I've been reviewing box scores and analyzing game logs for the past hour and I think the cap on this game comes down to one thing... experience.
Trevor Lawrence has had an unbelievable year and will likely be an all-time great NCAA QB; however, when you look at the number of competitive games he has played this year it is minimal. As far as I can tell, the best defense he has squared up with may be South Carolina, which is a middle of the road football team. (Decent defense). Also, random side note, Jake Bentle threw for 500 against Clemson? (won't take a lot from this but wow).
When we talk about NFL Rookies we always caution against backing them, particularly against great defenses. How is this game any different? Could Trevor Lawrence come out and carve this defense up the way Jake Fromm did in the 1H of the SECCG? I think that he could... However, you simply have to play the odds of a talent-rich elite defense squaring up against a kid that has played a handful of games above High School competition.
I laid a +550 futures bet on Clemson but have fully hedged those funds towards Alabama. If T. Lawrence can come out and throw 35+ times at productive levels and without turnovers, I'll simply tip the cap. Gotta take the odds here.
I've been reviewing box scores and analyzing game logs for the past hour and I think the cap on this game comes down to one thing... experience.
Trevor Lawrence has had an unbelievable year and will likely be an all-time great NCAA QB; however, when you look at the number of competitive games he has played this year it is minimal. As far as I can tell, the best defense he has squared up with may be South Carolina, which is a middle of the road football team. (Decent defense). Also, random side note, Jake Bentle threw for 500 against Clemson? (won't take a lot from this but wow).
When we talk about NFL Rookies we always caution against backing them, particularly against great defenses. How is this game any different? Could Trevor Lawrence come out and carve this defense up the way Jake Fromm did in the 1H of the SECCG? I think that he could... However, you simply have to play the odds of a talent-rich elite defense squaring up against a kid that has played a handful of games above High School competition.
I laid a +550 futures bet on Clemson but have fully hedged those funds towards Alabama. If T. Lawrence can come out and throw 35+ times at productive levels and without turnovers, I'll simply tip the cap. Gotta take the odds here.
Actually, outside of Notre Dame in the playoff game (ranked #6 defense), South Carolina would have been the 5th best defense that Clemson faced this year. The toughest defense they faced was Pitt (#29). Followed by A&M (#34), Syracuse (#35), BC (#37) then S Carolina (#43). These numbers are from Massey as of this moment.
Actually, outside of Notre Dame in the playoff game (ranked #6 defense), South Carolina would have been the 5th best defense that Clemson faced this year. The toughest defense they faced was Pitt (#29). Followed by A&M (#34), Syracuse (#35), BC (#37) then S Carolina (#43). These numbers are from Massey as of this moment.
I'll be honest I don't know what Massey is but my judgment is that the rank of the defense is influenced by the level of competition. Notre Dame's resume is hot garbage imo. Their defensive metrics mean minimal to me when compared to elite teams.
Even by your numbers, S. Carolina was only 14 spots behind the 2nd best defense they have faced. Also, Bryant played the majority of the game against A&M (the 3rd best) and Lawrence's numbers were terrible against Pitt. defense (2nd best). Lawrence threw for 93 yards against Syracuse (4th best)... Great game against BC (5th best)... Congratulations...
I'll be honest I don't know what Massey is but my judgment is that the rank of the defense is influenced by the level of competition. Notre Dame's resume is hot garbage imo. Their defensive metrics mean minimal to me when compared to elite teams.
Even by your numbers, S. Carolina was only 14 spots behind the 2nd best defense they have faced. Also, Bryant played the majority of the game against A&M (the 3rd best) and Lawrence's numbers were terrible against Pitt. defense (2nd best). Lawrence threw for 93 yards against Syracuse (4th best)... Great game against BC (5th best)... Congratulations...
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