YTD: 25-15 (62.5%)
0-1 last play, losing the Kentucky / Mississippi St 1st half under on 2/21
Lines are definitely tightening up as we head down the home stretch of the college basketball regular season.
Play: Weber St / Northern Colorado Over 147.5
There are many things to like about the over tonight that involves the highest and 3rd highest scoring teams in the Big Sky. Weber St currently averages 78.8 pts per game, 14th best in the nation, and is led by the second leading scorer in the country in Damian Lillard (24.5 ppg). He and his team should be able to continue their trend of high scoring affairs as they get to face the worst defensively efficient team in the conference, and one of the worst in the country (#323 nationally, 1.118 pt per possession allowed).
Northern Colorado has faced 8 teams this year that rank in the top 90 nationally with respect to adjusted offensive efficiency. These opponents have been able to take advantage of Northern Colorado’s porous defense to the clip of 86.5 points per game. Furthermore, every one of those teams scored 78+ points (with the exception of extremely slow paced Denver who had 71) – significant since Weber St sports an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked 55th and scores 1.086 points per possession.
There are many other factors to like about this game too that support an over. Both teams shoot the 3 extremely well (Weber St #24, N Col #1), and get to the free throw line frequently. Not only do they get to the charity stripe, they take full advantage when they get there (Weber St 80.8% - best in the country, N Col 70.1%).
Finally, their earlier match up this year should be a good indicator as to what we can expect tonight as Weber St won 93-81 in a 68 possession game (Over is 6-1 in L7 in this series). I expect tonight’s game to approach 70 possessions with the ingredients there to see Weber St score 80+.
And to be honest, I’m quite surprised that this total is not in the low 150’s (it has actually ticked down from an opener of 148.5). The only rationale I can see is that Weber St has a huge game on deck next week to decide the Big Sky regular season championship at Montana. But tonight, I still expect a focused effort from the Wildcats:
“We like challenges, a lot of people don’t think we’ll be able to go on the road and win two. Everything depends on these last two games, especially if we can win the game at Northern Colorado.” (Lillard in yesterday’s Salt Lake Tribune)
Good luck if you decide to make a play