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Thursday plays...... (UEL, Lib)

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: Thursday plays...... (UEL, Lib)
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 3/14/2019 1:37:32 PM
back in a min. 
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 3/14/2019 1:40:45 PM
late start today, didnt have time to post earlier nor update ystdays thread. typical delays in getting this up.  ended up on the '+'side a little thanks to the UCL and Libert. being a wash. 

UEL: going to start with the Serie A clubs first, but this is a tricky card and not really thrilled with it. 

because of the situation in it being the 2nd leg and eventually ONE team in every match will end up needing to toss out the playbook and throw the kitchen sink forward late leaving gaping holes in their defense; decided to take a peek at previous years and theres been at least 2 goals in 30 of the past 40 2nd legs in this round. so, purely on 1st legs results and nothing more, will take the 1.5 parlay (i love these things.  laughing) with matches for these home teams: slavia, arsenal, krasnador, salzburg, kiev
over 1.5 @+189 (and going to plunk a little more on that)

Salzburg/Napoli - kind of starting to like the prices I got with Napoli to win this thing; booted from CL, Scudetto is officially done, Coppa too and ... most importantly.... theyve ALREADY qualified for next years CL;  10 pts clear from Roma might seem "borderline" but of their remaining 11 matches, just 3 of them are vs clubs in the top half of Serie A. Napoli is the superior team here, clearly. but Ancellotti is "old school" in regards to his approach; and with a 3-0 advantage he will most likely do the routine "try-to-get-the-goal-in-first-20-minutes-and-if-that-doesnt-work-then-fall-back-and-protect". but he is not going to push forward in numbers; not when your best defender and rock of your backline is suspended - Koulibaly. Salzburg are no pushovers and if you watched the 1st leg they actually created quite a few chances. problem for them is theyre missing a few important midfielders. kind of like the prices im seeing with the Austrians here as theres a lot of wiggle room with a 3 goal advantage. Mertens & Millik are simply on another level than what the Austrians are used to seeing so hoping they can bang one in and put this thing out of reach early. but Carlos will make that substitution at around the hour mark, put in a holding midfielder/defender, and "kill" the game.
Salzburg to win @+154, Salzburg/Napoli over 3 @+102

Inter/Frankfurt - 0-0 1st leg result. i dont believe a d*mn thing thats coming out of Spalettis mouth this week saying their goals are to advance. typical Spalletti in saying one thing but doing another. Inter in a major dogfight for that cherished 4th and final UCL auto-slot next year; and trust me, this 'trumps' UEL over there.  Inter missing a boatload of KEY players for this one (incuding 3/4 of their offense). Icardi still dealing with his "fake" injury and butthurt from being stripped of captaincy; Lautaro out, Nainn, Miranda, Mario, & Gagliardini ALL out as well. Frankfurt the lone German rep remaining in Europe, but I dont know anything about their motivation as they are in the SAME situation as Inter fighting for their 4th slot next year also.
One 'strange' thing regarding the lines:: Inter go off as the 'to win' 'favorites' hanging around the 120's; yet... its Frankfurt whom are juiced to advance???  
and thats exactly what i was leaning towards to start with.
Frankfurt to advance @-115 (and I think they might do this via low-scoring draw)

am i the only one sitting here wondering WHY Arsenal is BELOW 400s to win? (not 'to qualify'). kind of felt that should be in the 600s.   strange. 
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 3/14/2019 1:42:55 PM
Copa Lib: really like these matchups
Penarol(Uru)/San Jose(Bol) - once bolivian clubs come down from that 'perch' on the mountaintops, it 'levels' the playing field so to speak. and the skill set between opponents are exposed; bad things tend to happen. 
Penarol + over 2.5 @-138, Penarol TT over 2.5 @evens

Paranaense(Bra)/Wilstermann(Bol) - ditto above. though Wilster in previous years had been slightly better off the mountaintop; even played Boca to a scoreless draw last round. which probably works against them as now they have the Brazilians attention.  they reverted back to Bolivian standards last year getting destroyed by 'big-boy' clubs 4-0 & 8-0 on road and expecting a similar thing here. 
Paranaense/Wilster over 2.5 @-130

Emelec(Ecu)/Huracan(Arg) - watched part of Emelecs postponed match vs a weak Venezuelan club last week and wasnt very impressed. sure, it was in afternoon and in the heat but then again, Ecuador is on equator so theyre used to it. and though they have had a pretty good winning % at home in Conmebol, they havent beaten any of the clubs from Gaucho-Samba land in past 4 years (6 matches). Huracan having their own troubles as well but simply feel the quality between the leagues will show up tonight and think theyre good enough to come away with a point. 
Huracan +1/2 @ evens, and lets toss a little on the outright @+350

GL to all  
WCI PM WCI
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Posted: 3/14/2019 10:22:37 PM
Phenomenal day my friend. Keep up the great work! 
WCI PM WCI
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Posted: 3/14/2019 10:24:16 PM
Also, do you accept friend requests and DMs? I’ve been waiting patiently 
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 3/15/2019 2:00:28 PM
"robot" thing keeps hanging on me. decided to come in here and reply. 

WCI , yeah was a pretty decent day ystday ehh?  that napoli match went pretty much exactly as thought as they scored first. wasnt even aware of that stuff for this site; not that it would matter; too many other issues just getting in here. anyways...

slavia, arsenal, krasnador, salzburg, kiev
over 1.5 @+189 (and going to plunk a little more on that) (W)
Salzburg to win @+154, Salzburg/Napoli over 3 @+102 (W, W)
Frankfurt to advance @-115 (W)
Penarol + over 2.5 @-138, Penarol TT over 2.5 @evens (W, W)
Paranaense/Wilster over 2.5 @-130 (W)
Huracan +1/2 @ evens, and lets toss a little on the outright @+350 (W, L)

an interesting UCL/UEL drawing. might post my initial 1st thoughts on those. based on styles and MO's just kind of happy to have avoided Barca and the big boys in the EPL. but by no means do I think this is going to be a cakewalk.

get tonights card up shortly. 
Flinnja PM Flinnja
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Posted: 3/15/2019 2:23:42 PM
Great moments in gambling history:  I accidentally bet on Penarol basketball (was excited to get +1 LOL)!  Bought out of it asap after they went up 4-0 (at that point it was Penarol -1).  Game ended up with Penarol losing by 1 so I actually made money on the idiotic play.

(Boy was I excited to get Penarol +1 - thought my book had f'd up!)

Nice work on your picks, always appreciate them.
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