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CIRCUS BETTOR's CL PICKS

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: CIRCUS BETTOR's CL PICKS
Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/18/2019 11:57:46 PM

9-3 CL/EUROPA

6-4-1 last two days. Mediocre yesterday:

Olsen (Roma keeper)  stopped at least 3 blasts late (lost count) to preserve the win for Roma. 0-0 1st H killed the over. Dortmund has lost form and identity. The new 19 yr old  striker isn't fitting in, and Dort runs out of energy late in games. FADE.

UPSET SPECIAL (Pool is favored, but they have a tall order)

LIVERPOOL ML +113

Bayern is unbeaten in this season's CL, and they have not lost in 8 away matches. Lewandoski is unstoppable, and could score today in the 5th straight game.Bayern has scored 8 goals from set pieces, five from corners. They do not mess around when they gain a corner. They are EFFICIENT. So it would make sense to play the OVER 2,5 -120....It could be yet another 0-0 1st H, and a barrage of late goals. 

I feel the upper echelon EPL teams at home are going to be very difficult to beat. Jurgen Klopp is familiar with Bayern, as he was a former manager at Dortmund. I feel Pool is as good as Man City, and right now, Bayern is a notch below their best form, and this is a must win for Liverpool at home, and they must give Bayern it's first loss today. 

I think we'll see a 2-1 win with an excruciatingly tight finish. 

 

Barcelona -127

Lyon will be schooled by Barcelona if they are firing on all cylinders. Spanish teams receive enormous bonuses for CL wins, advancements, goals, etc., and they are a machine. ROUT. 4-1. 

Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 12:15:22 AM

ASIA CL:

 

Kashima (Japan) v Newcastle (aus) UNDER 2,5

Looks unpredictable and high scoring, but outside of their leagues, looks like the favorite (Kashima) will dictate pace, and with an early expected lead of 1-0, will hang on, perhaps add an insurance goal. 

Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 12:21:32 AM

AL GHARAFA v ZOB AHAN

AL GHARAFA +145

Have to side with the home side vs a bitter cultural rival. Like the Euro-minded coach and the more global looking lineup of the Qatari side (with a few Brazilian, Portuguese other nationalities), as opposed to the pure Iranian side who is ranked below mid level and a year ago did not win an away game in this competition. Enough to like and throw a few Sheckles at.

Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 12:11:33 PM

Got my arse handed to me in the "Exhibition" Asia CL, lots of high scoring matches.

Adding:

Liverpool-Bay Muenchen Over 2,5

I like Pool to score first, answer with a second, then have Bayern answer from a set piece. If Pool does not score again, then Lewandowski could answer to draw even--a major "victory" for Bayern. 

I like Pool to hang on, but the accuracy from set pieces if phenomenal, and the pressure Lewandowski puts on the defence is extraordinary. Both teams have an attacking style, and NO REASON it will not be on display. I sense no "nerviness" from other side, or undo pressure.

 

Barcelona -130

Liverpool +113

Over 2,5 -114 Pool-Bayern

Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 1:00:15 PM

Lineups are soon out.

 

Lionel Messi, who has been MANAGED very well (similar to the succesful controlled minutes programme used for Ronaldo), is set play today. Dembele also.

Fekir is the attacking midfielder so important for Lyon's success. HE IS OUT due to red card suspension. HUGE BLOW ! 

Barca early and often.

Barcelona 1st H +133

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/19/2019 2:08:02 PM
GL today Circus     with ya on that over in Anfield, but dont know what to expect.  this is a match for a neutral to enjoy tho.    opposite side with Lyon, tho i have to admit fading messi isnt a comfortable thought. that suspension might push lyon even further back.

the only thing i disagree on is that bonus incentive thing.  nobody is motivated by money at this juncture. (well, at least not the 22 humans on the field   club ownership perhaps.  boatload of $$ for advancing)
Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 6:02:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by specimen24:

GL today Circus     with ya on that over in Anfield, but dont know what to expect.  this is a match for a neutral to enjoy tho.    opposite side with Lyon, tho i have to admit fading messi isnt a comfortable thought. that suspension might push lyon even further back.the only thing i disagree on is that bonus incentive thing.  nobody is motivated by money at this juncture. (well, at least not the 22 humans on the field   club ownership perhaps.  boatload of $$ for advancing)

 

Totally unexpected results for me. OK, maybe I could anticipate Lyon being held scoreless. 

After the half, Barca never attempted a centering pass. They tried "muscling through" defenders who were kicking the ball away. Odd behaviour for one of the greatest passing teams.

And the scoreless affair in Anfield was a thud. 

No sense. 

new_anvil

LooseNotLose PM LooseNotLose
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Posted: 2/19/2019 6:25:36 PM
If you look at Barcelona's recent results, and Lyon's play in CL and the tougher teams in Ligue 1, it's an entirely unsurprising result.
Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 6:56:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LooseNotLose:

If you look at Barcelona's recent results, and Lyon's play in CL and the tougher teams in Ligue 1, it's an entirely unsurprising result.

In retrospect, yes.

 

I get the feeling though (correct me if I'm wrong, as I am wrong about 45% of the time...) that the books made an ABSOLUTE KILLING with a pair of 0-0 results. 

The odds of that are so infinetesmal. 0-0 at the half has been the NORM for just about EVERY CL match to date. Yet Barca simply gave up their attack. Went from 14 SOG, to single digits--none memorable or threatening.

Lyon was aiming for that result. It is what they wanted, and they got it.

LooseNotLose PM LooseNotLose
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Posted: 2/19/2019 8:15:12 PM
I should say I am a bit surprised by the fact that Barça didn't score, but I thought Lyon would get one at home too.  In retrospect, it's a pretty typical road result for Barcelona over the last three years.

In 8 out of the last 11, and 10 of the last 15 away Champions League games, Barcelona has dropped points:

  • 3 wins 5 draws, 3 losses in last 11
  • 5-5-5 last 15. (2016-Present).  
  • They've scored just 14 goals in those 15 games
  • scored 0 or 1 goal in 10 of those games
  • shut out seven times. 

I don't agree that Lyon was aiming for a 0-0 draw - I watched that game and it was end to end for the first 75 minutes.  Obviously Barça out-possessed them, but Barça out possesses literally every body.

As it got closer to time, I'd agree that Lyon was going to be very happy with not giving up an away goal - even though possession was just about even for the first half, Lyon had to chase much more in the 2nd and got tired.
Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 8:49:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LooseNotLose:

I should say I am a bit surprised by the fact that Barça didn't score, but I thought Lyon would get one at home too.  In retrospect, it's a pretty typical road result for Barcelona over the last three years.In 8 out of the last 11, and 10 of the last 15 away Champions League games, Barcelona has dropped points:3 wins 5 draws, 3 losses in last 115-5-5 last 15. (2016-Present).  They've scored just 14 goals in those 15 gamesscored 0 or 1 goal in 10 of those gamesshut out seven times. I don't agree that Lyon was aiming for a 0-0 draw - I watched that game and it was end to end for the first 75 minutes.  Obviously Barça out-possessed them, but Barça out possesses literally every body.As it got closer to time, I'd agree that Lyon was going to be very happy with not giving up an away goal - even though possession was just about even for the first half, Lyon had to chase much more in the 2nd and got tired.

 

Great analysis, man! I do now Barca has not been in the semis since 2015 (?) and are yet always favored to do well, but as you pointed out statistically, they UNDERPERFORM. 

Barca must be an "Insta-FADE" until we see signs of life offensively. 

Circus_Bettor PM Circus_Bettor
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Posted: 2/19/2019 9:00:17 PM

Needless to say, I was HUMBLED by today's results. 

I'm putting any vanity I had left and checking at the door.

On to tomorrow...

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/20/2019 3:24:39 AM
just feel that this is one of those matches where Barcas style hurted them; that little "policy" of theirs where attempts outside the box arent allowed (the exception being Messi). sometimes it's OK to just let one fly from 25m, if anything it makes the defender think twice.  your first paragraph xplained their MO to a 'T'. 
i cant see Lyon being too thrilled with todays result. they can hang their hat on the away goal in return leg but Lyon turned it over far too much in their own end and fortunate they werent hammered. but like Loose  mentioned, agree it doesnt suprise me either, Barcas MO never was to win on road.  
the other game... what was learned? #1:  Pool is in deep sh*t in a few weeks and #2: Munich is in deep sh*t in a few weeks. 
 nice tactical strategy by the Germans laying off the ball, Pool thrives on aggressive defenses and force you to commit. but now, the away goal looms LARGE now, good luck with that Bayern.  whomever scores first, the kitchen sink comes forward.... that match should be a blast. 
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