Posted: 12/7/2017 10:43:28 AM
Stat wise, UT Arlington is ranked #82 overall while UNI is ranked #86 overall. The best team UTA has beaten was BYU at 66, but after that, they beat Niagara (189), Loyola Marymount (234), North Texas (283), Western Carolina (282). Oh, they also beat a school called Texas Dallas?
The good thing for UTA is they start 5 seniors and they are on the court 33.2% of the time. When they run anotehr lineup, they swap the centers (Kabadyundi for Hamilton) and they are both seniors).
There are 9 seniors on UTA out of 14 guys, which means there is a TON of experience on this team. They plaeyd inthe NIT last year and got to the quarterfinal against CSU Bakersfield, where they lost by 4. This should be the year they make the dance.
For Northern Iowa, I saw something on Twitter. They are selling buy 1 get one free tickets for tonight, which may mean that the crowd is not at full capacity. Something stupid, but may not be the home court adv they are used to (similar to florida last night).
Northern Iowa has two lineups that they run out there (32.1% of the time - McCloud-Brown-Pickford-Carlson-Koch) (Sophomore-Sophomore-Freshman-Senior-Senior) and (26.2% of the time - McCloud, Haldeman, Pickford, Carlson, Koch).
As far as some stats:
UTA - 56.9% effective FG%, but they turn the ball over a lot, which is kind of surprising for a senior laden team. They are shooting 36.4% from 3, 58.5 from 2, which is top 20 in the nation, but they reare really bad at shooting FTs..only 70%. They do not get a lot of turnovers and they do not shoot that many 3's.
UNI - 50.8% effective FG%, but they also turn the ball over a lot, almost identical to UTA in turnovers. As far as shooting 35.5% from 3PT, this is worse than UTA, 49.2% from 2pt, this is worse than UTA by a lot, 71.7 from FT, they do not get a lot of turnovers and they are not taking a lot of 3's either.
UNI runs a REALLY REALLY slow game, one of the slowest in the nation. 348th to be exact. 64.1 possessions pe game, where as UTA is a little bit faster at 68th in the country and getting 72.4 possessions per game, which is 8 more possessions and could be the difference in the game. It will really depend on how quickly this game is played.
The stats, experience, and pace give me a lean towards UTA...but UNI is tough at home. If UTA's shots aren't dropping, UNI could win by 13 and it would feel like UTA was in quick sand, because UNI averages 20.2 seconds per possession, which is 3rd slowest in the nation, only behind GW and Jackson State out of the SWAC. They are playing a lot more like Virginia than the Northern Iowa teams we are used to.
By comparison, UTA is playing a lot more like Mississippi State, St. Johns, Gonzaga, Iowa State, Kentucky, as far as pace.
Prediction? UTA 60 UNI 66