Bollox: (from ystdays thread) ".... this was our look-ahead game, soft penalty for them also......." theres a word which can be used for that.
it's called getting "Oliverized". I just submitted my patent for it to have sole ownership of it
I guess the gap between Liga MX & MLS is still wide. how does a 16th place team go up to Canada and beat the defending MLS champs in the FIRST leg. shameful.
i like this card, my initial leans fell in line with the capping which makes me nervous.
Serie A:
Benevento/Atalanta - Benev. (especially Diabete whom has scored in 6 straight) have been pretty decent around the goal. atalanta really needs these points and shouldnt have many problems vs the worst defense in league.
BTTS + over 2.5 @-105
Crotone/Juventus - Crotone in middle of relegation fight, but I dont see them trying too hard here with 3 straight matches coming up vs other relegation candidates. Last year the BARELY survived, reeled off a 7 match unbeaten streak then played us in Turin and we throttled them 3-0. for Juve, Napoli coming to visit this Sunday... Allegri will probably make massive changes sinces its on short rest here. prices are waay too steep, and the HC with home side has zero value either. Crotone has played 4 of the top 5 already this year at home and have lost all with a combined 0-8 goals. and Juve has won all 3 H2H's win-to-nil.
Juve -1.5 @+106
Fiorentina/Lazio - pretty big match. Fior in great from conceding just once in past 6 but coming off a cr*p scoreless draw at home to bottom feeder SPAL; Lazio wants the UCL bid and knocked out of UEL then a tough draw in Roma derby over the weekend, this is a pretty tired team and running on fumes in 2nd half. (3rd match in 6 days, 4th in 10). Lazio knocked them out of Coppa in December so theres a measure of revenge. decent price considering the scenarios.
Fiorentina to win @+175
Napoli/Udinese - interesting one. 600 juice for this? kind of steep considering Napolis form; sure, theyre still just 6 pts behind us but they are fortunate it isnt double digits. form is terrible, scoring disappeared and Sarri has a tired bunch. and to make matters worse this is a spot they have historically underperformed in recent memory ...... the round before Juve. Udinese have lost 9 straight now and that relegation line crept closer. wouldnt dare touch the outright here; though they have won just once in last 6 meetings, all 5 of the losses were a single goal. Napoli can surely blow them away, but im a non-believer in clubs just being able to 'flip the switch on'.
Udinese +2 @+110
Verona/Sass - upset possibility/gut play. dont know why, but i just liked this one since the lines came out. relegation war, 6 pts apart with two teams polar opposite regarding form. but Sass have been brutal thru the years in the road favorite role & they also are terrible (1W-6L-2D) on those midweek/short-turnaround games. and lastly, they hate coming to this field (shared by Hellas & Chievo).have 0 wins in last 10 visits, Hellas is 4-1-0 vs them here themselves.
Verona to win @+375, Verona +1/2 @-101
Sampdoria/Bologna - for starters, its been over 10 years since the ROAD team won a match here. as I mentioned several times this year, Samp are Jekyll & Hyde home/away & have made me look stupid along the way. they have a pretty impressive home record for a mid-table team with almost a 2/1 ratio scoring/conceding & they really need the points here to get that Europe slot next season. Bologna are terrible travellers, dont let that draw vs Lazio fool you. yes, 5 wins but all were against bottom feeders. and Bologna are just another one of those teams whom are brutal in these short-turnaround games. just on pure value alone, this is my favorite of the day.
Sampdoria to win @-127, Samp + over 2.5 @+162
Torino/Milan - love the prices on Torino but theyve never beaten Milan since moving to top flight since 12/13 season (12 H2Hs). both should score here.
BTTS @-125
SPAL/Chievo - PASS