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Derby Talk

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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Derby Talk
milagrosman PM milagrosman
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Posted: 5/3/2018 11:53:04 AM
Rain is in the forecast for Derby Day....comments welcome on the impact it will have on the Derby runners...Thanks and good luck to all

milagrosman PM milagrosman
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Posted: 5/3/2018 11:54:07 AM
Rain is in the forecast for Derby Day....comments welcome on the impact it will have on the Derby runners...Thanks and good luck to all

Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/3/2018 12:04:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Excited to see the American Turf on Saturday.
Top 3 horse figure to be Untamed Domain[Animal Kingdom]
 Threeandfourpence,and Rushing Fall.
Most of you remember Rushing Fall winning the Fillie turf race on Breeders Cup Day. Powerful Race.
Untamed is a horse Ive want to see win but so far, just mediocre results.
Fourpence,a runner up to Mendelssohn on March 9th,and 3 weeks later a disappointing 9th in the UAE Derby.

Dont see either keeping up with Rushing Fall.
Maybe theres another in here I just dont see.
Anyway 6-1 ml on Rushing Fall. I know that wont hold up but gotta like this horse to win on Saturday. Any thoughts guys.
Heres the win on Breeders Cup Day



winnihttps://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Rushing_Fallng

Hey vet...Rushing Falls looks real tough in the 9th. Wheeling her in the doubles may be a decent play. I think #6 River Boyne could close for 2nd.

BTW..Flavien Prat is on a couple of live horses this weekend.
Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/3/2018 12:24:09 PM
It's hard enough to cap a fast track &  rain complicates it even further. Sires like Langhfur & More Than Ready offspring are known to love a wet track & there are plenty of others.

If it does turn up wet, Race 5 # 2 Cool Arrow will be tough to beat.
Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/3/2018 1:11:58 PM
vet...Just heard Rushing Falls will race Friday & not against the boys on Saturday.
vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/3/2018 4:41:44 PM
D!amn. Terrible odds on her Friday. Oh well. 
50% forcast for rain Saturday. Churchill drys out nicely .
Hopefully it doesnt come into play.

By the way ,not up on Cool Arrow or Prat.Thanks for the heads up

Prat races at Churchill?
mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 5/3/2018 5:57:50 PM

1) I am a believbe's no Big Brown freak. In addition to being lightly raced, he's never been out of SoCal and, as someone else here pointed out, he has raced against no more than 6 horses. He also beat Bolt d'Or when Bolt came off a grueling San Felipe. BTW, Ruis going all out to win the San Felipe was asinine.  Just goes to show you why he's 3 for 61 lifetime.

 

  2) There are major reasons why foreign entries have a rough time in the Derby. According to drf. Com, “Since 1940, 45 horses have prepared for the Derby abroad, with two winners and one second place finisher. The two winners were Bold Forbes in 1976, who came to the race from Puerto Rico and Canonero II, who famously represented Venezuela with his win in 1971.” The best a Euro has done in the Derby is finish second in 1986 (Bold Arrangement) Refer to George Washington and Thunder Snow for Euro’s performing in the KY Derby.Now Mendelssohn is a great horse. He won by almost 19 in Dubai, but, as most of us know, Dubai in March is where most shipped in horses go to regress….with rare exception. We also know the front-end bias on that track is legendary, and it certainly was on the day Mendelssohn won.

 3) Few closers, certainly no Lookin At Lee or Commanding Curve here, with 7, 8 or maybe even 9 breaking for the lead with the potential of a blistering pace lead by Promises Fulfilled’s cheap speed and Justify out front. That scenario, in my mind, gives Vino Rosso, Good Magic, My Boy Jack and Solomini solid shots. Haven’t made my final selections, but I am leaning toward closers/stalkers.

,

mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 5/3/2018 6:08:58 PM

The Covers system knocked out part of my last post. It should read as follows:

1) I am a believer in the so-called Appolo's Curse. There is a reason why an unraced two-year old hasn't won the Derby since 1882. Justify is a great horse, but he's no Big Brown freak. In addition to being lightly race, Justify has never been out of SoCal and, as someone else here pointed out, he has raced against no more than 6 horses in any of his races. He also beat Bolt d'Oro when Bolt came off a grueling San Felipe. BTW, Ruis going all out to win the San Felipe was asinine. He is lucky the horse came out of it. After watching his Santa Anita Derby, I'm not sure he's fully right. Just goes to show you why owner Ruis is 3 for 61 lifetime. He's like a kid with a new IPhone rather than a serious owner-trainer.Magnum Moon's drifting and lugging is troublesome. I watched his ARK Derby today and he appeared to run about 2 miles in that race with all the drifting he did.

vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/3/2018 6:23:00 PM
Good to hear from you Mike.
Im with you as far as Justify and Mendelssohn,especially Mendelssohn.
Justify not use to being behind horses. Has not had any dirt kicked in his face.Needs a decent break I feel or else.
Will put $10 to win on him just in case. Dont wanna go home totally broke,right?
Good luck Mike
Tygermyke PM Tygermyke
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Posted: 5/3/2018 7:14:57 PM

Reading my mail, Mikey.  Hope all is good with the family.  I think this is a closers' race but I think My Boy Jack has puncher's chance-especially if it rains.  Looking forward to your analysis-especially since you mentioned my two longshot closers that both ran second (just a bit of self-indulgence there, ha-ha.) Any help in the Oaks will also be appreciated.

 

mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 5/3/2018 7:37:15 PM

Hi Guys....good to her from you. I agree with your comments. MBJ will definitely be in my unders, P&S and maybe a small winb wager.....I am going to post some interesting factoids in a few minutes.

Hope you are well....I had a pretty rough winter and just getting back into the swing of it.

vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 5/3/2018 8:15:13 PM
And in the "for what its worth column "
Flameaway has two wins in less then perfect conditions. 
One was rated sloppy in the $100,000 Skidmore and  the other, the Grade 3 Bourbon deemed muddy.

Also, an impressive Southwest win in the slop by My Boy Jack.
He won it by 41/2 lengths.
bobboonehater PM bobboonehater
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Posted: 5/3/2018 11:30:55 PM

Tyger I dont get ur comment it's a closers race but you boy jack has a chance,...that's what he is and he likes alop...we have no rain sat I'm less than 2 hrs away...should be good.good luck

Tygermyke PM Tygermyke
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Posted: 5/4/2018 11:10:03 AM
Sorry, Boonie-that was a bit confusing. Don't listen to drunk coonasses late at night. I like My Boy Jack because there is enough early speed to set up his late run. He was wide all the way in the La. Derby-must have run 2 miles- and still got third.  Just as Vet pointed out-he moves up if the track is sloppy. Personally, I hope the weather stays nice up there and that you have a great Derby.
Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 5/4/2018 11:15:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Midnight1:


Hey vet...Rushing Falls looks real tough in the 9th. Wheeling her in the doubles may be a decent play. I think #6 River Boyne could close for 2nd.

BTW..Flavien Prat is on a couple of live horses this weekend.

Look at that...Flavien Prat picks up a mount in the 2nd , wins & pays $13.. Geeeshhhh
jehvon09 PM jehvon09
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Posted: 5/4/2018 1:04:44 PM

Like Mendelssohn, apparently horse is a better dirt horse than turf horse, last years breeders cup the horse trained better on dirt than turf but connections decided to run turf and won easily.  Will love him even better if Rayya runs a good race in Oaks because he beat her by 18 lenghts

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