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too good to be true????

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: too good to be true????
mirchemm PM mirchemm
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Posted: 5/16/2018 3:18:46 AM

Is it just me or does Atletico Madrid @ -105 on the moneyline to win in 90 minutes seem too good to be true? I know Marseille is no pushover but i honestly can't see Atletico Madrid losing this game. Any insight welcome! Good luck everyone!

pj719 PM pj719
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Posted: 5/16/2018 5:28:18 AM

The game is in France,  that is the only thing preventing me from pounding Atletico.  Even though Madrid's defense has been excellent, the best value I see is BTTS @ +105

jonny_notes PM jonny_notes
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Posted: 5/16/2018 8:16:23 AM

Completely agree pj...seems like the books want action on Atletico, maybe they're expecting it to go to extra time. I like the value on BTTS, grabbed it at +120. 

Jacobb PM Jacobb
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Posted: 5/16/2018 8:20:36 AM

its true but i'm not that sure they will take it in the 90s... In my view better options is Antoine Griezmann To Score Anytime at 11/8

 

good luck

Jacobb PM Jacobb
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Posted: 5/16/2018 8:26:23 AM

19:45 – Rotherham vs Scunthorpe
Over 2.5 Match Goals

mr_bollox PM mr_bollox
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Posted: 5/16/2018 10:08:02 AM
yup, no money for the favs, i can see it being a draw and them winning in extra time
GENERALWIZDOM PM GENERALWIZDOM
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Posted: 5/16/2018 11:05:57 AM
1) Game is in Lyon, France... which is not home site for Marseille (lost 0-2 there earlier) and Marseille away record not so great
2) This is #4 French team vs #2 Spanish team (could Marseille beat Sevilla?)
3) The best defenses in France were PSG and Montpellier... Niether of which is as good as Atletico. In 4 games againt those teams they managed 3 goals. 2 of those came in a draw vs PSG... So thats 1 goal in 3 matches vs best defences in France. They could not score at home vs Montpellier.
4) Marseille has a leaky back line. They just gave up 3 goals to Guincamp the past weekend and, in fact, if you throw out their scoreless draw vs montpellier, they have allowed a goal in 10 straight matches and multiple goals in 7 of those.
yorosan PM yorosan
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Posted: 5/16/2018 11:13:51 AM

Finally someone point out some good stats and see atl Madrid should be the play here, this is the biggest game of the week, oddsmaker always use the line movement to distract public during europa, in fact, most faves covered in this competition( not like CL).....

i believe A Madrid ML and under should be the play here

GENERALWIZDOM PM GENERALWIZDOM
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Posted: 5/16/2018 11:13:57 AM

I think this movement is an overreaction to 2 things... Its a final and its in France. That would make a lot of people lean with draw or marseille upset... Simple fact is Payet is not 100% and they may not even have their starting centerback healthy enough.... Atletico want this trophy. Griezmann would love to score in france. Marseille is young and eye catching... Atletico is experienced and tough

Andrew1976 PM Andrew1976
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Posted: 5/16/2018 12:31:25 PM

They play in France. That’s why the line is low

Dogberto PM Dogberto
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Posted: 5/16/2018 1:12:38 PM

Don't over think it. Spain dominates club soccer take the better team

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 5/16/2018 1:14:44 PM
had a funny feeling we'd see a thread like this. firstly, the fact its being played in France means SQUAT. its a neutral ground.  the same folks whom using this reason are the same ones whom backed them on the road all year long anyways. didnt matter then, doesnt matter here. 

my 2 cents:
this is a MAJOR EUROPEAN FINAL; perhaps not as "sexy" as the CL final, but both clubs got here WHILE STILL managing to qualify for europe next year in their domestic leagues. which is not an easy chore, dont care what league one is from. 

but also, its a one-off.  this is not some 2-legged home & home affair.   one boneheaded mistake, red card, or a dumb handball/foul in the penalty area and the match gets turned upside down.     over 2 legs??   h*ll yeah, id be all over Madrid.  
keep in mind Madrid is a counter-attacking team whom take forever to figure out what to do when their opponent sits back.

the lines are priced right.  get a feeling this is gonna be a snoozefest cuz Simeone always reverts back to his comfort zone. 

GL for those backing Madrid and will be cheering them on. 

PASS for me.   better value elsewhere. 
GENERALWIZDOM PM GENERALWIZDOM
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Posted: 5/16/2018 4:48:24 PM

an_2drinks

mirchemm PM mirchemm
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Posted: 5/16/2018 5:05:04 PM
I did end up going with the gut feeling and took the moneyline!





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