For each year, I take EVERY golfer for EVERY round that they play and plot their finish position v different parameters. (in this example, I choose PA (the highest correlation) and DA (the lowest correlation).
I've normalized both axis from 0-1 to make it work that the SLOPE of the best fit line through the data is going to be between 0 and 1. The SLOPE is exactly the MATHMATICAL CORRELATION, between finish position and whatever parameter is used as the X in that particular plot.
For each year, I take EVERY golfer for EVERY round that they play and plot their finish position v different parameters. (in this example, I choose PA (the highest correlation) and DA (the lowest correlation).
I've normalized both axis from 0-1 to make it work that the SLOPE of the best fit line through the data is going to be between 0 and 1. The SLOPE is exactly the MATHMATICAL CORRELATION, between finish position and whatever parameter is used as the X in that particular plot.
Blairaj - I had to chime in, been following this forum for a few months and appreciate your view point.
In my handicapping of sports I go almost strictly by the numbers in some sports I even think its a disavantage to watch, as you learn an inherent bias. You see a player or team on one particular day and thats how you view them. If I went by "gut feel" I would probably be broke, using only the numbers or models, I have been very successful. Disclosure I use tour tips data base for golf to create my numbers. By the way what is PB and BA ?
Blairaj - I had to chime in, been following this forum for a few months and appreciate your view point.
In my handicapping of sports I go almost strictly by the numbers in some sports I even think its a disavantage to watch, as you learn an inherent bias. You see a player or team on one particular day and thats how you view them. If I went by "gut feel" I would probably be broke, using only the numbers or models, I have been very successful. Disclosure I use tour tips data base for golf to create my numbers. By the way what is PB and BA ?
There you go again Texas stirring up the natives...
I all in favor of the math the charts don't lie but I've played Firestone and you better not hit all over the lot unless your putter has eyes because it hard to hold it close
There you go again Texas stirring up the natives...
I all in favor of the math the charts don't lie but I've played Firestone and you better not hit all over the lot unless your putter has eyes because it hard to hold it close
Blairaj- How huge is PB this week in the Reno with the Stableford system in place ? I am wondering how far to adjust for this. My modeling usually spits out plays similar to MrBogey and then you, every once in awhile you both throw out a curve ball that is the opposite of me.
Blairaj- How huge is PB this week in the Reno with the Stableford system in place ? I am wondering how far to adjust for this. My modeling usually spits out plays similar to MrBogey and then you, every once in awhile you both throw out a curve ball that is the opposite of me.
blairaj - Those are nice charts and I'm sure they work for you. We are all entitled to our opinion. Your opinion is that your stats from the last 2 years, do not agree with AJ's 'analysis' of this tournament. Good there we go got that outta the way.
And while we are here just so you know, FACTS from the last 2 years are not dependable whatsoever. So you telling AJ that he's wrong is actually wrong because you are going off a 2 year span. THE FACT is DA has not mattered in the last 2 years. That would be THE FACT. Correct?? So not every year just 2 years.. Your going off 2 years.. It can barely constitute as a trend.. So what you've got is a 2 year trend not a fact. There's some philosophy for ya.
Start your own thread instead of highjacking and chatting to randoms on AJ's..
blairaj - Those are nice charts and I'm sure they work for you. We are all entitled to our opinion. Your opinion is that your stats from the last 2 years, do not agree with AJ's 'analysis' of this tournament. Good there we go got that outta the way.
And while we are here just so you know, FACTS from the last 2 years are not dependable whatsoever. So you telling AJ that he's wrong is actually wrong because you are going off a 2 year span. THE FACT is DA has not mattered in the last 2 years. That would be THE FACT. Correct?? So not every year just 2 years.. Your going off 2 years.. It can barely constitute as a trend.. So what you've got is a 2 year trend not a fact. There's some philosophy for ya.
Start your own thread instead of highjacking and chatting to randoms on AJ's..
Blair...look man, I just did some quick research, with no data analysis, and wrote up the opening post. My opinion, general information that's all. You can't ignore the need for accuracy though. It's right in their face on almost every tee. Not to mention the dog leg's and narrow fairways.
Blair...look man, I just did some quick research, with no data analysis, and wrote up the opening post. My opinion, general information that's all. You can't ignore the need for accuracy though. It's right in their face on almost every tee. Not to mention the dog leg's and narrow fairways.
Again AJ, I'm only trying to be helpful. I knew full well tthat any analysis you did was quick and subjective, and all I was trying to do was share with you the fact that I had done a much more rigorous analysis, that the analysis that I did was rather extensive, and that you might want to reprioritize the order and weighting in which you're looking at the stats this week. You can take it or leave it, frankly I could give a shit less. If your thread, or this forum in general, just wants to be about handshaking, hi-fiving, and cocksucking - well then I'd hope for a lot more than that. I'd like to think people are intelligent enough to have a conversation and bring some insight into golf betting that helps everybody win that is more than what's readilly accessible on pgatour.com, or any site for that matter.
Again AJ, I'm only trying to be helpful. I knew full well tthat any analysis you did was quick and subjective, and all I was trying to do was share with you the fact that I had done a much more rigorous analysis, that the analysis that I did was rather extensive, and that you might want to reprioritize the order and weighting in which you're looking at the stats this week. You can take it or leave it, frankly I could give a shit less. If your thread, or this forum in general, just wants to be about handshaking, hi-fiving, and cocksucking - well then I'd hope for a lot more than that. I'd like to think people are intelligent enough to have a conversation and bring some insight into golf betting that helps everybody win that is more than what's readilly accessible on pgatour.com, or any site for that matter.
Wow did he honestly just create an alias to make it look like someone cares?
That's sad mannnnnnnnnnnn............ blair you've got issues. Good luck with your charts and what you've got is a 2 year trend not the fucking answer to life..
Wow did he honestly just create an alias to make it look like someone cares?
That's sad mannnnnnnnnnnn............ blair you've got issues. Good luck with your charts and what you've got is a 2 year trend not the fucking answer to life..
Yeah, I guess the answer to life is in the stars - good luck with that - I'll stick with the same math and science that's used to: get you to work safely, fly you on vacation, design the computer you're typing on, etc., etc., etc.
And, if you think I created that alias, you're sorely overestimating how much I give a rats ass what anyone on here thinks.
Yeah, I guess the answer to life is in the stars - good luck with that - I'll stick with the same math and science that's used to: get you to work safely, fly you on vacation, design the computer you're typing on, etc., etc., etc.
And, if you think I created that alias, you're sorely overestimating how much I give a rats ass what anyone on here thinks.
Yeah, I guess the answer to life is in the stars - good luck with that - I'll stick with the same math and science that's used to: get you to work safely, fly you on vacation, design the computer you're typing on, etc., etc., etc.
And, if you think I created that alias, you're sorely overestimating how much I give a rats ass what anyone on here thinks.
Well actually mine is science as well not stars.. Even tho stars and space are part of science
Mine is a biology. It's working out great too I won with Els on the Open and had 4 guys in the top 10 last weekend including Garrigus.
Oh by the way 'lloyd32' said he has been following you for a couple of months.. Weird cuz 'lloyd32' was created in July 2012 and has 1 post.. Eerily similar to your posts.. Guess you didn't think that one through did ya? Not too smart for a self proclaimed mathematician...
Anyways I'm done bantering sorry AJ GL this week lookin forward to your plays.
Yeah, I guess the answer to life is in the stars - good luck with that - I'll stick with the same math and science that's used to: get you to work safely, fly you on vacation, design the computer you're typing on, etc., etc., etc.
And, if you think I created that alias, you're sorely overestimating how much I give a rats ass what anyone on here thinks.
Well actually mine is science as well not stars.. Even tho stars and space are part of science
Mine is a biology. It's working out great too I won with Els on the Open and had 4 guys in the top 10 last weekend including Garrigus.
Oh by the way 'lloyd32' said he has been following you for a couple of months.. Weird cuz 'lloyd32' was created in July 2012 and has 1 post.. Eerily similar to your posts.. Guess you didn't think that one through did ya? Not too smart for a self proclaimed mathematician...
Anyways I'm done bantering sorry AJ GL this week lookin forward to your plays.
No alias brother - I am trying to help educate. I have been at this for a long time and usually never ever post in forums I figure what good can it do from a selfish point of view. I have seen small markets like golf dry up once too many people started beating the books. When I saw this guy trying to help out and then get bashed I couldn't resist. His analysis is right along the same line that I have used in other sports. Nascar is the same as golf you do a regression on how important qualifying, practice, track and current form are. I started modeling golf just this year.
Honestly this biorythm stuff seems like hocus pocus to me. But alot of golf is played between the ears so maybe you are on to something. I don't have access to this type of info so I have never tested it. I noticed that you have support from others in this forum so you must be doing well. Everyone gets to thier plays in a different manner. At the end of the day each of us know where are BR stands.
No alias brother - I am trying to help educate. I have been at this for a long time and usually never ever post in forums I figure what good can it do from a selfish point of view. I have seen small markets like golf dry up once too many people started beating the books. When I saw this guy trying to help out and then get bashed I couldn't resist. His analysis is right along the same line that I have used in other sports. Nascar is the same as golf you do a regression on how important qualifying, practice, track and current form are. I started modeling golf just this year.
Honestly this biorythm stuff seems like hocus pocus to me. But alot of golf is played between the ears so maybe you are on to something. I don't have access to this type of info so I have never tested it. I noticed that you have support from others in this forum so you must be doing well. Everyone gets to thier plays in a different manner. At the end of the day each of us know where are BR stands.
Looks Like I should have kept my mouth shut. Must be some kind of fraternity in here, others not welcome. I made the account 2 minutes before I posted, you don't need an account to read posts. Why would you scare away some one who was giving you free rice bowls that probably took hours to compute. The more information the better, most people on here throw out plays with no reasoning, what good is that. I wonder how they come up with their plays: "this guy is due, or I saw him on TV last week and he looked good". You have to have some kind of system, there is a reason why 90% of people lose long term. Bash all you want - but stop and think how you come up with your plays if you don't know exactly why you are probably a losing player.
Looks Like I should have kept my mouth shut. Must be some kind of fraternity in here, others not welcome. I made the account 2 minutes before I posted, you don't need an account to read posts. Why would you scare away some one who was giving you free rice bowls that probably took hours to compute. The more information the better, most people on here throw out plays with no reasoning, what good is that. I wonder how they come up with their plays: "this guy is due, or I saw him on TV last week and he looked good". You have to have some kind of system, there is a reason why 90% of people lose long term. Bash all you want - but stop and think how you come up with your plays if you don't know exactly why you are probably a losing player.
I like piercy over toms and my book has him at -150 also F. Molinari -130 over Oosthuizen but it seems to me oosth is very sporadic and could be a coin toss
I like piercy over toms and my book has him at -150 also F. Molinari -130 over Oosthuizen but it seems to me oosth is very sporadic and could be a coin toss
Without having done any of my homework yet, I also like Molinari out of that bunch, that line seems to be climbing.
It looks like everybody and their brother must be on the "fade Phil" train. If I'm remembering right, I looked at pinny earlier this morning and they had BVP in the -140's and now he's at -214
I wish to hell I could get lines before all that crazy movement happens.
Without having done any of my homework yet, I also like Molinari out of that bunch, that line seems to be climbing.
It looks like everybody and their brother must be on the "fade Phil" train. If I'm remembering right, I looked at pinny earlier this morning and they had BVP in the -140's and now he's at -214
I wish to hell I could get lines before all that crazy movement happens.
BVP has had huge line movement each week, ever since he won the event in Asia. I made a post a few months ago about it. I am thinking some Asian group may be blindly betting him heavy each week, along with regular bettors.
Watney or no play for me AJ, course form vs no course experience?
Schwarzel and Gmac have not done much of anything on this course either. May be worth a second look on those.
BVP has had huge line movement each week, ever since he won the event in Asia. I made a post a few months ago about it. I am thinking some Asian group may be blindly betting him heavy each week, along with regular bettors.
Watney or no play for me AJ, course form vs no course experience?
Schwarzel and Gmac have not done much of anything on this course either. May be worth a second look on those.
Mahan is 8-2-2 in the last 3 years' 12 rounds at Bridgestone against DJ. I'm struggling to find other reasons to play Mahan, but that alone would be enough for me not to take DJ.
Mahan is 8-2-2 in the last 3 years' 12 rounds at Bridgestone against DJ. I'm struggling to find other reasons to play Mahan, but that alone would be enough for me not to take DJ.
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