOT COOLER IF IT WAS 420 
thatguy PM thatguy
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Posted: 5/5/2018 2:02:37 PM
Good stuff there. Good write ups. I may throw a little on Hofburg now. Thanks for the time to post 
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 5/5/2018 3:33:32 PM
Johnny!   


Good luck brother, I'm heavy on Audible
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 3:54:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thatguy:

Good stuff there. Good write ups. I may throw a little on Hofburg now. Thanks for the time to post 

Thanks for reading Brother 

Best of Luck 
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 3:57:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BWS77:

Johnny!   


Good luck brother, I'm heavy on Audible

Johnny is one of a kind ...I respect his style ....

Best of Luck Brother ...  AUDIBLE looks very good 
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/5/2018 7:16:58 PM
Forum: Horse Racing
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