Posted: 5/3/2018 5:57:50 PM
1) I am a believbe's no Big Brown freak. In addition to being lightly raced, he's never been out of SoCal and, as someone else here pointed out, he has raced against no more than 6 horses. He also beat Bolt d'Or when Bolt came off a grueling San Felipe. BTW, Ruis going all out to win the San Felipe was asinine. Just goes to show you why he's 3 for 61 lifetime.
2) There are major reasons why foreign entries have a rough time in the Derby. According to drf. Com, “Since 1940, 45 horses have prepared for the Derby abroad, with two winners and one second place finisher. The two winners were Bold Forbes in 1976, who came to the race from Puerto Rico and Canonero II, who famously represented Venezuela with his win in 1971.” The best a Euro has done in the Derby is finish second in 1986 (Bold Arrangement) Refer to George Washington and Thunder Snow for Euro’s performing in the KY Derby.Now Mendelssohn is a great horse. He won by almost 19 in Dubai, but, as most of us know, Dubai in March is where most shipped in horses go to regress….with rare exception. We also know the front-end bias on that track is legendary, and it certainly was on the day Mendelssohn won.
3) Few closers, certainly no Lookin At Lee or Commanding Curve here, with 7, 8 or maybe even 9 breaking for the lead with the potential of a blistering pace lead by Promises Fulfilled’s cheap speed and Justify out front. That scenario, in my mind, gives Vino Rosso, Good Magic, My Boy Jack and Solomini solid shots. Haven’t made my final selections, but I am leaning toward closers/stalkers.