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Genesis Picks

Forum: Pro Golf
Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: Genesis Picks
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 2/13/2018 8:57:02 PM

Phil Mickelson ov Justin Thomas


We make fun of Phil a lot, but I can’t ignore his last 2 finishes 5th, and 2nd.  Not to mention, this course sets up really good for his game.  Fairways are tough to hit, so he’s used to not being able to hit fairways, and scrambling around the greens is super important here, and that’s Phils specialty.  He’s got a couple of wins here, no missed cuts, and as good as Justin Thomas was to finish the year, he just hasn’t popped yet.  No top 10 finishes in 2018, he’s been good not great, and he doesn’t seem to play great here.  His three finishes here are 39th, 54th and 41st.  I also think Phils got just a little added motivation with Tiger being in the field this week.  


James Hahn ov Adam Scott


Adam Scott has been an atrocity on the golf course recently.  Missed cut and was terrible last week, doesn’t have a round under 70 since August.  His putting has really been the reason, he’s outside the top 200 in many categories.  We talked about him when he just had a baby, now he’s on the cover of a magazine as being the most fashionable guy on tour.  Great, he’s more worried about how he dresses, and not how he putts.  James Haha has been decent…played in 5 straight tournaments, made the cut in all of them, three top 30 finishes in those, and he’s won this tournament before, and 28th here last year.  This line opened at James Hahn +110.  It’s now Hahn +135.  


Adam Hadwin ov Shane Lowry


Bet against Shane Lowry last week and cashed a winner…Shane Lowry just isn’t sharp so far.  Missed cut, 65th and then 43rd in 2018, and he’s only played this tournament once.  It was last year and he WD.  Hadwin has played here three times, and did pretty good.  33th, 22nd and 16th.  So he’s got better tournament history than Lowry, and he’s finished better in both tournaments they’ve played in together this year.


Martin Kaymer ov Ryan Moore


Ryan Moore was awful at the Waste Management a couple weeks ago in his only 2018 tournament, and although he’s played here a lot, he missed the cut here last year.  This year is shaping up like a mirror image of last year.  Last year he finished 61st at the Waste Management.  This year he missed the cut.  In the 2016 reach around season last year, he made 3 straight cuts, and had 2 top 20 finishes.  Exact same thing happened this year.  Three made cuts, 2 top 20 finishes.  Last year he missed the cut here…I’m expecting something similar from him.  Kaymer solid as always, 19th at the Dubai Classic, 27th at the Abu Dhabi in his tournaments in 2018.

LeRinkRat PM LeRinkRat
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Posted: 2/14/2018 1:40:44 AM
already bopped James Hahn +135 over Adam Scott, Andy and I had NOT even looked at the thread yet

also gonna continue to ride Chez Reavie -110 over Marc Leishman this week. looking at Haotong Li +160 over Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Branden Grace -105 over Patrick Cantlay. OPINIONS ???
SkySky PM SkySky
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Posted: 2/14/2018 1:59:27 AM
Like them all. Solid analysis.
I also like Chez Reavie over Fleetwood this week.
RBTrojan PM RBTrojan
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Posted: 2/14/2018 5:45:06 AM

Really like the Hadwin play +110 fading Lowry this week. Also liking Howell III over JB as well. I noticed you stopped fading Bubba this week. Is it the matchup against or are you thinking he may have turned a corner? Not criticizing just curious. This is one of the best fields in LA I can remember in a very long time... I would have faded Tiger this week but -160 is just too steep with Perez. I liked the play quite a bit at -125 but my book didnt post a line until it was -160 already... Jimmy Walker finished well last week. He may be turning the corner and worth a look in weeks to come. Good luck this week

JamieR44 PM JamieR44
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Posted: 2/14/2018 9:32:30 AM

Like Hahn...nice find there.

Gonna fade Tiger *all* season. Perez for game, here.

Sticking with Spieth...I like him against a now-frustrated Rory...Spieth ended up bringing home the bacon for me last week after Rahm's fail. Jordan missed, what, a half-dozen short putts? Don't expect that trend to continue.

alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 2/14/2018 10:43:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RBTrojan:

Really like the Hadwin play +110 fading Lowry this week. Also liking Howell III over JB as well. I noticed you stopped fading Bubba this week. Is it the matchup against or are you thinking he may have turned a corner? Not criticizing just curious. This is one of the best fields in LA I can remember in a very long time... I would have faded Tiger this week but -160 is just too steep with Perez. I liked the play quite a bit at -125 but my book didnt post a line until it was -160 already... Jimmy Walker finished well last week. He may be turning the corner and worth a look in weeks to come. Good luck this week


I still want to fade Bubba, but I don't like the matchup.  Chappell hasn't ever cracked the top 20 here, and has missed the cut over 50% of the time he's played here.  This course is a little unique in some aspects with the tough fairways and greens to hit, so I looked at course history a bit more this week than usual.  Bubba withdrew from here last week, but before that on twice and had a 14th.  I just didn't like the matchup.
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 2/14/2018 10:47:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

already bopped James Hahn +135 over Adam Scott, Andy and I had NOT even looked at the thread yet

also gonna continue to ride Chez Reavie -110 over Marc Leishman this week. looking at Haotong Li +160 over Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Branden Grace -105 over Patrick Cantlay. OPINIONS ???

Hard to figure out what Cantlay could do here.  He hasn't played here in so long, and is a different golfer than he was back then.

Great odds with HaoTong, but I don't trust the guy.  He had the win but that was sandwiched with 2 missed cuts.  

Reavie ov Leishman is interesting.  Both not great tournament history here...Reavie playing better currently though.  Tossup.
alangrrbs PM alangrrbs
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Posted: 2/14/2018 10:52:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JamieR44:

Like Hahn...nice find there.

Gonna fade Tiger *all* season. Perez for game, here.

Sticking with Spieth...I like him against a now-frustrated Rory...Spieth ended up bringing home the bacon for me last week after Rahm's fail. Jordan missed, what, a half-dozen short putts? Don't expect that trend to continue.


Spieth is an enigma right now.  Missing short ones...draining long ones.  I still don't know what to make of him. 
wogdog PM wogdog
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Posted: 2/14/2018 6:10:39 PM

Goodluck Andy  clover

LeRinkRat PM LeRinkRat
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Posted: 2/14/2018 11:05:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

already bopped James Hahn +135 over Adam Scott, Andy and I had NOT even looked at the thread yet

also gonna continue to ride Chez Reavie -110 over Marc Leishman this week. looking at Haotong Li +160 over Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Branden Grace -105 over Patrick Cantlay. OPINIONS ???


"tack on" Phil Mickelson +110 over Paul Casey. hard to ignore Phil tied 2nd last week [-14] and tied 5th @ Phoenix [-14]. Casey playing well too his past 5 tourneys but best tied 8th last week [-10] 4 shots behind Phil
JamieR44 PM JamieR44
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Posted: 2/15/2018 8:47:42 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

QUOTE Originally Posted by LeRinkRat: already bopped James Hahn +135 over Adam Scott, Andy and I had NOT even looked at the thread yet also gonna continue to ride Chez Reavie -110 over Marc Leishman this week. looking at Haotong Li +160 over Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Branden Grace -105 over Patrick Cantlay. OPINIONS ??? "tack on" Phil Mickelson +110 over Paul Casey. hard to ignore Phil tied 2nd last week [-14] and tied 5th @ Phoenix [-14]. Casey playing well too his past 5 tourneys but best tied 8th last week [-10] 4 shots behind Phil

Like the rest of America, I, too, love Phil...but this streak has got to come to an end...He is playing out of shoes...I'm taking Casey in this match-up.

icebergza PM icebergza
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Posted: 2/15/2018 10:01:57 AM

I just hit the Hahn over Scott as well. I also like Fleetwood today vs Phil. Pebble set up well for Phil, four par 5's, 6900 yards, open fairways. This course is playing long and greens are super fast. Not as great of week for Phil this week. 
LeRinkRat PM LeRinkRat
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Posted: 2/17/2018 9:06:59 PM
CRAZY tourney going into Sunday. Bubba Watson with the LEAD @ [-10] ??? "whoed a thunk it". Patrick Cantlay solo 2nd [-9] and four back at [-8] including my Aussie Cammy Smith who shoots [-6] Saturday as did Bubba. look out for Dustin Johnson at [-6] as he shot a [-7] to recover from a horrid 1st round

my Euros really NOT playing well this week. Rory [even]."Salt" Pieters [even] Tommy Fleetwood [+1] and Kaymer [+2] with "The Mole" [+4], "Fat Baztard" Lowry [+6] both CUTS

AND WHAT in the WORLD happened to Chez Reavie ??? after an opening [-3] he shoots [+5] Friday and [+6] for tourney [+8]. MUST have injured himself and just playing for a "bottom feeder" check after "squeeking" the cut
JBender PM JBender
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Posted: 2/17/2018 10:20:50 PM
DJ +500?  

Doesn't seem worth it
LeRinkRat PM LeRinkRat
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Posted: 2/17/2018 11:25:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JBender:

DJ +500?  

Doesn't seem worth it


Westgate has Dustin Johnson 7-1. "Magilla Gorilla" CAN shoot "wicked low" when he gets it goaing and just coming off a [-7] round. Justin Thomas same thing. also 4 behind Watson and shot [-4] Saturday. he is 12-1
LeRinkRat PM LeRinkRat
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Posted: 2/18/2018 9:55:36 PM
Cheese LOU-ese!!! damn Bubba Watson "backs into" the WIN with a final round [-2] for tourney [-12]. lucky baztard holed out a sand shot on the par 3 #14 for a birdie two ti set up the win. NO one really challenged the final round.

I ended up with a "splitski" my match plays which is an improvement on my usual performance. WIN with "The Mick", Hahn and Reavie (thank god  Leishman was a CUT) LOSE with "X", Li and "Dis"-Grace.

on to Florida next week for the Honda Classic. last years winner "Rickie Tickie" Fowler [-12] four shots over Morgan Hoffmann and Gary Woodland [-8]. six tied for 4th [-7] including Euro players Tyrrell Hatton and Martin Kaymer along with big hitter Jhonattan Vegas
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