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Wednesday CL + thoughts......

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: Wednesday CL + thoughts......
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 12/6/2017 1:04:27 AM
I swear, Lukaku and Altidore are twins.

UCL: 8 match over 1.5 parlay @+286 

just going thru the whole card and i honestly cannot see any of these matches ending with 1 goal.

not overly-thrilled with some of the matchups but got one fer now:

Shakhtar/ManC over 2.5 @-118 - part 1 of my reasonings for this play is I dont think ManC will be clean-sheeted. and though the Ukranians have a beautiful chance to advance here; everything im reading has been their "needing just a point". but thats not their MO at home. which brings me to part 2: parking the bus vs a quality offense is usually a death sentence. and though DeBruyne is suspended, and Pepe might rest a few for the derby this wknd... their cupboard isnt exactly bare.  you just dont go on 20-match winning streaks while playing in the EPL with the same starting lineup anyways. But also, the Ukranians are missing TWO KEY players, Butko (defense) is injured along with Taison. even their holding midfielder is out too. and the drop off from starting lineup to reserves is much more significant. I see ManC scoring first, and then all h*ll breaks loose. 

Thoughts: need to find more info on some lineups before deciding.
Feye/Napoli - Insigne out. not good news in a must-win situation on the road; dont care whom the opponent is. Mertens is a wonderful talent but he is NOT a #1 option; theres enuff quality in this lineup to beat this opponent comfortably but im not touching that HC line. Feye showed a pulse vs ManC last round. would love to see Napoli qualify but its out of their hands. 

Pool/Spartak - 'Pool could actually get knocked out with a loss (which would prob thrill someone to no end) my worry is Klopp will over-think again & just park it and not take the risks; but I cant see their fans being all to happy about that idea. Russians dont fare very well in England.  need to find out the formation that German is starting out with.  

Maribor/Sevilla - not sure how the tiebreak works if Sevilla draws + Spartak wins. but I doubt if they will leave that to any chance. +2 on Maribor looks tempting, but that reverse fixture was utter domination and Pool beat them here by a touchdown.  

Leipzig/Besitkas - heavy lean on the -1.5.  ONLY reason I dont like this is if Porto goes up quickly on Monaco it could/will take the wind out of the Germans sails. but German teams dont roll over for anybody (especially at home), the whole lot of them. with Besitkas already clinching 1st its hard to gauge their motivation here. gonna wait till lineups fer this one. 

Real/Dort - Real should be super UN-motivated. cant catch Totty & safely in 2nd with a biggie this wknd vs Sevilla. Dort have a mass of injuries & I wonder how motivated they are for europa since theyve slipped to 6th place in Bund. the UNDER 2.5 is in the +200's. however, Ronaldo just LOVES padding his goal stats and Dort arent exactly sturdy in the back.  

Tott/APOEL - Tott playing terrible domestically, so I cant see them exerting too much effort here since theyve clinched 1st. APOEL suprisingly havent conceded 2+ goals all too often on road. and with the Europa qualification still in reach for this small club (yes, some teams really DO care about it), I expect a 200% effort. the +1.5 looks tempting. might even dabble a little on that draw. but im gonna wait for our resident Tott-expert b4 making this a "go". hey bud, is Kane in the lineup?
mjm1012 PM mjm1012
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Posted: 12/6/2017 2:21:52 AM
BOL
Buzz44 PM Buzz44
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Posted: 12/6/2017 7:07:54 AM

Hey specimen, gonna tail this....was wondering which two do u feel strongest about going over. 

Lejoker PM Lejoker
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Posted: 12/6/2017 8:34:46 AM
Hi Spec,
I THINK if Sevilla draws + Spartak wins, Sevilla will finish 3rd.
They played 2-2 at Liverpool and 3-3 at home. So Liverpool has the advantage through goals outside.
They lost 5-1 at Moscou and won 2-1 at home not enough to take the advantage.

I will wait the 15-20 minutes in Shakhtar - CIty before play the over as you said to know the Shakhtar's strategy on this game and try to get an odds advantage.

BOL
mr_bollox PM mr_bollox
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Posted: 12/6/2017 11:05:39 AM
great write-ups spec, who is this resident tott expert? While you're waiting for his 2 cents, you definitely have to wait on team news before playing, Poch won't just put a youth team out but looking at the prices, you'd want to be on Apoel in some shape or form.
LooseNotLose PM LooseNotLose
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Posted: 12/6/2017 12:11:07 PM
Spartak holds the tiebreak from what I understand due to the 6-3 advantage in h2h if I understand correctly.
BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 12/6/2017 12:29:16 PM
Cheers everyone.. 

My research shows that Tottenham will not start Kane..along with a host of other possible nonstarters.. Alli, Lloris, Ericksen, Dier, Trippier.

...H. Ming Son and LLorente might prove value in the scoring markets.

Also.. I believe Napoli will start with a 3-3-4 formation.. Mertens,Callejon,Zielinski -- Allan,Hamsik,Diawara---Maggio,Albiol,Koulibaly,Hysay.

...Very true about Mertens.. Would have been nice to see Milik within their scheme..needed size in the box which they needed vs Juve last match.


Keep an eye out for Foden(ManCity) if he gets playing time.




BigGameBubba PM BigGameBubba
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Posted: 12/6/2017 12:37:08 PM
Still best to wait for lineups though to be 100%.
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 12/6/2017 12:43:23 PM
still giddy with Basel.   next up?  Toronto @+600.   

the more I look into it, the more Im not liking this card, so I just plunked a little more on the 1.5, and tossed a little on the

over  2.5 @+3185.  why not? all those defensive gurus pacing the sidlelines saw their teams playing yesterday.  lets light up the scoreboard. 

Unlike yesterday, today theres a lot of teams whom really have nothing to play for & this involves 7 out of the 8 games on the card. toss in the fact that a few of them have some pretty big matches domestically this wknd so aside from ManC, Im leery of this variable. and cska ystday showed everyone just how quickly a teams mentality/focus can change in a heartbeat. 

mjm 
Loose, tks.  i dont expect sevilla to have problems but the game still gotta be played.

Buzz Im assuming ur speaking of the 2.5 O/U's so put a gun to my head and id have to give the nod to Real/Dort & Pool/Spartak..... but they are waaay too juiced up for me. 

Joker , if ya followed Shakhtar (or simply just check their CL results in recent years) youll see a noticeable difference in their home/away stats. and I remember that 1st leg vs Napoli, they sure as heck didnt "park it". and when ya approach a match saying ur gonna do something which you arent normally accustomed to doing, bad stuff usually happens. ppl say ManC will focus on derby -- and in a lot of ways I DO believe that -- but theyve had  a comfy lead in the EPL fer a while now, at least to the point where they could easily have said "ehhh, lets just get 'em next week". i think they were down in the 2nd half in 3 straight now yet still came back to win. yes, CL is a different animal, but that shows a LOT of character, and i dont like messing around with win streaks, dont care who it is either. so, my 'exception to my "rule" above' 

ManC to win @+150 - just cant pass this up. 

Bollox, as always.   aint got the desire to dig into Totts psyche, as much as I love the "situational" angle for Apoel, this is STILL an EPL team on the road they are playing.  there will be better value some other time. 

regarding that Tott expert? yeah... i dont think you were around (smiling) but....  there was this guy whom came in last week and said they were gonna be the UCL champs this year.   can you believe that?     
sometimes ya read the craziest stuff on this forum.   i mean.....  everyone KNOWS Juve gonna win this year. right buddy? i think that guy had one too many tequilas, he probably ate the worm too & shoved another bottle in his pants trying to smuggle it across the border out there. 

GL to all
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 12/6/2017 12:52:39 PM
BigGame    tks fer stopping in.   yeah, about Napoli.  as myself a Serie A fan (and judging from your logo there you too.)  i really do hope they can somehow find a way thru, but its out of their hands.  they really did catch some bad luck with Milliks injury this year. but it is what it is.   and their style is fun to watch. hes expected back in jan/feb i believe,  so when the knockouts come around they'll be healthy again, rested a little from break and could give anyone in europe a run for their money.  we'll see. 
Lejoker PM Lejoker
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Posted: 12/6/2017 1:07:17 PM
Spec,
I followed effectively but M.C. is the most dangerous team in counter attack and Napoli paid the consequence to try to play an offensive football against them.
I agree with you when you distort your way to play, it isn't usually the best approach but they could find a compromise between park the bus and try to keep their style at any cost. Let's see 

BOL
SettleDownSpaz PM SettleDownSpaz
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Posted: 12/6/2017 1:19:30 PM
Specimen - good luck today buddy.  I have to agree, looking over things, finding it hard to see most stay under.  I am playing one contrarian under in Germany, but that probably means it will finish as a 5-4 final 
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 12/6/2017 1:37:12 PM
joker    though you might not believe me since im a Juve fan,  i still believe the best way to beat an offensive minded team is to attack them.  if ukranians park it, their fans gonna be sitting on pins & needles.  i DO know a thing or two about that feeling.  LOL 

Settle    hoping to see 1 goal by the half in all the matches. we'll see. 
Buzz44 PM Buzz44
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Posted: 12/6/2017 4:38:40 PM

Nice call Specimen

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 12/6/2017 6:29:58 PM
Buzz  

quickly adding here 

Copa Sud: Finals, 1st leg. 
Independiente to win @-115
Independ/Flamengo over 2 @+125, over 2.5 @+187 (smaller) - yet another Argentine/Brazil clash; cant believe these prices; but then again, 1st legs are usually cautious.  however, Indep will want to make sure they have the advantage heading into the 2nd leg; this squad has scored 2+ goals in each home match during this competition and have won by 2+ each time. Brazilians haven't performed well on the road of late in Serie A which probably falls in line with Guerrero (Peru) being suspended though I dont follow this team much; but they have scored in 4 of their 5 roadies in this competition.  and have conceded in 9 out of last 10 roadies. nice price for the home win. 
mr_bollox PM mr_bollox
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Posted: 12/6/2017 11:33:12 PM
lol spec, , a certain team in North London did have the best record of all the teams in this year's CL group stages, 

great call on all over 1.5 
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 12/7/2017 11:36:38 AM
Bollox , tks ya know, I didnt realize till recently I missed that 2.5 by a butt-hair.  accidenti!!!!!!

hey, that shouldnt count cuz you got to play APOEL twice 

seriously tho, all these squads are deserving.  Real, Chels, Juve, Bayern, Sev   ALL in 2nd???      and with Chels not being allowed to play any of their EPL buddies + Roma,  theres some barnburners coming up in knockouts.
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