8-6, -4.10
Leans: (6-10)
Day Notes: Puerto Rico Tip Off tournament is a pretty even field from start to finish and will be interesting to see how it plays out. The really weird thing is that if Purdue and WMU were to win their openers, they would play Friday, and then they’ll meet again the following week. This is a pretty big weekend for Iona. Outside of this tournament, Iona probably isn’t going to play a single team inside the top 100, and will have one of the worst SOS’s in the country by season’s end, so if they’re wanting to have some key wins, they’re going to need to play really good basketball. I think the line is pretty spot on. Purdue, the bigger school, with a few question marks against an experienced Iona squad who has played some big name schools rather close in recent years. I’ll enjoy watching this one. I need to see a bit more of Maryland and Turgeon before I make a play on them or against them. Alabama should be a tournament team this year, as they return the core of a somewhat successful season last year. I’m going to take a shot with Tulsa and Western Kentucky staying under the total. A few factors go into the under here in terms of value. One, Western Kentucky’s offense is putrid. In two home games, they’ve looked flat out lost, and have failed to put the ball in the hoop despite playing a better than average pace also noting the lack of offense they’re getting from the important positions needed in that offense. Two, Tulsa’s defense isn’t going to make it any easier for WKU to score. Wojcik is notorious for a style of defense that will stay in the lanes, very rarely get out of position, and force you to take a shot late in possessions. For nearly all of Wojcik’s reign as head coach, they’ve been near or at the bottom of all of college basketball in forcing turnovers. Generally, one would think that is a bad thing, but not all the time. They don’t take risks defensively like I had mentioned. Staying in the lanes, and defending the full 30-35 seconds of the shot clock is the motto. Stay in your lanes, and force a shot, give up nothing easy. That should make it an even tougher day for this WKU offense, as they have yet to play this style this year and they hit the road for the first time here as well. Tulsa’s offense is nothing spectacular either. They are replacing an important part of that offense in Hurtt, who accounted for 30% of the team’s shots a year ago. They should focus a bit more on the inside this year and more as a team which definitely helps an under here. I think defensively, WKU is going to have to go to some sort of zone. They don’t bring in a player taller than 6’5 and Tulsa will start two mammoth’s at 6’11”. Assuming they go zone, we should get a slower pace than usual in WKU ballgames. Aside from that, this will be the fourth straight year Tulsa has played in a tipoff tournament, and the closest one to home that they’ve played in that time frame. Another interesting note on the game is that Tulsa has a former member of the WKU basketball team in Magley, whom played for WKU for a full two seasons before the transfer. Having a better idea of how WKU operates both offensively and defensively gives another one-up to Tulsa in this matchup. LSU should struggle offensively yet again this year, and defensively, I’m not sure we see any improvement either, and it’s no easy task to defend Northwestern’s continuity style offense. I’m playing Seton Hall, and going to invest quite a bit in it. Watching the NCAA tournament last year and seeing how well VCU had played throughout, it was hard for me to not immediately lookahead to this year and circle all of their big games and write a big fat FADE next to it. This was a team that played well at times last year, but was not even the best team in the CAA. Simply put, they rode the three-ball the entire postseason and they got hot at the right time. They lost some big parts. The only returning starter is Burgess, and while he is a tremendous player, take away the core from last year’s team and I’m not sure he is a player that can take on the star role without any help (check out his 0-12 in game 1). This is a VCU team that has excelled defensively in previous seasons. That takes a huge hit this year I believe with some new faces, and it’d be hard not to believe that it takes a hit. They’ve been a top 100 defense the past few years with that core group that is now gone, and I think this is the first year in Shaka’s tenure that they aren’t that top 100 defense that they’re accustomed to being. Keep in mind, the success that this team has endured the past few seasons were done with Anthony Grant’s (he is now at Alabama) recruits. Shaka’s signed an 8 year contract extension, and my belief is the extension is that long b/c he’s going to need some time to bring in his own guys and rebuild. Don’t get me wrong, VCU in a rebuilding year with all of the exposure last year is still probably a top 5 or 6 team in the CAA, but the CAA is extremely down this year. This team loses four senior starters and hits the road against a Big East team in a neutral setting. Even with that core group last year to begin the season, this team struggled in settings away from home. They were 3-4 on the road last year with wins against Winthrop, Wake Forest, and UCLA (not a single top 50 squad in that list). Asking a new untested lineup to hit the road early should be a chore. As for Seton Hall, they’re in a pretty similar boat. They lost Hazell and a group of seniors, but moreso, they return Pope and Theodore, the two most important positions a team can return. Theodore is probably a score-first PG, and he’ll be surrounded by a few slashers with some size which I absolutely love going into a defense like VCU. PG can score, Pope can most certainly hold his own down low, and outside of that, Seton Hall will have options from the wing for some buckets. Coach Willard has always brought a sound defense to the table, even while at Iona a few years back. Believe it or not, this Seton Hall defense was the best defense in the Big East last year at season’s end, and while Hazell and Pope and a bevy of others missed time, that says a lot about “system” basketball. The only negative with Seton Hall I feel is going to be depth. I don’t really look at depth too much this early in the season, but it’s probably going to be a reason they’re in the bottom of the Big East by season’s end. Still, I feel they’re the better defensive team going into today’s matchup, and while I think VCU may have a slight advantage offensively, they should struggle to find rhythm this early in the season. Willard's defense wins this one.
3* Seton Hall +2
1* Tulsa/WKU Under 131.5
GL