Posted: 9/14/2018 1:08:17 PM
Roma/Chievo - PASS. with a trip to Madrid on deck, and a previous loss to Milan, not to mention drawing 3-3 in their home opener; I expect them to make quick work vs a weak Chievo team whom are already spiralling after being docked pts by the federation. but these prices are terrible. pass.
Genoa/Bologna - was hoping to get much better prices on this one but locals "smartened up" and onlines followed suit. Bologna have started the season winless getting just 1 pt vs 2 clubs whom were expected to fight relegation and then blown away by Inter right before break. they also have yet to score either. opening in the mid 200s as a road dog??? cazzo!!! but this is one of the clubs where I feel hitting the "reset" button is going to help. and they get to restart vs an opponent whom they have had success against; they are 5W-3D-1L in the past 9 H2H's vs Genoa. home side just gave up 5 their last match before break and Ballardini is going to play much more cautious. the last 10 H2H's havent seen more than 2 goals. gonna wait till Sunday to see how/if this line moves. hoping can see the outrights getting closer to the 400s.
Pending: will take this at last minute. Bologna +1/2 @-110, Bologna to win @+350
Juventus/Sass - PASS. 500 juice? if we were on the road i'd fade us. technically, we are something like 14-3-0 in home matches before UCL the past 5 years, but as i stated above, when everyone comes back from Intl break we always seem to start sluggish. though Juve is 4-0-0 with a 15/2 goal differece the past 2 years vs Sass (this includes a 7-0 drubbing last year here)..have yet to even get it out of 2nd gear it seems. Sass suprisingly is in 2nd place, right behind us; but their record in Turin is brutal. if you got cajones, might be some value in the +1.5's at decent prices. but not in mood, Allegri sending out everyone to play, i get a feeling this is another statement game. or we just might play timid and focus on Valencia; im leaning towards the latter. pass.
Udinese/Torino - interesting lines. BTTS is juiced up yet the O2.5 is better than evens; books thinking its a draw. perhaps, but small problem though is that theres only been one draw on this field in last 7 matchups. strange thing about this is that Torino have led Serie A in each of the last 2 years in total draws + road draws. ever since Torino has been building up their team and improving, theres always been goals when the visit to Udine comes. as both always seem to think they can beat the other; has a good chance at being one of the more exciting matches this weekend considering everyone is healthy and rested. plus, Belotti loves this team, has scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings. last 4 H2H's here has seen 5,6,4,5 goals and both teams have scored. hoping Torino can grab the 'w' but i just cannot trust these guys on the road yet.
Udinese/Torino over 2.5 @+102, BTTS + over 2.5 @+125
Empoli/Lazio - last year Lazio thumped ALL the bottom dwellers on the road (3-0, 5-2, 5-1) and 'Mr. Selfish' Immobile loves padding his goal stats banging 7 goals in those. and with season opening losses to Napoli & Juve now with a rested squad, this could be a long night for the newcomers. its risky taking road favs in Serie A on HC's but i like this spot.
Lazio -1.5 @+185, Empoli/Lazio over 3 @+110
and lets toss some on Immobile to score 2+ @+260
Cagliari/Milan - this is one of those H2H's which can be summed up simply ---- domination. injuries, weather, location, roster strength/weakness... whatever; Cagliari has just 1 win in like the last 15 years. which happeded to be last May in a meaningless season-ending match with Milan getting a man sent off and game winner goal was during injury-time.
the streak resumes.
Milan to win @-115
Serie B: (sunday)
Foggia/Palermo over 2.5 @+110
Bourne/Leicester - both having decent starts at top half of table with similar stats. never really too comfy with these kind of plays in this league as I always get hosed with a late one. but since '15 these two have played 6 times, 5 of them have drawn. hoping to sneak another one in there.
Bourne/Leicester draw @+250