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Sat/Sunday plays......Serie A, Sandwiches, and Stuff

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: Sat/Sunday plays......Serie A, Sandwiches, and Stuff
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 9/14/2018 12:54:25 PM
Sandwich time 

Sept 14,15,16: these 1st rounders are typically slow starters overall and to add to that, a 'wrench' thrown into it this year cuz of the stupid Nations League; not entirely sure how this will be played out.  Coaches historically use this as a 'rest' match for key players, but quite a few of these rosters have many whom have just played 1 game (for some... 2 weeks) w/out playing. last thing a coach wants to do is send a player out for the UCL whom hasnt played in two weeks; hence, with the majority healthy and rested, we just might see full strength teams + the fact nobody really likes to come off an extended break and lose right before a UCL.  

**Tott/Pool - no play.  both involved.** tempted as heck to take the draw but strangely, this scenario simply has not fared well thru the years.  played out 7 times last year with both teams involved in UCL, only hit twice. tho one of them WAS Pool (vs ManU)

Watford/ManU - +350, +260
Bilbao/Real - +450, +350
Sociedad/Barca - +600, +420
Dusseldorf/Hoffenheim - +300, +260
M'glad/Schalke - +135
Caen/Lyon - +400, +280
Toulouse/Monaco - +210, +240
Ufa/CSKA - +405, +225
Oleksandria/Shakhtar - +900, +475, +1.5 @-110
ADO/PSV - +550, +400

Schauff/Young Boys (Cup match) +750, +450 - line dropping like a brick. I love fading first time entrants into CL Groups. especially one whom gets Mou coming to town.
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 9/14/2018 12:58:12 PM
busy wknd. getting all of this out of way now:

Wknd Serie A:
really HATE these Intl breaks. last year Juve scr*wed up a few times in these spots: return from a 2 week Intl break with a midweek CL on the horizon.  h*ll, Lazio beat us in Turin and we were clobbered in Sampdoria. 2 years ago Napoli pulled a 'double' on us: 1-1 draw in Naples and then they kicked our butts out of Coppa a few days later. 
when/if we DO win? it's always a struggle. 

all clubs have to hit the 'reset' button, this makes it difficult to predict performances. 
Inter/Parma - PASS. *note* Inter getting a visit from Tott on Tuesday. Inter with a really slow start but crushed Bologna right before the break. I cant see them dropping points here, Scudetto/UCL placement next year is still the priority & Spalletti knows damn well these matches are the ones which decide it. but note, looks as if Icardi will be rested, he just flew in from across the pond and Martinez is dealing with a few nagging injuries and will be out as well --- before you make a play check the lineups. But its not wise to back them in these early starts.   ill wait till next week on them.

Napoli/Fior - if it wasnt for the break, id probably put more on this. last season here was a scoreless draw. Napoli coming off an embarrassing loss and lovely trip to Belgrade midweek and have had problems on defense. but these guys went 9-1 last year the wknd before europe (only loss was to Juve). Fior off to a decent start and were actually one of the better road teams towards the end of last year getting pts in 6 of their final 8; and this season they have a lot of firepower up front. problem for them too is injuries in the backline. should see plenty of goals in this one.
Napoli/Fior over 3.5 @+150

Frosinone/Samp - Frosinones first home match of the season (they were forced to play Bologna in neutral site due to sanctions). they have yet to score, so should be good for one here in front of their supporters.  but that defense is bad.  Samp just blew away Napoli before the break & Quag already has one 'goal-of-the-year' nominee under his belt. 
Samp TT over 1.5 @+110, Fros/Samp over 2.5 @+105
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 9/14/2018 1:08:17 PM
Sunday:
Roma/Chievo - PASS. with a trip to Madrid on deck, and a previous loss to Milan, not to mention drawing 3-3 in their home opener; I expect them to make quick work vs a weak Chievo team whom are already spiralling after being docked pts by the federation. but these prices are terrible. pass.

Genoa/Bologna - was hoping to get much better prices on this one but locals "smartened up" and onlines followed suit.  Bologna have started the season winless getting just 1 pt vs 2 clubs whom were expected to fight relegation and then blown away by Inter right before break. they also have yet to score either. opening in the mid 200s as a road dog???  cazzo!!! but this is one of the clubs where I feel hitting the "reset" button is going to help. and they get to restart vs an opponent whom they have had success against; they are 5W-3D-1L in the past 9 H2H's vs Genoa. home side just gave up 5 their last match before break and Ballardini is going to play much more cautious. the last 10 H2H's havent seen more than 2 goals.  gonna wait till Sunday to see how/if this line moves. hoping can see the outrights getting closer to the 400s.
Pending: will take this at last minute. Bologna +1/2 @-110, Bologna to win @+350

Juventus/Sass - PASS. 500 juice?  if we were on the road i'd fade us. technically, we are something like 14-3-0 in home matches before UCL the past 5 years, but as i stated above, when everyone comes back from Intl break we always seem to start sluggish.  though Juve is 4-0-0 with a 15/2 goal differece the past 2 years vs Sass (this includes a 7-0 drubbing last year here)..have yet to even get it out of 2nd gear it seems.  Sass suprisingly is in 2nd place, right behind us; but their record in Turin is brutal. if you got cajones, might be some value in the +1.5's at decent prices. but not in mood, Allegri sending out everyone to play, i get a feeling this is another statement game. or we just might play timid and focus on Valencia; im leaning towards the latter.  pass

Udinese/Torino - interesting lines. BTTS is juiced up yet the O2.5 is better than evens; books thinking its a draw. perhaps, but small problem though is that theres only been one draw on this field in last 7 matchups. strange thing about this is that Torino have led Serie A in each of the last 2 years in total draws + road draws. ever since Torino has been building up their team and improving, theres always been goals when the visit to Udine comes. as both always seem to think they can beat the other; has a good chance at being one of the more exciting matches this weekend considering everyone is healthy and rested. plus, Belotti loves this team, has scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.  last 4 H2H's here has seen 5,6,4,5 goals and both teams have scored. hoping Torino can grab the 'w' but i just cannot trust these guys on the road yet. 
Udinese/Torino over 2.5 @+102, BTTS + over 2.5 @+125

Empoli/Lazio - last year Lazio thumped ALL the bottom dwellers on the road (3-0, 5-2, 5-1) and 'Mr. Selfish' Immobile loves padding his goal stats banging 7 goals in those. and with season opening losses to Napoli & Juve now with a rested squad, this could be a long night for the newcomers. its risky taking road favs in Serie A on HC's but i like this spot.
Lazio -1.5 @+185, Empoli/Lazio over 3 @+110
and lets toss some on Immobile to score 2+ @+260

Cagliari/Milan - this is one of those H2H's which can be summed up simply ---- domination. injuries, weather, location, roster strength/weakness... whatever; Cagliari has just 1 win in like the last 15 years. which happeded to be last May in a meaningless season-ending match with Milan getting a man sent off and game winner goal was during injury-time. 
the streak resumes.
Milan to win @-115

Serie B: (sunday)
Foggia/Palermo over 2.5 @+110

EPL: (Saturday)
Bourne/Leicester - both having decent starts at top half of table with similar stats. never really too comfy with these kind of plays in this league as I always get hosed with a late one. but since '15 these two have played 6 times, 5 of them have drawn.  hoping to sneak another one in there.
Bourne/Leicester draw @+250
Tronn25 PM Tronn25
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Posted: 9/14/2018 1:09:44 PM

GL Specclover

emduece PM emduece
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Posted: 9/14/2018 1:13:02 PM
Thanks for the info 

I agree somewhat abt CSKA at first glance, will look into it later.

Have a great weekend and good luck ?
mr_bollox PM mr_bollox
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Posted: 9/14/2018 10:23:52 PM

sandwiches an_worship

as usual, some great nuggets of info.

Have a great weekend spec.

 

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 9/15/2018 7:16:58 AM
Tronn  tks
Duece  yeah buddy. we'll see how it goes.
Bollox  tks fer stopping in. those first rounds always slow starters.    Intls break kinda messes it up.   we'll see.

adding one quickly:

Serie B:
Cittadella to win @-105 

GL to all
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 9/16/2018 6:26:35 AM
cazzo!!! kicking self for not taking Parma when had the chance --- at the very least --- the HC. no time to call it in. line took off the second Spaletti made his lineup announcement. a 900+ road dog....CHE PALLE!!!!

nice day nonetheless going 3-1 in Serie A/B. gonna need more time to figure out the EPL though (laughing), dont usually start those till after 1st round UCL.   

Sandwiches a sweet 6-16 for a nice gain there with the biggie coming from Schauff.  quite happy as the 1st Rounds are historically slow going. 

todays:
locked in with Bologna +1/2 @-110, Bologna to win @+350 as stated. 

adding:
Roma TT over 2.5 @-120 - with Intl break and a major trip to Madrid looming has me cautious here but Chievos last 4 visits to Olimpico theyve conceded 3+. actually, 5 of the past 6 meetings Roma has scored 3+ and Chievos defense is poor. worth a shot. 

GL to all

piotrtoro PM piotrtoro
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Posted: 9/16/2018 8:05:04 AM

Good luck today Spec peace_5

might follow you on a few.

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 9/17/2018 11:58:42 AM
Piotr     i sure hope you didnt.  geez, that was brutal. gave a good chunk back what I got from saturday.  i usually give it around 2-3 years before even consider anything to being a 'trend' (at least in Serie A). and we're getting pretty d*mn close to it: fade the big boys with rosters chock-full-of Intl players whom are returning from Intl break. some of the biggest upsets last year were games right smack on those weekends. and here we have Parma ripping off a 1000 vs Inter, Roma blowing a 2 goal lead at home, & Lazio/Milan both blowing chunks. its bad enuff theres UCL/UEL on deck as it is. 
at least Juve managed to win, barely. noticed a bunch of juiced up road/home favs struggled this past wknd all over europe. all 4 Liga clubs struggled and heck, even Munich found themselves trailing at home fer a bit. 

have to go thru this same scenario the wknd of 10/20. actually, the Nations League is squeezed in between both UCL Rounds 2 & 3. 
 couple of interesting lines this week that has me scratching my head.  onwards & forward  
NaciremaDream PM NaciremaDream
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Posted: 9/17/2018 12:00:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by specimen24:

Piotr     i sure hope you didnt.  geez, that was brutal. gave a good chunk back what I got from saturday.  i usually give it around 2-3 years before even consider anything to being a 'trend' (at least in Serie A). and we're getting pretty d*mn close to it: fade the big boys with rosters chock-full-of Intl players whom are returning from Intl break. some of the biggest upsets last year were games right smack on those weekends. and here we have Parma ripping off a 1000 vs Inter, Roma blowing a 2 goal lead at home, & Lazio/Milan both blowing chunks. its bad enuff theres UCL/UEL on deck as it is. 
at least Juve managed to win, barely. noticed a bunch of juiced up road/home favs struggled this past wknd all over europe. all 4 Liga clubs struggled and heck, even Munich found themselves trailing at home fer a bit. 

have to go thru this same scenario the wknd of 10/20. actually, the Nations League is squeezed in between both UCL Rounds 2 & 3. 
 couple of interesting lines this week that has me scratching my head.  onwards & forward  

Thoughts on Spal today?
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