Posted: 3/14/2019 1:40:45 PM
late start today, didnt have time to post earlier nor update ystdays thread. typical delays in getting this up. ended up on the '+'side a little thanks to the UCL and Libert. being a wash.
UEL: going to start with the Serie A clubs first, but this is a tricky card and not really thrilled with it.
because of the situation in it being the 2nd leg and eventually ONE team in every match will end up needing to toss out the playbook and throw the kitchen sink forward late leaving gaping holes in their defense; decided to take a peek at previous years and theres been at least 2 goals in 30 of the past 40 2nd legs in this round. so, purely on 1st legs results and nothing more, will take the 1.5 parlay (i love these things. laughing) with matches for these home teams: slavia, arsenal, krasnador, salzburg, kiev
over 1.5 @+189 (and going to plunk a little more on that)
Salzburg/Napoli - kind of starting to like the prices I got with Napoli to win this thing; booted from CL, Scudetto is officially done, Coppa too and ... most importantly.... theyve ALREADY qualified for next years CL; 10 pts clear from Roma might seem "borderline" but of their remaining 11 matches, just 3 of them are vs clubs in the top half of Serie A. Napoli is the superior team here, clearly. but Ancellotti is "old school" in regards to his approach; and with a 3-0 advantage he will most likely do the routine "try-to-get-the-goal-in-first-20-minutes-and-if-that-doesnt-work-then-fall-back-and-protect". but he is not going to push forward in numbers; not when your best defender and rock of your backline is suspended - Koulibaly. Salzburg are no pushovers and if you watched the 1st leg they actually created quite a few chances. problem for them is theyre missing a few important midfielders. kind of like the prices im seeing with the Austrians here as theres a lot of wiggle room with a 3 goal advantage. Mertens & Millik are simply on another level than what the Austrians are used to seeing so hoping they can bang one in and put this thing out of reach early. but Carlos will make that substitution at around the hour mark, put in a holding midfielder/defender, and "kill" the game.
Salzburg to win @+154, Salzburg/Napoli over 3 @+102
Inter/Frankfurt - 0-0 1st leg result. i dont believe a d*mn thing thats coming out of Spalettis mouth this week saying their goals are to advance. typical Spalletti in saying one thing but doing another. Inter in a major dogfight for that cherished 4th and final UCL auto-slot next year; and trust me, this 'trumps' UEL over there. Inter missing a boatload of KEY players for this one (incuding 3/4 of their offense). Icardi still dealing with his "fake" injury and butthurt from being stripped of captaincy; Lautaro out, Nainn, Miranda, Mario, & Gagliardini ALL out as well. Frankfurt the lone German rep remaining in Europe, but I dont know anything about their motivation as they are in the SAME situation as Inter fighting for their 4th slot next year also.
One 'strange' thing regarding the lines:: Inter go off as the 'to win' 'favorites' hanging around the 120's; yet... its Frankfurt whom are juiced to advance???
and thats exactly what i was leaning towards to start with.
Frankfurt to advance @-115 (and I think they might do this via low-scoring draw)
am i the only one sitting here wondering WHY Arsenal is BELOW 400s to win? (not 'to qualify'). kind of felt that should be in the 600s. strange.